Racing Nerd

A good start is half the battle as they say, but it is still very early days in the 2026 Festival. I think Wednesday is probably the toughest day of this year's festival and I don't have the same ante-post positions either. It does get easier (in my opinion) later in the week so I will be threading carefully again on day two.  The importance of being prominent was one of the big clues from day one and I hope all three of my additional selections will be ridden positively.  Twenty-two runners (not a typo!!!!) go to post in the Turners Novices' Hurdle, the Grade 1 that opens the card. I haven't checked the stats, but I know it has been a long time since a Grade 1 novice had that field size. The changes to the festival handicaps have certainly helped add depth to these contests, with plenty of these likely to have been taking that route if the old rule of three qualifying runs applied. There are question marks over the Irish novices after the Supreme, but I feel like the b...

The 2026 Cheltenham festival is finally upon us and after months of anticipation, the waiting is almost over. For casual fans reading this, this year's festival looks incredibly competitive and with the added complication of horses running on soft ground all winter and now facing decent ground, caution is advised. That is certainly the way I'll be approaching the opening day, although admittedly a good ante-post book will help too. The opening contest is a prime example of the competitiveness on show in this year's festival. This promises to be one of the races of the week, with many bubbles burst. I've been firmly in the Old Park Star camp since his impressive win at Cheltenham in December (advised at 14/1 on Attheraces) and while there is plenty of potential in this field, I feel he sets a very high standard. His time was good at Cheltenham even if he didn't beat much and he was better again at Haydock, when he quickened off a strong pace. That bodes well for this...

Horses for courses ·          Be Proud (Doncaster 4.25) – 67% strike-rate from his 3 starts at Doncaster. ·          Empire Steel (Kelso 1.29) – Has won 3 of his 4 starts at the track.   Going the distance ·          Red Rookie (Cheltenham 1.15) – Has won 5 of his 7 completed starts over 2m (beaten a neck in one of those defeats).   Course and Distance form ·          Mustazeed (Doncaster 3.50) – 1 win and 1 place from his 2 starts over this course and distance. ·          Lord Accord (Cheltenham 2.25) – Won on his only previous start over course and distance.   No grounds for concern ·          Aberama Gold (Doncaster 3.20) – Boasts a perfect 100% record (2 from 2) in handicaps on heavy ground. Doncaster is curr...

  Percentage Plays – Sample article (14 th October)   Horses for courses (Course form) ·          Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – 67% at the course, with form figures of 112. ·          Knappers Hill (Chepstow 3.10) – Perfect 3 from 3 at Chepstow. ·          Sonigino (Chepstow 4.15) – 100% record at Chepstow, 2 wins from as many starts here.   Going the distance ·          La Yakel (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) at the distance. ·          Montassib (York 2.25) – 1 win from 2 starts at six furlongs, having raced mostly over further. ·          Stag Night (Naas 4.00) – 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance. ·          Unequal Love (Newmarket 5.00) – 100% record at 6f, 3 wi...

 I have been looking at the Mares Hurdle for quite some time, trying to find an angle into it and I believe the one that is wildly overpriced is Heaven Help Us. I don't want to take the chance that she wins today and the price goes so I'm going to suggest backing her now. It would not be the end of the world if she doesn't win today as I think she is better at two and a half miles, while it is also harder to dominate from the front on the New Course. I have been going through those at the head of the market for a while and there are plenty of question marks. At this juncture, I think it is fair to say that there is certainly no superstar in the field and Paul Hennessy's Coral Cup winner holds claims to match most at the very least. Her current price is an insult to her ability and her profile. She is taking a similar rout to last year's winner Black Tears in that she also ran in the Coral Cup the previous year (and the year before that). Black Tears was second in th...

 It looks like it will certainly be an interesting day of racing tomorrow with a host of top quality stars in action. The horse I am most looking forward to seeing, like many of you I'm sure, is Bob Olinger in the Beginners Chase at Gowran. It is quite a decent contest and the fact that he is 1/3 against such opposition tells you all you need to know. He is one of the most exciting horses in training either side of the Irish Sea and while I won't be attempting to buy money at that price, I can't wait to see him jump a fence. The other horse I am excited about is Defi Du Seuil, who is on a redemption mission at Ascot later in the afternoon. He is a horse I love and the noises out of the yard have been quite encouraging. Hopefully, he is back to something like his best and I think this is just about his right trip. It is not impossible, given he did redeem himself two years ago when he had a brilliant season prior to Cheltenham after disappointing the year before. Fingers cro...

 Cheltenham is back and I simply cannot hide my excitement for this meeting as it is one of my favourite weekends of the season. I think perhaps it has something to do with the hope and aspirations for the jumps season ahead. At this time of year, there is hardly a day that goes by without a "potential" Grade 1 horse making their debut over either hurdles or fences. Of course, the results vary and there are plenty of bubbles burst! Looking ahead to tomorrow and the feature Paddy Power Gold Cup looks a cracking contest and one could make a reasonable case for at least half of the field. Those of you who read my Eyecatchers column on Attheraces will have seen that I mentioned the run of Zanza in the Haldon Gold Cup recently and I think he looks tailor made for this test, despite having course figures of 60FP.  His run here last December when he fell 3 out in the race won by Sky Pirate was enough to suggest the course should not be a problem. It was probably too far out to know ...

