Skip to main content

Percentage Plays

 

Percentage Plays – Sample article (14th October)

 

Horses for courses (Course form)

·         Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – 67% at the course, with form figures of 112.

·         Knappers Hill (Chepstow 3.10) – Perfect 3 from 3 at Chepstow.

·         Sonigino (Chepstow 4.15) – 100% record at Chepstow, 2 wins from as many starts here.

 

Going the distance

·         La Yakel (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) at the distance.

·         Montassib (York 2.25) – 1 win from 2 starts at six furlongs, having raced mostly over further.

·         Stag Night (Naas 4.00) – 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance.

·         Unequal Love (Newmarket 5.00) – 100% record at 6f, 3 wins from 3 starts.

 

Ideal conditions (Course and Distance)

·         Titian (York 3.35) – 100% record (1 from 1) over course and distance.

·         Eva’s Oskar (Chepstow 2.30) – 3 wins from 4 starts over today’s course and distance.

 

Good combinations

·         Dan Skelton at Hexham – Skelton has had 10 winners and 10 further places from 28 runners at the track. Today he runs Mumford’s Magic (2.10).

·         Nicky Richards and Sean Quinlan are 38% when teaming up at Hexham. They pair up today with One Step Up (1.35) and Universal Folly (2.45).

 

Best fresh

·         Tea Clipper (Chepstow 2.30) – Form figures of 1112 on his opening run of the season.

 

The right headgear

·         Significantly (York 2.25) – 2 wins and 2 seconds from 5 starts in cheekpieces.

 

No grounds for concern

·         Fast Response (Newmarket 5.00) – 4 wins and 3 seconds from 9 starts on ground officially soft or heavy (currently soft).

 

Trainer in form

·         Nigel Twiston-Davies is operating at 38% (11-29) over the last fortnight. This compares favourably to his general strike rate of around 14%. Today he runs Uncle Bert at Chepstow (4.15).

 

Percentage Plays

I had Tea Clipper in mind all week, given both his excellent record fresh and his love of Chepstow (both highlighted above). I am concerned about the ground, however, and with a plethora of non-runners meaning the price is much shorter, I am willing to pass him over.

Instead, I am looking at York where I hope the ground won’t be anything like as testing. Albasheer has been on my radar for a while, but after his latest fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup, I believe now is the time to act. He tracked a similar path to Rohaan on that occasion, before powering past him late on and he franked the form with a win at Ascot since. I have no doubt but that the pair were inconvenienced by how the race panned out and I hope Albasheer can prove best of those that ran in that contest (of which there are many), including the winner, Significantly.

He previously shared the spoils over course and distance with Summerghand, when he was rather unlucky not to take the race outright, after a troubled passage. He will need some luck in running but he has consistently shaped ahead of his mark.

1 pt win Albasheer – York 2.25 (7/1 general)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Percentage Plays - October 28th

Horses for courses ·          Be Proud (Doncaster 4.25) – 67% strike-rate from his 3 starts at Doncaster. ·          Empire Steel (Kelso 1.29) – Has won 3 of his 4 starts at the track.   Going the distance ·          Red Rookie (Cheltenham 1.15) – Has won 5 of his 7 completed starts over 2m (beaten a neck in one of those defeats).   Course and Distance form ·          Mustazeed (Doncaster 3.50) – 1 win and 1 place from his 2 starts over this course and distance. ·          Lord Accord (Cheltenham 2.25) – Won on his only previous start over course and distance.   No grounds for concern ·          Aberama Gold (Doncaster 3.20) – Boasts a perfect 100% record (2 from 2) in handicaps on heavy ground. Doncaster is currently heavy and expected to remain that way.   Best fresh ·          Red Rookie (Chetenham 1.15) – Has an excellent record after a break of 50 days or more with form figures of 11512F51.   The right headgear ·          Quick Draw (Cheltenham
Post a Comment
Read more

York Ebor Meeting Day 2

 We were treated to a performance of the highest quality from Mishriff yesterday on the opening day of the Ebor Festival. He stamped his authority all over a strong field, who admittedly had their various limitations exposed. Still, it has hard to take away from the winner given the manner of the victory and he has been an exceptional horse for connections, particularly David Egan.  Hopefully we will see more of the same in the Yorkshire Oaks today. Snowfall has already produced a "wow" performance at Epsom this year. That performance has since been the subject of much debate and the question remains is she as good as she looked on that occasion. While she was impressive both prior and subsequent to that Oaks win, it certainly appears a standout piece of form and there may have been mitigating circumstances that led to the margin of victory. That performance aside, there isn't too much between herself and Wonderful Tonight. She faces a major question mark of her own of co
3 comments
Read more