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Saturday 6th November

 It is a huge weekend of racing with the Breeder's Cup undoubtedly the highlight in Del Mar where the best of Europe travel to take on the American's on home soil. While I enjoy the spectacle, I don't have a deep knowledge of the American racing. For that reason, the Breeder's Cup is more of a fun event than any kind of financial event for me personally, although I did think Mother Earth and Love were both interesting for Aidan O'Brien who certainly knows how to win at the meeting.

Love in particular has suffered as a result of the lack of opposition she faced last season. While she was probably over-rated last season, she has almost gone full circle now and could potentially be under-rated. Things haven't really worked out for her either, but I thought her effort last time was a fair one, considering it was clearly a prep for the Arc (which she later missed). 

She won at Royal Ascot on her seasonal reappearance and given the Ballydoyle string come forward substantially for that initial outing, I thought that was a sign of things to come. Her next two starts were disappointing but the York race in particular didn't play to her strengths and this may suit better. 

In terms of a recommended bet on the day, I am hoping Hogan's Height can repeat his win from two years ago in the Grand Sefton at Aintree after showing a glimmer of light on his latest start. He hasn't really progressed since that emphatic win here in five subsequent starts, which means he return off just a 4lb higher mark. 

He has plenty on his favour given the yard could hardly be in better form, operating at an incredible 36% strike-rate in the past fourteen days. He has been given a similar prep to that victory - a spin over hurdles and comes here on his second start. That recent run was a strange one as he looked like getting detached at one point and then ran on again but in the end it was quite a similar level to his prep run two years ago.

He clearly like these fences as he completed in the National too last April, though the trip and possibly the class of opposition resulted in him being well beaten. This looks like it may have been the plan for quite some time and with the track and trip ideal, he looks sure to go close if on a going day. 


1pt win Hogan's Height (15/2 General) Aintree 2.15


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 110.5 points

Total Returned: 152.65 points

Total Profit: 42.15 points


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