Racing Nerd

The 2021 Cheltenham Festival lived up to the weighty expectations that were placed on it in the build-up to the biggest week of the racing year. We had the brilliant winners that marked themselves down as potential superstars, while Tiger Roll literally rolled back the years with an emotional win that epitomized the National Hunt game. He has been a horse of a lifetime for not just connections but the general public. The fact that these horses can be enjoyed for several years allows the public to connect with them in a different way and become as familiar with them as those closest to them. While the Irish dominance has been the topic of huge debate, I believe that those involved in that dominance should be celebrated for their achievements in the game. We have become accustomed to Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott dominating at Cheltenham but Henry De Bromhead has built an incredible stable over the past few years and he was in scintillating form. His partnership with Rachael Blackmor

  1.20 Triumph Hurdle At the start of the week, I felt that Zanahiyr was one of the bets of the week as the 2/1 or 9/4 was much too big. His price has contracted since Saint Sam franked the form on Tuesday but I still think he is value as I would have him an odds on shot. Furthermore, the stable form has not suffered one bit due to the recent controversy. In terms of form and what they have achieved, I think Zanahiyr is well clear of Tritonic. He jumps better and I think he is the quicker horse despite what Tritonic may have achieved on the flat. The time of the Kempton win last time suggests that Tritonic was perhaps not as impressive as he looked. Admittedly, his last furlong was his best but overall the time was average enough and while the stiff uphill finish will suit, I can’t have him at a shorter price than Quilixios on what they have both achieved over jumps. Zanahiyr blew me away at Fairyhouse (as mentioned here a few times) when he beat Saint Sam by 14 lengths and nothing

  1.20 Marsh Novices Chase The Marsh Novices Chase sees the third short-priced novice chaser of the week and this time it is the turn of Envoi Allen. He brings an unbeaten record into the race and to date has swept all before him in bumpers and over hurdles. This will be his biggest test to date over fences as through no fault of his own, he has only had a couple of small field moderate races in this campaign. We know the engine is there as he was a breathtaking winner of the Ballymore last season in a very quick time. His jumping has been more than adequate if not spectacular and he is the one they all have to beat as the price would suggest. There are some decent opposition for him to deal with though not least Shan Blue for the Skelton’s who is a brilliant jumper and was impressive in the Feltham at Christmas. On that occasion, he was much too good for The Big Breakaway and the result was never in doubt. I think this race will really suit him and if he is over the exertions of his

1.20 Ballymore Novices Hurdle A small but select field go to post for the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over the intermediate trip of 2 miles 5 furlongs. The market has been dominated by the “Big Three” for several weeks now and that partly explains the small number of declarations. I have had Bob Olinger in mind for this race ever since his debut over hurdles at Gowran in November (fortunate enough to hold a small slip at a big price - don't accuse me of after-timing as it was mentioned here). On that occasion, he failed by just a length against the highly regarded Ferny Hollow over an inadequate 2 miles. Ferny Hollow was subsequently ruled out for the season but at the time appeared to be the number one hope for the Willie Mullins stable in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (beat Appreciate It in last year's Champion Bumper). Since then, he has enhanced his reputation by winning a maiden hurdle in effortless fashion and then taking Grade 1 honours at Naas in mid-January. That race has a h

  I have not been as excited writing something since I wrote my last letter to Santa over 20 years ago. Perhaps as a result of the strange times we are in (or the recency bias), but I don’t remember looking forward to Cheltenham as much as this before. We haven’t really had much to look forward to in recent months and Cheltenham this week will hopefully give us some semblance of normality. However, Cheltenham will be very different too. The crowds, or lack of them to be more precise, will be surreal. The lack of activity should make it easier for the horses and jockeys in theory, but one can only imagine how the lack of atmosphere will affect the Festival as a whole. Cheltenham has become such a focus point that virtually every horse that has won impressively in the past 6 months has been mentioned in the context of the Festival. Any equine star worth mentioning must have been itching their nose over the past few weeks as the virtual previews took over. The talking is almost over and

I had taken a short break and intended on waiting for next week but the late change in weather conditions has tempted me to have a small interest in the Imperial Cup at Sandown today at 2.25. In an otherwise unappealing card from my point of view, the heavy conditions should really suit Mack The Man, while the same might not be said for some of his rivals here. He has encountered heavy going twice to date and I don't believe it to be any coincidence that they are his best lines of form, with victory achieved on both occasions. To add even more confidence, the first of those was over this course and distance and it could hardly have worked out better. That win in December 2019 was off a 6lb lower mark but the fact that he beat Protektorat and Song For Someone tells us that he should be full value for a 6lb rise. Protektorat finished the campaign with a respectable run in the Coral Cup off a 16lb higher mark while Song For Someone is now rated 11lb higher. The selection also won on h