Racing Nerd

The Irish Derby at the Curragh is the main highlight in terms of prestige today but the race looks wide-open and there are too many unknown factors for it to be an attractive betting proposition. It will tell us a lot more about the Epsom Derby next weekend but the advice would be to take a watching brief. Santiago has the best form but I'm not sure the drop in trip will suit. If the rain does arrive it might help him as the feeling is that he would need a true test at this trip to be seen to best effect.  The Northumberland plate at Newcastle looks even more difficult with cases to be made for a number of runners. Alan King is 3 winners from 4 runners in races at 2m or more in the past fortnight and if pushed, his Rainbow Dreamer would be the tentative selection as it will be hard to see him out of the places (Paddy Power are offering 6 places). However, the selection for today comes from the 3.00 at Newcastle in the shape of Virgin Snow. When I looked at the card yesterday evenin

There has been a slight drop in quality this week after last week's magnificent action but the cards for the weekend look promising. There is an excellent renewal of the Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary tomorrow where Petit Mouchoir could well get back to winning ways. For the selection though, I have chosen a hot handicap in Newmarket at 2.45. There are probably a few horses in here who could be well handicapped but Wedding Date is definitely one of them based on her run last time at Windsor. She pulled well clear along with the eventual winner having looked a likely winner at one point. She is able to run off a 3lb lower mark here and has the benefit of excellent 5lb claimer Thore Hammer Hansen. She was already won at Newmarket and the ground will be fine. Everything looks in place for her to go close and she is a very fair price. I was expecting her to be at least a coupe of points shorter. 1 pt win Wedding Date  (7/1 Bet365, 13/2 SkyBet, 6/1 BetVictor) Newmarket  2.45 

What a great week it has been!! There have been many highlights throughout the week - Battaash winning a deserved first Group 1 at Ascot, Stradivarius giving us one of the best staying performances of any era, Jim Crowley on practically everything he has touched and Hollie Doyle's amazing ride on Scarlet Dragon. Plenty of horses have confirmed their status at the top of their division and many more have shown us a glimpse of their potential to become stars of the future. Today gives one of last season's stars, Pinatubo, the chance to prove he can be superstar at 3. It is a shot at redemption after an underwhelming performance in the Guineas. For what it's worth, I think he will win, but the price has gone and I'm happy to watch the race. For the first bet of the day, I'm quite confident about the chance of Aplomb in the opening 6f handicap at 12.40. He produced two excellent efforts at the track last season, finding only one too good on each occasion. His neck defe

Stradivarius stamped his authority and class all over Royal Ascot yesterday in what was one of the greatest staying performances in living memory. The cheeky look over the shoulder by Frankie rounding the turn for home and the "Three Gold Cups" will live remain a part of Royal Ascot footage for many years to come. After such a performance, it is disappointing that so few were in attendance to appreciate the achievement and give the combination the reception they deserved but such are the times.  The ground appears to be drying out with minimal rain overnight and that should suit Golden Horde in the 3.35,   who could be a sprinter out of the top drawer. His trainer, who knows a thing or two about top sprinters, holds him in high regard and he has achieved more than anyone else in the field to date. He first came to our attention as a potential Group 1 performer when a very encouraging 5th in the Coventry at the Royal meeting 12 months ago. His form appeared to take off from th

The general feeling across social media and other various outlets is that yesterday was quite a difficult day for the punters at Royal Ascot, the bookmakers going a long way in making up for the suspension of racing!! I dare not tempt faith but today's card looks slightly more friendly despite the guessing game as to how the ground will be at race time.  In the opening 1m 2f handicap, the chance of Acquitted is quite obvious and certainly hasn't been missed in the market. He was beaten by the St James' Palace-bound Palace Pier who has the potential to be a Group 1 horse. Interestingly, Hugo Palmer felt on that occasion that the horse needed the run and blew up. I felt watching the race that he got done for speed, but either way he traveled extremely well (traded long-odds on in-running) and the step up in trip should suit. I feel the case is actually strengthened by the Novice race he won at Newbury last October which proves his ability to handle testing conditions if that

What an amazing day of racing we witnessed yesterday, sheer quality from start to finish. Personally, for me the highlight was Baatash winning the Kings Stand and putting the "myth" about Ascot to bed. There was no shame in being beaten by Blue Point a couple of times but he thoroughly deserved a win at the Royal meeting. For a horse that has achieved so much, I wonder if perhaps he doesn't get the credit he deserves? A debate for another day perhaps as today's card has taken quite a lot of time to go through! Again, my initial thought for day two is proceed with caution. There are a host of difficult handicaps with any amount of potentially well-handicapped horses and the Group races on the card offer little respite in terms of difficulty level. Addeybb would be a strong fancy if the rain arrives in time but to back him now would be guessing. The trendy horse for the day is clearly Ranch Hand for the concluding handicap at 4.40. I don't pay too much attention to

