It looks like it will certainly be an interesting day of racing tomorrow with a host of top quality stars in action. The horse I am most looking forward to seeing, like many of you I'm sure, is Bob Olinger in the Beginners Chase at Gowran. It is quite a decent contest and the fact that he is 1/3 against such opposition tells you all you need to know. He is one of the most exciting horses in training either side of the Irish Sea and while I won't be attempting to buy money at that price, I can't wait to see him jump a fence.
The other horse I am excited about is Defi Du Seuil, who is on a redemption mission at Ascot later in the afternoon. He is a horse I love and the noises out of the yard have been quite encouraging. Hopefully, he is back to something like his best and I think this is just about his right trip. It is not impossible, given he did redeem himself two years ago when he had a brilliant season prior to Cheltenham after disappointing the year before. Fingers crossed.
In the same race, many will also hope his old foe Lost In Translation returns to form and that is also possible given the yard's horses appear to be in much better spirits this season. Can they work the oracle once more?
The feature race of the day is the Betfair Chase at Haydock and I must admit I have spent a lot of time looking at this. That is partly because I found it hard to find an angle in many of the other races but also because it's a Grade 1 and I generally like Grade 1 races over jumps as betting propositions. This is not the easiest to figure out though but I will attempt to break it down.
I started with the favourite and while he has many pros, I just couldn't get over the one major con and that was his form level, as opposed to just his record, first time up. De Bromhead is on record saying he takes a lot of work and many of the yard's better horses have needed their reappearance this year too.
This is far from his main target and is more of a stepping stone to what lies ahead at Christmas and of course in March. He has been beaten by pretty average horses (with all due respect) in each of his reappearance runs. While he is undoubtedly the class horse in the race, is still improving and features high up on my Gold Cup shortlist at this stage, I can't have him at his current price in this particular contest (although my saver might be to back him for the Gold Cup just incase he does win).
We know what we will get with Bristol De Mai. Of course, he would love the ground to be heavy as it inconveniences others more but he certainly handles better ground. If he didn't handle it, he would not have won this race on good ground in 2018 and finished a good second on good to soft a year later.
That was his only defeat here and while it was at the hands of Lost In Translation, it is worth remembering that he was favourite for the Gold Cup after that run. Frodon, multiple Grade 1 winner, was miles back in third. The list of horses he has beaten in this race are an impressive group too, with the 2018 roll call Native River, Thistlecrack, Clan Des Obeaux and Might Bite.
As well as those two efforts here, he has a second at the Cheltenham Festival over an inadequate trip as a Novice on good ground and a Grade 1 win as a Novice on good to soft. He also has a third in a Gold Cup on good to soft, even though Cheltenham was never really his track.
He has the added positives that he will have been laid out for this and the stable are in great form. His form figures on his seasonal reappearance are 221121 and he is 5 from 6 at Haydock. Bristol De Mai is the solid horse and in a race where the top two are clear form picks, I think he has arguably more in his favour than A Plus Tard and is a much bigger price.
Of the remainder, while he does have plenty to find, Next Destination is probably the most interesting. I thought he was possibly the best horse in the National Hunt Chase last year and was slightly critical of Harry Cobden at the time. Galvin has since fallen short (with the benefit of a run) at the top level but Paul Nicholls believes Next Destination is ready and he could go very close.
Can he improve the required amount to get to those above him? That is questionable and to my mind he needs both the aforementioned to underperform and a possibly a couple of others too. That is never a good angle when backing a horse at a single-figure price. I can see him winning but I don't think the percentage chance is fairly reflected in his price.
Royale Pagaille would have been of interest in soft ground but needs to prove himself on better ground and also needs to show he is capable of performing at this level. He was let down by his jumping in the Gold Cup and that effort can be excused. He is better than that for sure, but the ground is a concern for him certainly.
Waiting Patiently is just a horse that I've never really taken to and while he clearly has ability, I don't think we see it anywhere near enough. Perhaps he will get his day in the sun eventually but he won't have my financial investment burdening his shoulders.
I was once head of the Imperial Aura fan club but I think he found his level last year and maybe he is just short of Group 1 level. He may improve for 3 miles now but will need to. If both the market leaders underperform this could be anyone's race but the hope is that Bristol De Mai will bring his Haydock form to the table, even on this ground.
1pt win Bristol De Mai (7/2 General) Haydock 3.00
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 112.5 points
Total Returned: 152.65 points
Total Profit: 40.15 points
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