Racing Nerd

 The stars of the jumping discipline are slowly starting to reappear and this weekend represents a milestone in that regard, with many of the bigger names making their seasonal return. Minella Indo is perhaps the biggest of those, with the Gold Cup winner headlining an excellent card at Down Royal. He can be a bit in and out at times and with conditions far removed from his optimum, a watching brief is advised.  The card also features the return of Envoi Allen. I would love to see him return to his brilliant best and that would really whet the appetite for the season ahead. I will also be paying close attention to the Charlie Hall and in particular Shan Blue who might enhance his King George claims and make current odds of 33/1 look rather silly. I will wait and take my chance that a fresh Cyrname is too strong.  In terms of a betting proposition on Saturday, I thought the Ascot card was the most appealing. Vinndication is a warm favourite for the Handicap Chase at 3.20, but I was very

 Cheltenham is very much in the spotlight this weekend but it looks a tricky card on Saturday and I must admit I found it difficult to find a bet. A number of those that did catch my eye at Cheltenham were a little shorter than expected. I was tempted to leave it alone and use it as an informative card going forward rather than trying to force a bet. However, I was drawn to an old friend who did the column a few favours last season, particularly here at the December meeting when he returned to the minimum trip. Since then, he has been extremely progressive, culminating in a success at the Festival in the Grand Annual. Of course, the horse is Sky Pirate and returning to his ideal conditions can go close in the handicap chase at 3.30, despite having to shoulder top weight. As mentioned, he finished last season winning the Grand Annual (off 7lbs lower) and went up 25lb in all in the ratings from his December win. Given his run style though, we may not have seen the best of him yet and he

 We have an incredible day of racing ahead of us today at Ascot and I am struggling to remember a card of such quality in my time involved in the sport. The Long Distance Cup promises to be another brilliant renewal while the Champions Sprint is as open as the betting suggests. While it may lack a genuine superstar, there are plenty of very good horses in here, a brief reprieve for those that long for bigger fields in Group races.  The easist of the Group 1 races is the Fillies and Mares where Snowfall wins if she turns up at 80% or better. She is a class apart to this field on all her form this year, even the slightly lesser efforts. The QEII has pretty much all the top milers that you want with the exception of the recently retired Poetic Flare.  It features Palace Pier, who has been pretty much flawless since winning his first Group 1 here at the Royal meeting in the summer of 2020, and Baaeed, the possible heir to the throne. There are plenty of other possibles though, in particula

 While we may be more familiar with Irish and UK classics from a geographical point of view, the Arc is the best flat race in the world from a ratings perspective. The fact that we have what has been widely touted as the best Arc in a long time tells you all you need to know about the quality of today's field. From the moment she crossed the line in second in the Irish Champion Stakes I felt Tarnawa would win and nothing since has changed my mind, even though I am not as definitive as I was then. She has a good draw and should cope with conditions. The problem is that while she is in a stall that you want to be in, she will require luck in running and it is a large field of horses to get through, enhancing the possibility of traffic problems.  I think the winner will come from one of those at the top of the market and the two Godolphin representatives head those along with Snowfall. The draw and the conditions have brought Hurricane Lane right into it and he has replaced Tarnawa an

 There is an incredible weekend of racing approaching with the highlight undoubtedly the eagerly awaited Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. Tomorrow is an able appetiser though, with decent action at Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp. The Prix du Cadran is the highlight from a spectator's point of view but doesn't appeal as an attractive betting heat.  Value can come in all shapes and sizes, and indeed at various prices too and I believe there are a few near the head of the market at Ascot tomorrow that represent value despite being favourite or vying for that position. In the opening contest, Highfield Princess has the best form on offer and has been admirably consistent at a higher level since winning a Listed race at Chelmsford in July. The pick of those was a high class effort in the Group 2 City of York Stakes when she chased home Space Blues. On that occasion, she had Glorious Journey and Sir Busker among those in behind and there is nothing of that standard in opposi