The 2026 Cheltenham festival is finally upon us and after months of anticipation, the waiting is almost over. For casual fans reading this, this year's festival looks incredibly competitive and with the added complication of horses running on soft ground all winter and now facing decent ground, caution is advised. That is certainly the way I'll be approaching the opening day, although admittedly a good ante-post book will help too.
The opening contest is a prime example of the competitiveness on show in this year's festival. This promises to be one of the races of the week, with many bubbles burst. I've been firmly in the Old Park Star camp since his impressive win at Cheltenham in December (advised at 14/1 on Attheraces) and while there is plenty of potential in this field, I feel he sets a very high standard.
His time was good at Cheltenham even if he didn't beat much and he was better again at Haydock, when he quickened off a strong pace. That bodes well for this test. He travels, jumps and stays and I think it will take a very good one to beat him. Having played from 16/1 down, I don't feel the need to press up now, but certainly wouldn't put anyone off him at the current price.
Potential is the key word for the opposition. Mighty Park has everyone in Closutton waxing lyrical about him and who knows how good he might be. He is impossible to weigh up though without being in the camp, arriving here off just a facile maiden success. It is a big ask to win this off such a prep, but the stable clearly think he can and that must be respected.
Similar comments apply to El Cairos, whose final flight mishap at Leopardstown means he has only won a maiden too. Again, he was eye-catching but hard to weigh up and he didn't quite get up the hill last year in the bumper. He could be a difficult ride, but Jack Kennedy is capable of delivering him at the right time. Leader D'allier is another in a similar category and the vibes have been positive about him recently.
Talk The Talk is the one with the proven Grade 1 winning form in the book after the DRF (fell at Christmas when in front), and he was value for more than the margin on that occasion. He would be a major threat if his jumping holds up, although he would need to be ridden closer to the pace in a typical Supreme than he was last time. I have a feeling he will be though.
I don't think Mydaddypaddy will find enough off the bridle to win this (but could run well) and Sober Glory probably needs softer ground than the good to soft or quicker that is likely here. In summary, I'm with Old Park Star and it will take a good one to beat him.
The Arkle is another eagerly awaited contest, with two potential superstars in here and a strong supporting cast. I do think it is between Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes though and in these conditions and perhaps more importantly at this trip, I have to side with the latter.
He is a class animal and his speed could be too much for Nicky Henderson's five-year-old. Lulamba looked in trouble at a point last time against slower horses than Kopek and while he hasn't had an ideal prep with just the one run over fences, his class might just get him through. His work has been exceptional of late by all accounts and when they are confident about one, they rarely get it wrong.
I have a strong position having covered both earlier in the season and in doubles, etc. (thankful to JP for leaving Fact To File in the Ryanair). If Lulamba is close enough turning for home, this could be a belter, but my concern for him is early in the race. I think Kopek Des Bordes is the quicker horse and for that reason, I think he will win.
I don't really have a strong opinion on the Juvenile Handicap and I don't have a great record in the race either. I did think Winston Junior was a potential Triumph horse earlier in the season and I'd say he is definitely better than his mark of 131. There are several in here that look well treated though and seven or eight made the shortlist. His price and the drying ground (not sure to suit) are enough to put me off him. Glen To Glen for Joseph (great record in this) almost tempted me, as did the JP pair. No bet though.
I do like the Ultima historically though and I'm going to throw a couple of darts at it. I have already advised Leave Of Absence (each-way) ante-post on the Attheraces site and the drying ground will certainly suit him. I think he remains good value and if his jumping holds up, I can see him run very well.
He has looked really progressive this season and I thought he was an unlucky loser at Ascot in December before a fair run in a Grade 2 last time at Newbury when he had little chance at the weights. He hits plenty of the trends for the race, has course and distance form and is still improving. I think he will hit the frame, at least.
The others on the shortlist were Myretown, Hyland, Jagwar and Iroko. Myretown is still well treated, but his jumping cannot be trusted at this stage, in a race like this. Hyland looks decent value each-way, and I thought Jagwar would win this race since he was beaten here in December over shorter.
I may regret deserting him, but I had Iroko for this race all of last season and given that he didn't run last year, I must play him this time around. I think he is a brilliant horse, borderline Grade 1 animal and he can go close off 157.
It is, of course, JP's 75th birthday on Tuesday and I think the fact he seemingly wanted to run Iroko here is significant. He might not trust Jagwar and I'm not sure if I do either to an extent, as he can think about things late on. Iroko has stamina in spades and has previously won at the festival too. I know the national is his main target, but winning this would do him no harm at all, like Corach Rambler in 2023.
The Champion Hurdle may be lacking some of the sport's best (notably Constitution Hill, State Man and Sir Gino), but the winning connections won't mind and I think those close to Lossiemouth have seized a good opportunity here. I think she is a better horse at Cheltenham (4 from 4) than Leopardstown and the cheekpieces are a positive for me as they could help her travel in the early part of the race.
She is a classy mare and I expect her to reverse the Leopardstown form with Brighterdaysahead on better ground around a track where they have had contrasting fortunes. I have never really been sold by the New Lion. It took him a long time to pass The Yellow Clay in last year's Turners and it was a similar story here on Trials Day. He's the young progressive one but not for me.
Lossiemouth disappointed at the DRF, but she looked like she hated the ground and it was her third defeat at Leopardstown. I think this will suit her much better and she was devastating in the Mares Hurdle last year, but also in the International a few years ago when clocking a good time. That is perhaps more important given it was over the minimum distance, although on the stiffer new course. I've played at bigger prices NRNB, but this is very winnable and 15/8 is still fair.
The Plate has seen most horses I fancied not take up the entry, with only Madara and Mclaurey left. Both are well found in the market now and I can sit this one out. Zurich was deserted by Darragh O'Keeffe (and subsequently by me), while Jungle Boogie could run well at a huge price. He may be twelve but has proper Grade 1 form not that long ago, including a Gold Cup sixth when he tanked through the race but didn't quite get home. No real strong opinion though.
Similar comments apply to the National Hunt Chase, which I think is one of the more difficult handicaps of the week. Better bets certainly lie ahead, I feel.
2.00 - 1pt win Kopek Des Bordes (6/4)
3.20 - 1pt win Iroko (13/2)
4.00 - 1pt win Lossiemouth (15/8)
Already Advised
1pt win Old Park Star (14/1) - Supreme
0.5pt each-way Leave Of Absence (20/1) - Ultima
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