I have been rather quiet on here due to other commitments recently, but I am looking forward to a wonderful week of racing at York this week for the Ebor Festival. I will hopefully have something each day but a week like this really is about enjoying the quality on show. There are so many intriguing contests throughout the week it is hard to pick one. I simply cannot wait to see Snowfall take on Wonderful Tonight (hopefully) in the Yorkshire Oaks and the Nunthorpe looks mouthwatering too.
More on those later in the week but there is a quality card today too, not least the emerging talent in the Acomb Stakes, that looks a Group 3 in name only. Ehraz is a horse that I have like since his promising debut effort behind the re-opposing Noble Truth at Newmarket. He confirmed that promise with an effortless win at Ascot next time. While the jury is still out on the form of that Ascot win, the closing sectionals suggest it was the performance of a Group horse, backing up the visual impression he made.
Noble Truth was impressive himself in the aforementioned Newmarket race but given how the race panned out and with the benefit of experience, one might expect Ehraz to turn the tables. Dubawi Legend looked a Group horse himself at Doncaster and with a penultimate furlong of 10.56, the drop to 6f should not inconvenience him. They look three excellent two-year-olds and I found it hard to split them, just like the bookmakers. For what it's worth, I would expect Andrew Balding's Imperial Fighter to take a step forward from his Goodwood win. I have a soft spot for Ehraz but it is marginal enough to leave the race alone from a betting point of view.
The Juddmonte was robbed of some of it's appeal with the late defection of St Mark's Basilica from a neutral viewpoint certainly. While it may be a more lively betting contest now, it doesn't appeal to me as a race I want to get involved in. I feel we haven't seen the best of Love this year but perhaps that is her level and she has been exposed by better opposition.
Alcohol Free is the one that really interests me as I think her form is arguably the best in the race, beating Poetic Flare last time. Of course, that was over a mile and it is impossible to say for sure (while of course we can predict) if she will stay or not. Everything that I have seen to date from her tells me she probably won't but if, and it is a big if, she settles quickly under Oisin, she might have a chance. If I saw a little more hope that she would stay, she would be the play but I think I'll sit it out.
One I can't sit out is probably the most difficult race on the card, the opening 5f handicap. The reason being centred around a recent piece I wrote for Attheraces.com where I mention Michael Dods' excellent record here, particularly with his 5f horses. He is +£29.91 to a £1 each-way stake at this meeting over the past five years over this distance with from figures of 011123140120.
He runs two here but of his pair I like Pendleton, who has plenty going for him aside from his trainer's record. He is 2/2 over the trip and has a course and distance win in May off just 5lb lower. He has been incredibly consistent prior to the Ascot blip last time, the only time he was outside of the first five in 14 career starts. The ground would be a slight concern, as his two wins have come on soft but he has some creditable efforts on good ground too, notably a second here in 2019 over 6f.
He has gone well fresh before and everything looks in place for a big run with the likely strong pace sure to suit. El Astronaute and Major Jumbo are both drawn in close proximity so he should get a nice toe into the race and I would be hopeful he can make the frame.
0.5pt eway Pendleton (12/1 General) York 1.50 *use BOG firms, 6+ places
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 103.5 points
Total Returned: 146.25 points
Total Profit: 42.75 points
Comments
Post a Comment