I'm sure everyone is excited this morning looking forward to a great week of racing. While the quality is undoubted, even on a normal year Ascot can be difficult for punters so the general advice would be to tread carefully. Hopefully we can find a winner or two through the week.  In the concluding handicap, Coeur De Lion has a solid each-way chance. He has been ultra consistent in the top staying handicaps over the past couple of years (including when fifth in this race last year) and the possibility of a first-time visor eeking out a little more improvement gives added hope. If the ground was to deteriorate further, it would only be a bonus as he is very effective on soft ground and it may inconvenience some of the others. He is only 3lb higher than when winning impressively at Chester last May and the stable are in excellent form. I thought last year's race was much deeper and I am confident he can hit the frame again at least. 1 pt eway Coeur De Lion  (14/1 general Paddy Po

What a performance from Ger Lyons, Colin Keane and of course, Siskin at the Curragh yesterday to take the first Irish classic of the season. Having followed the horse through his two year-old campaign, I deserted him to my own detriment. However, I must say I was delighted for the whole team as it was truly deserved. He did it the hard way too, having to fight for a run but his superior turn of foot at the vital stage of the race was decisive. Moving on to today's action, the best bet of the day comes at Newbury in the 3.35 in the shape of Stormy Antarctic. King of Comedy is certainly the subject of divided opinion and I feel he is quite short in the betting. He could well be too good for this field but Stormy Antarctic looks certain to run his race and is an each way price. Hopefully, there will be no more non-runners and we will have 8 go to post (maybe hold until close to the off). I thought the track rode slightly more testing than the official going yesterday and if a little m

While the feature tomorrow evening is the 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, it doesn't strike me as an attractive betting heat. Ballydoyle are throwing a number of darts at the unbeaten Siskin, who is the form pick. While I think the favourite is vulnerable, virtually any one of them could win and I have doubts about a few of them getting home over the stiff mile. I won't be getting involved in the race. The Newbury card, however, looks much more attractive from a betting point of view. The 5.25 promises to be a highly informative event, with a few horse that could potentially finish the season on much higher marks than they are currently. The one I like is Bear Force One who has been extremely popular since the market formed. To my eye at least, he didn't appear overly comfortable on the undulations of Newmarket last time. He will be much better on this flatter track and has already an impressive win over course and distance last September. He followed that effort with a clo

The early signs are that the 2000 Guineas was a very good renewal despite the interrupted preparations for the first Classic of the season. The time was the fastest in the races history and the horses that were expected to run well beforehand fought out the finish. I am sure it will produce plenty of winners throughout the season. Of course the first thought for most people will be the Derby and my initial thought is that ante-post favourite prior to the Guineas, Military March, will find it hard enough to reverse the form with Kameko, who was very strong at the finish. Hopefully Kameko will turn up and we will know for sure in a four weeks time. Moving on to Sunday's action and it looks quite a tricky card, with few standout bets, particularly from a price perspective. The Buckhounds Stakes at 1.50 might be the exception as the Mark Johnston trained Communique  looks a worthy favourite. While the price has contracted throughout the day, I still feel he is worth a bet at anything

All the attention will be on potential superstar Pinatubo in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket tomorrow. Is he the next Frankel? Then again, will there be another Frankel? For me, it is a race to watch in the hope that we see a real superstar. I wouldn't be a backer or a layer at current prices and the others seem to have too many holes in them to be viable each-way propositions. The race that does interest me from a betting viewpoint is away from Newmarket, the Sagaro Stakes which has been relocated to Newcastle this year. That is a huge reason for supporting Withhold as he produced a scintillating performance over course and distance to win the 2018 Northumberland Plate on what was his seasonal reappearance. He also won first time up last season in a handicap at Newbury off 107. It is noted that both seasonal reappearances have been arguably his best two runs to date. The trip seems to be another key factor as the last 5 times he has raced at 2m or more, he has only been beaten onc

I am making a speculative suggestion, with not much catching my eye tomorrow, on outsider Drummond Warrior in the 4.45 at Newmarket. He may be virtually the rank outsider of the field but there are a few reasons why you can make a case for him. Firstly, his trainer Pam Sly has a great record with horses returning from a break of more than 100 days (+48pts to level stakes in the last 5 seasons). Secondly, if you ignore his final two runs of last season, his form is excellent. He was a close second in a course and distance handicap that has worked out extremely well despite only having seven runners. The winner that day (rated 78) has since won twice, off 80 and 85 and placed off his current mark of 93. The third, a further nose back (off 87) has also won twice since and is now rated 101. Just for good measure, the 5 th and 6 th home also won subsequently. Drummond Warrior can race off a 1lb lower mark here as a result of his two subsequent runs which were simply too poor to be true.

I have been quite tentative to get involved on the resumption of racing as I really wanted to take a few days to assess the trends but I can’t resist a small interest on Nazeef in the 3.55 at Kempton on Wednesday. The early signs are that John Gosden has hit the ground running and while stable-mate Scentasia is a big danger, I think Nazeef could be much better than Listed class in time. The form of her maiden win could hardly have worked out better. The more experienced third horse (beaten 7 and ¼ lengths) won a handicap next time out off a mark of 82 and then followed that a few weeks later with a win off 90. Nazeef did her bit for the form when readily following up in novice company and then turned a handicap into a procession off 93. While that form may not be the strongest, the third did place a couple of times off similar marks and Nazeef was simply in a different league. The trainer has stated she was ready to start in this when it was originally scheduled for March so she sho