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Percentage Plays

 

Percentage Plays – Sample article (14th October)

 

Horses for courses (Course form)

·         Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – 67% at the course, with form figures of 112.

·         Knappers Hill (Chepstow 3.10) – Perfect 3 from 3 at Chepstow.

·         Sonigino (Chepstow 4.15) – 100% record at Chepstow, 2 wins from as many starts here.

 

Going the distance

·         La Yakel (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) at the distance.

·         Montassib (York 2.25) – 1 win from 2 starts at six furlongs, having raced mostly over further.

·         Stag Night (Naas 4.00) – 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance.

·         Unequal Love (Newmarket 5.00) – 100% record at 6f, 3 wins from 3 starts.

 

Ideal conditions (Course and Distance)

·         Titian (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) over course and distance.

·         Eva’s Oskar (Chepstow 2.30) – 3 wins from 4 starts over today’s course and distance.

 

Good combinations

·         Dan Skelton at Hexham – Skelton has had 10 winners and 10 further places from 28 runners at the track. Today he runs Mumford’s Magic (2.10).

·         Nicky Richards and Sean Quinlan are 38% when teaming up at Hexham. They pair up today with One Step Up (1.35) and Universal Folly (2.45).

 

Best fresh

·         Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – Form figures of 1112 on his opening run of the season.

 

The right headgear

·         Significantly (York 2.25) – 2 wins and 2 seconds from 5 starts in cheekpieces.

 

No grounds for concern

·         Fast Response (Newmarket 5.00) – 4 wins and 3 seconds from 9 starts on ground officially soft or heavy (currently soft).

 

Trainer in form

·         Nigel Twiston-Davies is operating at 38% (11-29) over the last fortnight. This compares favourably to his general strike rate of around 14%. Today he runs Uncle Bert at Chepstow (4.15).

 

Percentage Plays

I had Tea Clipper in mind all week, given both his excellent record fresh and his love of Chepstow (both highlighted above). I am concerned about the ground, however, and with a plethora of non-runners meaning the price is much shorter, I am willing to pass him over.

Instead, I am looking at York where I hope the ground won’t be anything like as testing. Albasheer has been on my radar for a while, but after his latest fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup, I believe now is the time to act. He tracked a similar path to Rohaan on that occasion, before powering past him late on and he franked the form with a win at Ascot since. I have no doubt but that the pair were inconvenienced by how the race panned out and I hope Albasheer can prove best of those that ran in that contest (of which there are many), including the winner, Significantly.

He previously shared the spoils over course and distance with Summerghand, when he was rather unlucky not to take the race outright, after a troubled passage. He will need some luck in running but he has consistently shaped ahead of his mark.

1 pt win Albasheer – York 2.25 (7/1 general)

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