 It is a huge weekend of racing with the Breeder's Cup undoubtedly the highlight in Del Mar where the best of Europe travel to take on the American's on home soil. While I enjoy the spectacle, I don't have a deep knowledge of the American racing. For that reason, the Breeder's Cup is more of a fun event than any kind of financial event for me personally, although I did think Mother Earth and Love were both interesting for Aidan O'Brien who certainly knows how to win at the meeting. Love in particular has suffered as a result of the lack of opposition she faced last season. While she was probably over-rated last season, she has almost gone full circle now and could potentially be under-rated. Things haven't really worked out for her either, but I thought her effort last time was a fair one, considering it was clearly a prep for the Arc (which she later missed).  She won at Royal Ascot on her seasonal reappearance and given the Ballydoyle string come forward subst...

 The stars of the jumping discipline are slowly starting to reappear and this weekend represents a milestone in that regard, with many of the bigger names making their seasonal return. Minella Indo is perhaps the biggest of those, with the Gold Cup winner headlining an excellent card at Down Royal. He can be a bit in and out at times and with conditions far removed from his optimum, a watching brief is advised.  The card also features the return of Envoi Allen. I would love to see him return to his brilliant best and that would really whet the appetite for the season ahead. I will also be paying close attention to the Charlie Hall and in particular Shan Blue who might enhance his King George claims and make current odds of 33/1 look rather silly. I will wait and take my chance that a fresh Cyrname is too strong.  In terms of a betting proposition on Saturday, I thought the Ascot card was the most appealing. Vinndication is a warm favourite for the Handicap Chase at 3.20, ...

 Cheltenham is very much in the spotlight this weekend but it looks a tricky card on Saturday and I must admit I found it difficult to find a bet. A number of those that did catch my eye at Cheltenham were a little shorter than expected. I was tempted to leave it alone and use it as an informative card going forward rather than trying to force a bet. However, I was drawn to an old friend who did the column a few favours last season, particularly here at the December meeting when he returned to the minimum trip. Since then, he has been extremely progressive, culminating in a success at the Festival in the Grand Annual. Of course, the horse is Sky Pirate and returning to his ideal conditions can go close in the handicap chase at 3.30, despite having to shoulder top weight. As mentioned, he finished last season winning the Grand Annual (off 7lbs lower) and went up 25lb in all in the ratings from his December win. Given his run style though, we may not have seen the best of him yet and...

 We have an incredible day of racing ahead of us today at Ascot and I am struggling to remember a card of such quality in my time involved in the sport. The Long Distance Cup promises to be another brilliant renewal while the Champions Sprint is as open as the betting suggests. While it may lack a genuine superstar, there are plenty of very good horses in here, a brief reprieve for those that long for bigger fields in Group races.  The easist of the Group 1 races is the Fillies and Mares where Snowfall wins if she turns up at 80% or better. She is a class apart to this field on all her form this year, even the slightly lesser efforts. The QEII has pretty much all the top milers that you want with the exception of the recently retired Poetic Flare.  It features Palace Pier, who has been pretty much flawless since winning his first Group 1 here at the Royal meeting in the summer of 2020, and Baaeed, the possible heir to the throne. There are plenty of other possibles though...

 While we may be more familiar with Irish and UK classics from a geographical point of view, the Arc is the best flat race in the world from a ratings perspective. The fact that we have what has been widely touted as the best Arc in a long time tells you all you need to know about the quality of today's field. From the moment she crossed the line in second in the Irish Champion Stakes I felt Tarnawa would win and nothing since has changed my mind, even though I am not as definitive as I was then. She has a good draw and should cope with conditions. The problem is that while she is in a stall that you want to be in, she will require luck in running and it is a large field of horses to get through, enhancing the possibility of traffic problems.  I think the winner will come from one of those at the top of the market and the two Godolphin representatives head those along with Snowfall. The draw and the conditions have brought Hurricane Lane right into it and he has replaced Tarna...

 There is an incredible weekend of racing approaching with the highlight undoubtedly the eagerly awaited Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. Tomorrow is an able appetiser though, with decent action at Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp. The Prix du Cadran is the highlight from a spectator's point of view but doesn't appeal as an attractive betting heat.  Value can come in all shapes and sizes, and indeed at various prices too and I believe there are a few near the head of the market at Ascot tomorrow that represent value despite being favourite or vying for that position. In the opening contest, Highfield Princess has the best form on offer and has been admirably consistent at a higher level since winning a Listed race at Chelmsford in July. The pick of those was a high class effort in the Group 2 City of York Stakes when she chased home Space Blues. On that occasion, she had Glorious Journey and Sir Busker among those in behind and there is nothing of that standard in opposi...

