Racing Nerd

I've thoroughly enjoyed the racing at York this week. For me, the highlight was watching Love stamp her authority on the Yorkshire Oaks and I'm looking forward to seeing her in the Arc. I hope the ground won't be too soft there and we get to see a real cracker between herself and Enable, among others. Pyledriver was hugely impressive too in the Great Voltigeur and if he is targeted at the Leger, I think he will be hard to beat. Moving on to tomorrow's action, I think there are a few standout bets through the card. In the Ebor Handicap at 3.40, I think Verdana Blue has an outstanding chance. She was a gallant second in the Ascot stakes, a race in which the form is working out quite well for those that were involved in the finish. The third in the Ascot event, Summer Moon, won earlier this week while the fourth, Smart Champion, was a very unlucky third when selected by this column at Glorious Goodwood. Incidentally, Rochester House (fifth at Ascot) was second in that sam

Owen Burrows is very much a trainer in form (5 winners from 10 runners in the past 14 days) and he has a couple of outstanding chances at Newbury tomorrow. In the 7f handicap at 2.25, his Danyah has a favourite's chance   but in the following race at 3.00  Baasem looks a cracking bet at a much bigger price. He has had two moderate placed efforts this season, but the key to him might be the return to softer ground. On his only try in soft ground last season, he was incredibly impressive over 12f, running away with a handicap off a mark of 80 (14 lengths) which resulted in a large hike in the ratings. He is off 88 here but has been dropped a couple of pounds and wasn't beaten that far on both starts this season. In particular, his third at Ascot on reappearance worked out quite well, with the 6th and 8th home both winning next time.  1pt win Baasem  (9/1 General)  Newbury  3.00

There is certainly an element of guesswork as to how the inclement weather will affect the going at various meetings today. At the time of writing, Newbury had reported 3mm of rain and the ground described as good to soft, soft in places. I find with Newbury that it can change quite quickly when the rain falls and my opinion is that if they get any further rain, it could ride quite testing. As a result, I'm going with a proven soft ground performer, Morando in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at 3.00. He is hardly improving at the age of 7, but he probably will not need to improve to win this and a number of his previous efforts will probably be good enough. He has been soundly beaten at the top level on a number of occasions but the opposite must be said at Group 3 level. In his four attempts at this grade over similar trips, his form figures read 1121 and the only defeat came in this race last year when attempting to give Technician 12lb and only failing by 3/4 of a length. I doubt if

There have been many many hard luck stories at Goodwood this week. I have taken a view over the past few years that it is not my best venue so I have had a relatively quiet week with my only selection for the week so far, Smart Champion, an unlucky third on Wednesday (confirming my opinion to be still true). I was frustrated that I didn't put forward Aramon for the Galway Hurdle as I feel the County hurdle (when I was with him) form from Cheltenham could be quite strong but the fact that Paul Townend chose the stable companion and the soft ground was enough to put me off.  Moving onto today and I am going to try one at Goodwood and Kings Advice  is a tentative selection in the 2.25. The reason he is a tentative selection is not the track, more his current form which is a concern. However, I think there are excuses for most of his poor runs this year. He did finish sixth in the Sagaro and followed that with a good second in a Listed race at Doncaster. His last two runs require a lit