A good start is half the battle as they say, but it is still very early days in the 2026 Festival. I think Wednesday is probably the toughest day of this year's festival and I don't have the same ante-post positions either. It does get easier (in my opinion) later in the week so I will be threading carefully again on day two.
The importance of being prominent was one of the big clues from day one and I hope all three of my additional selections will be ridden positively.
Twenty-two runners (not a typo!!!!) go to post in the Turners Novices' Hurdle, the Grade 1 that opens the card. I haven't checked the stats, but I know it has been a long time since a Grade 1 novice had that field size. The changes to the festival handicaps have certainly helped add depth to these contests, with plenty of these likely to have been taking that route if the old rule of three qualifying runs applied.
There are question marks over the Irish novices after the Supreme, but I feel like the better novices from the home contingent ran in the festival opener. No Drama This End is solid at the top of the market, but I've felt with a long time that he might be vulnerable on decent ground over this trip. I have struggled to find the alternative but I'm going to chance Sortudo for Willie Mullins.
I'm not sure if Closutton know their best novice, but he is the one that has impressed me the most. I thought he was visually impressive in winning his maiden when the yard were struggling and then shaped like the best horse in the Ballymore at Naas (formerly the Lawlor's), usually a good guide to the festival.
He was keen that day for Patrick and just didn't quite see it out in testing conditions. He is a slick hurdler and the omission of hurdles in the straight last time definitely counted against him. The selection will appreciate the nicer ground too and I think he is the one that's overpriced. I have heard plenty about Sober and had warmed to him, but the price/value is gone now.
The ground has gone for my ante-post selection in the Brown Advisory, The Big Westerner. While I thought the easy side of good to soft would be acceptable, it appears as though it will ride quicker than that. I am one of her biggest fans, but it is almost all hope remaining in the 16/1 docket that looked good for some time.
I was all over her stablemate Koktail Divin for the novice handicap, but I can't let him go unbacked here as I think this is a 160+ horse. I am unsure if he will stay, but the stable clearly think he will. Having spoken to Darragh O'Keeffe about him at a recent preview, he is convinced he will stay and I could tell he really likes the horse. I thought his display at Leopardstown when beating a decent field of novices was spectacular and up with anything novice chasers have produced this season.
He was behind Romeo Coolio earlier in the season, but he seems to have improved with each run. I'm a big fan of Romeo Coolio but I've made no secret of the fact that I don't like his campaign and he has had a couple of tough races too. It is far from an ideal preparation and while I don't think stamina would be an issue with a more orthodox campaign, I just feel there is enough doubt considering his price.
This is a good race and 2/1 or so is quite short when there are several dangers. Final Demand needs to bounce back after a soft effort at the DRF, while Kaid D'authie disappointed here last season and I just don't know if I trust the DRF form. Wendigo is the solid one and looks sure to run his race but I just felt he might find one or two that have a little more class. It should be a cracking race though.
The shortlist for the BetMGM Cup was even longer! I genuinely could make a case for a dozen in this but we certainly can't back that many. I'd often play two in a Cheltenham handicap if I think I have narrowed to four or five (or less), but I'm only going to throw one dart at this as I could have three and still not hit the frame. It really is that competitive!
I have been singing the praises of Michael Kenneally all season and he was actually the first ever jockey to appear in my weekly "Eyecatchers" column. Plenty of people are onto him now, but I was hoping he would be booked for this ride with a while. I think The Yellow Clay is a Grade 1 horse at this trip and with the claim, he effectively runs off a mark of 150 here.
He gave The New Lion plenty of it last year in the Turners and over the same course and distance he must surely run well back in a handicap off this mark. His season has been a bit of a write-off up to now but they have freshened him up and he is one that will love the return to nicer ground. The addition of cheekpieces are a positive too I feel and should help him travel sweeter.
The stable have a good record in the race and I think this might have been the plan with a while, especially since he didn't appear to stay three miles at Christmas. Kopeck De Mee and Jingko Blue head the remainder of the shortlist but I'll leave it at the one, for now anyway.
Favori De Champdou is the most likely winner of the Cross-Country, but at 5/2 I think I can let him go and win. Majborough is much shorter for the Champion Chase and similar comments apply. Yes, if he turns up in the same form as he was in at the DRF then he will win handsomely again, but that is no guarantee.
I thought he was rock solid coming here last year, but he put in a deplorable round of jumping and was beaten at prohibitive odds in the Arkle. Two-mile chases at the top level are unforgiving and this race has seen plenty of hot-pots beaten in recent years. Furthermore, he is off the back of a huge run six weeks ago and I wonder if that took more out of him than it seemed. I won't have a bet in the race, but I hope he puts on another masterclass.
Any horse I had an eye on for the Grand Annual either wasn't entered or didn't make the cut. I had a look at the final field but nothing really caught my eye. I do think an early position will be important as is often the case over this trip around here so I might just see how the race develops early. The leader once things settle could be an angle.
I may not have a bet in the bumper, but the only one to really impress me this season was Quiryn, as I loved what he did at Naas. Few horses hit the line as hard as he did on soft ground there. He is only a four-year-old though and Cue Card was the last one to win this race. Paul Townend on board is a positive but there is little to go on here and with Willie behind schedule this season in Ireland, there is even less than a normal year.
1.20 - 0.5pt each-way Sortudo (12/1)
2.00 - 1pt win Koktail Divin (7/1)
2.40 - 1pt each-way The Yellow Clay (8/1)
Already Advised
0.5pt win The Big Westerner (16/1) - Brown Advisory
Comments
Post a Comment