Racing Nerd

Horses for courses ·          Be Proud (Doncaster 4.25) – 67% strike-rate from his 3 starts at Doncaster. ·          Empire Steel (Kelso 1.29) – Has won 3 of his 4 starts at the track.   Going the distance ·          Red Rookie (Cheltenham 1.15) – Has won 5 of his 7 completed starts over 2m (beaten a neck in one of those defeats).   Course and Distance form ·          Mustazeed (Doncaster 3.50) – 1 win and 1 place from his 2 starts over this course and distance. ·          Lord Accord (Cheltenham 2.25) – Won on his only previous start over course and distance.   No grounds for concern ·          Aberama Gold (Doncaster 3.20) – Boasts a perfect 100% record (2 from 2) in handicaps on heavy ground. Doncaster is curr...

  Percentage Plays – Sample article (14 th October)   Horses for courses (Course form) ·          Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – 67% at the course, with form figures of 112. ·          Knappers Hill (Chepstow 3.10) – Perfect 3 from 3 at Chepstow. ·          Sonigino (Chepstow 4.15) – 100% record at Chepstow, 2 wins from as many starts here.   Going the distance ·          La Yakel (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) at the distance. ·          Montassib (York 2.25) – 1 win from 2 starts at six furlongs, having raced mostly over further. ·          Stag Night (Naas 4.00) – 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance. ·          Unequal Love (Newmarket 5.00) – 100% record at 6f, 3 wi...

 I have been looking at the Mares Hurdle for quite some time, trying to find an angle into it and I believe the one that is wildly overpriced is Heaven Help Us. I don't want to take the chance that she wins today and the price goes so I'm going to suggest backing her now. It would not be the end of the world if she doesn't win today as I think she is better at two and a half miles, while it is also harder to dominate from the front on the New Course. I have been going through those at the head of the market for a while and there are plenty of question marks. At this juncture, I think it is fair to say that there is certainly no superstar in the field and Paul Hennessy's Coral Cup winner holds claims to match most at the very least. Her current price is an insult to her ability and her profile. She is taking a similar rout to last year's winner Black Tears in that she also ran in the Coral Cup the previous year (and the year before that). Black Tears was second in th...

 It looks like it will certainly be an interesting day of racing tomorrow with a host of top quality stars in action. The horse I am most looking forward to seeing, like many of you I'm sure, is Bob Olinger in the Beginners Chase at Gowran. It is quite a decent contest and the fact that he is 1/3 against such opposition tells you all you need to know. He is one of the most exciting horses in training either side of the Irish Sea and while I won't be attempting to buy money at that price, I can't wait to see him jump a fence. The other horse I am excited about is Defi Du Seuil, who is on a redemption mission at Ascot later in the afternoon. He is a horse I love and the noises out of the yard have been quite encouraging. Hopefully, he is back to something like his best and I think this is just about his right trip. It is not impossible, given he did redeem himself two years ago when he had a brilliant season prior to Cheltenham after disappointing the year before. Fingers cro...

 Cheltenham is back and I simply cannot hide my excitement for this meeting as it is one of my favourite weekends of the season. I think perhaps it has something to do with the hope and aspirations for the jumps season ahead. At this time of year, there is hardly a day that goes by without a "potential" Grade 1 horse making their debut over either hurdles or fences. Of course, the results vary and there are plenty of bubbles burst! Looking ahead to tomorrow and the feature Paddy Power Gold Cup looks a cracking contest and one could make a reasonable case for at least half of the field. Those of you who read my Eyecatchers column on Attheraces will have seen that I mentioned the run of Zanza in the Haldon Gold Cup recently and I think he looks tailor made for this test, despite having course figures of 60FP.  His run here last December when he fell 3 out in the race won by Sky Pirate was enough to suggest the course should not be a problem. It was probably too far out to know ...

 It is a huge weekend of racing with the Breeder's Cup undoubtedly the highlight in Del Mar where the best of Europe travel to take on the American's on home soil. While I enjoy the spectacle, I don't have a deep knowledge of the American racing. For that reason, the Breeder's Cup is more of a fun event than any kind of financial event for me personally, although I did think Mother Earth and Love were both interesting for Aidan O'Brien who certainly knows how to win at the meeting. Love in particular has suffered as a result of the lack of opposition she faced last season. While she was probably over-rated last season, she has almost gone full circle now and could potentially be under-rated. Things haven't really worked out for her either, but I thought her effort last time was a fair one, considering it was clearly a prep for the Arc (which she later missed).  She won at Royal Ascot on her seasonal reappearance and given the Ballydoyle string come forward subst...