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Percentage Plays - October 28th

Horses for courses

·         Be Proud (Doncaster 4.25) – 67% strike-rate from his 3 starts at Doncaster.

·         Empire Steel (Kelso 1.29) – Has won 3 of his 4 starts at the track.

 

Going the distance

·         Red Rookie (Cheltenham 1.15) – Has won 5 of his 7 completed starts over 2m (beaten a neck in one of those defeats).

 

Course and Distance form

·         Mustazeed (Doncaster 3.50) – 1 win and 1 place from his 2 starts over this course and distance.

·         Lord Accord (Cheltenham 2.25) – Won on his only previous start over course and distance.

 

No grounds for concern

·         Aberama Gold (Doncaster 3.20) – Boasts a perfect 100% record (2 from 2) in handicaps on heavy ground. Doncaster is currently heavy and expected to remain that way.

 

Best fresh

·         Red Rookie (Chetenham 1.15) – Has an excellent record after a break of 50 days or more with form figures of 11512F51.

 

The right headgear

·         Quick Draw (Cheltenham 2.25) – 4 wins and 2 places from 7 runs in today’s headgear.

·        Haveyougotmymoney (Kelso 5.04) – Has finished first and second in his two starts since being fitted with cheekpieces.

 

Good combinations

·         Valence D’Aumont (Kelso 3.14) – 67% strike-rate when ridden by Sean Quinlan (2 from 3).

 

Trainers in form

·         Emma Lavelle has her string in rude health and has been operating at an excellent 31% strike-rate for the past fortnight, compared to 14% over the past year. She runs Red Rookie (1.15) and Call To Duty (4.45) at Cheltenham today.

·         Sam Thomas has started the season in red hot form. 4 of his 8 runners since the resumption have won, with 2 more hitting the frame. He runs Celtic Dino today (4.45).

 

Percentage Plays

It is an excellent handicap chase that opens the card at Cheltenham and one that should throw up plenty of winners through the season. I am a big fan of both Haddex Des Obeaux and Triple Trade, but I feel conditions are perfect for Red Rookie to run a big race.

There appears to be loads of pace on here so Red Rookie should get a lovely toe into it and provided his jumping holds up, I can see him travelling well coming down the hill (and hopefully flying up it). His form figures off a break read 11512F51 so I’m confident he should be ready to do himself justice with the yard in flying form. The second was a narrow defeat at Chepstow in a novice handicap two years ago that worked out particularly well.

His only previous run here was in the 2022 Arkle and he was in the process of running a very solid race when coming down at the final fence. Haddex Des Obeaux, Dancing On My Own and Guy all like to lead, while Notlongtillmay and Before Midnight have also made the running so this could be a frantic early pace. Hopefully they cut each other up and set it up for a closer, with Red Rookie one of the more likely types to benefit from that scenario.

 

1 pt win Red Rookie – Cheltenham 1.15 (15/2 general)


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