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Saturday 2nd October

 There is an incredible weekend of racing approaching with the highlight undoubtedly the eagerly awaited Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. Tomorrow is an able appetiser though, with decent action at Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp. The Prix du Cadran is the highlight from a spectator's point of view but doesn't appeal as an attractive betting heat. 

Value can come in all shapes and sizes, and indeed at various prices too and I believe there are a few near the head of the market at Ascot tomorrow that represent value despite being favourite or vying for that position. In the opening contest, Highfield Princess has the best form on offer and has been admirably consistent at a higher level since winning a Listed race at Chelmsford in July. The pick of those was a high class effort in the Group 2 City of York Stakes when she chased home Space Blues. On that occasion, she had Glorious Journey and Sir Busker among those in behind and there is nothing of that standard in opposition here. 

There are, numerically speaking at least, plenty in opposition but a number of them fall short of the form required to win at this level. With Thanks would be a danger if the heavens opened but her best form has come in really testing conditions and it might not be quite that bad tomorrow. Soft ground shouldn't be an issue for the selection although if it it did get heavy that is a bit of an unknown.

Glen Shiel might well get his ideal conditions for the first time since his very good second in the Diamond Jubilee at the Royal meeting in June. He chased home Dream of Dreams in that Group 1 contest with Art Power back in third. That was his second excellent effort over course and distance considering he won the Champions Sprint here last October. He is unpenalised for that Group 1 success in this Group 3 and with the exception of Great Ambassador I don't see too many real dangers. As a result, I think there is plenty of value in the 7/2 and would have him not much more than a 2/1 shot if the forecast rain arrives.

Elsewhere, the Sun Chariot is a very good contest where I was just favouring Snow Lantern. The milers have been beating each other though and it is quite a deep contest so no value at the current price available. I prefer the two market leaders at Ascot with less depth to the respective races. It is one of those days where I didn't see too much jump out at bigger prices even though it is a time of year where you do get surprise results.


1pt win Highfield Princess (3/1 General) Ascot  1.30


1pt win Glen Shiel (7/2 Bet365, 10/3 General) Ascot 3.15


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 105.5 points

Total Returned: 146.25 points

Total Profit: 40.75 points


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