 We were treated to a performance of the highest quality from Mishriff yesterday on the opening day of the Ebor Festival. He stamped his authority all over a strong field, who admittedly had their various limitations exposed. Still, it has hard to take away from the winner given the manner of the victory and he has been an exceptional horse for connections, particularly David Egan.  Hopefully we will see more of the same in the Yorkshire Oaks today. Snowfall has already produced a "wow" performance at Epsom this year. That performance has since been the subject of much debate and the question remains is she as good as she looked on that occasion. While she was impressive both prior and subsequent to that Oaks win, it certainly appears a standout piece of form and there may have been mitigating circumstances that led to the margin of victory. That performance aside, there isn't too much between herself and Wonderful Tonight. She faces a major question mark of her own of co...

 I have been rather quiet on here due to other commitments recently, but I am looking forward to a wonderful week of racing at York this week for the Ebor Festival. I will hopefully have something each day but a week like this really is about enjoying the quality on show. There are so many intriguing contests throughout the week it is hard to pick one. I simply cannot wait to see Snowfall take on Wonderful Tonight (hopefully) in the Yorkshire Oaks and the Nunthorpe looks mouthwatering too.  More on those later in the week but there is a quality card today too, not least the emerging talent in the Acomb Stakes, that looks a Group 3 in name only. Ehraz is a horse that I have like since his promising debut effort behind the re-opposing Noble Truth at Newmarket. He confirmed that promise with an effortless win at Ascot next time. While the jury is still out on the form of that Ascot win, the closing sectionals suggest it was the performance of a Group horse, backing up the visual ...

 Undoubtedly, there are mixed opinions about the benefits of the Shergar Cup to racing. Team events within the sport are even more in the spotlight at the moment with the recent addition of the Racing League. What I will say on the matter is that we need to attract more people to have an interest in the sport. As I have a number of friends who are not interested in racing, I believe the "team aspect" can have some impact in that regard.  While the colours may confuse regular racing followers, it certainly makes it easier for those that do not spend their Saturday's regularly watching the racing. I am reserving judgement on the racing league and am slightly disappointed by the wealth of criticism it has received. What is the alternative? To simply continue down the same road. We must be willing to change, adapt and attract new people to the sport. Anyway, attracting new people to the sport is (probably) not going to be solved today but we might be able to find a winner at ...

 While the Irish Oaks at the Curragh is the highlight of tomorrow's racing in terms of prestige, even the most enthusiastic of fans would struggle to consider it a vintage renewal this year. The race does present us with another opportunity to see the wildly impressive Epsom Oaks winner, Snowfall. I doubt we will learn very much about her tomorrow apart from that she is in full health as the race lacks any realistic challengers on all known form.  There is a competitive supporting card but for a bet I decided to look to Newbury instead and the proverbial "group horse in a handicap" potentially rearing it's head once more. I am a huge fan of Rodrigo Diaz and he has been incredibly progressive over the past twelve months or so. It has co-incided with his partnership with Jamie Spencer and the pair have combined for four wins and two placed efforts from six starts. Having comfortably progressed through the ranks last season with three wins from much lower marks, he has...

 It really is a Super Saturday on the racing front with quality action at York and Ascot, as well as of course the final day of the July festival from Newmarket. The feature at Newmarket is the eagerly awaited July Cup. This race promises to be one of the best sprint races we have seen in a very long time in the UK. There is quantity as well as quality with a large field of 19 set to take their chance in a clash of generations. The fact that nine of the runners are officially rated 114 or above means that there is a fair chance it will take a performance of the highest quality, particularly from any of the older horses having to concede 6lb to a host of progressive three year old's. Interestingly, the last ten renewals are split evenly between those, but I have a feeling that the younger horses will come out on top on this occasion.  The starting point when looking at the three year old's is the Commonwealth Cup, despite it not being as informative as it may have been if geldi...

 The second day of the festival sees a very promising card, more appealing to this pair of eyes than the Thursday card certainly. From the opening maiden to the concluding 5f handicap, there was something that caught my attention. However, as regular readers will know by now, that is not my style. I just hope that if I have read any of the races right that they are the ones I have included!!  The opening contest, while not a betting race for me personally sees an interesting one from the Charlie Appleby stable. Noble Truth was third behind July Stakes winner Lusail over course and distance on debut and in my opinion that rates close enough to the form of Chesham fourth Sweeping to suggest they should be closer in the betting than they currently are.  The following handicap is the first port of call in terms of selections and I believe the Mark Johnston trained King Frankel is worth another chance after a string of good efforts. He was a good second in the London Gold Cup...

 It is the opening day of the July Festival at Headquarters tomorrow and it presents a very competitive card to commence festivities. I felt the other days present more betting opportunities if I'm honest and contemplated keeping my powder dry entirely. I had no strong opinion regarding taking on Al Aasy given the opposition he faces as they are far inferior on all known form. Stowell was a tentative selection but not a bet at the prices in the Bahrain Trophy and I had a rather large shortlist for the 6f handicap.  In the end, I decided I couldn't let Eldrickjones go unsupported at the current price based on the impression he left on me at Royal Ascot in the Coventry. Having travelled ominously well on that occasion, he was stopped in his tracks inside the 2f pole (having waited patiently behind a wall of horses up to that point) when making his initial challenge. Once he re-gathered his momentum, he came with an eye-catching late run, despite racing on the part of the track ...