Racing Nerd

The Savills Chase at Leopardstown tomorrow is just about as good a staying chase as I can remember. The field has such depth and even those well down the betting list are top quality performers. There is little doubt that the race will impact both the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase markets and we should have a better picture of both races by tomorrow evening. I think Minella Indo is the right favourite and if he wins tomorrow, he will be a strong favourite for the Cheltenham showpiece. However, at the price tomorrow I am inclined to watch and enjoy the race. The depth of the race means I'm not too inclined to have a stab at something at a bigger price, even though I would like to see a lot more from Allaho after advising him for the Ryanair previously. Samcro is very interesting trying this trip for the first time and the ground should be perfect for him - he will have no excuses. Minella Indo is the one that I have liked for the Gold Cup from the start and he is the one I think will w

When I was a college student, many light moons ago, Christmas was celebrated in a three-day extravaganza that was aptly called "Christmas Daze". It was a few years before we realised that was how it was actually spelled and probably another year before we knew why. It reminds me a little of the Christmas racing period. It is often hard to see the wood from the trees with so much racing and it is all too easy to get caught up in the festive spirit and give freely to the bookmakers. While this year has undoubtedly been tough on them, the advice remains the same... thread carefully. There are four long days to consider and you don't have to have 5 or 6 bets in a day. If you can't enjoy the quality of racing on show in the next few days without having a bet, this probably isn't the right sport for you. Anyway, enough reminiscing and rambling, let's have a look at today's action. I will be treating today as a warm up as such and getting the eye back in after a

Tomorrow is the first time in quite a while that I have found myself with a large shortlist - this is always an added concern as not only do you have to get it right in reading the form book, but there is the risk of eliminating a winning selection. In the end, I have gone with two horses that look sure to go very close and coincidentally have similar positives and indeed negatives!!  The Handicap over 2 miles at 1.15 is a cracking contest and there are a couple in here who I have backed recently. Zanza was a winning selection for the column at Newbury recently and should go close again, while Ibleo has a progressive profile over fences. Certainly in terms of the latter, if the ground were to deteriorate he would be a major threat. However, both are up in the weights in a better race and I cannot look beyond Sky Pirate who is surely better than his current mark of 134. There is every chance that this horse will trade at odds-on at some point (so those looking to take a profit could co

What a race we have in store in the John Durkan at Punchestown tomorrow. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say it might well be the best race we see all year outside of Cheltenham, although that is a controversial topic at the moment. Min has been brilliant the last few years but he faces a lot of young talent on this occasion, some of which have race fitness on their side. Chris's Dream was a painful loser for the blog at Down Royal, having looked like the winner virtually all the way. He has the speed to cope with the drop in trip and they might be able to make more use of his excellent jumping. Gordon Elliott runs two live contenders in Battleoverdoyen and the unpredictable Samcro. Battleoverdoyen was very impressive at Down Royal and early in the season seems to be the time to catch him. I think Samcro might improve for Down Royal as he seemed unusually sluggish there, but perhaps his day might be on Spring ground. Melon seems to save his best efforts for Cheltenham an

A week is most certainly a long time in racing. Since I last wrote here last week, many horses have enhanced their Festival claims and many have raised question marks about their targets or their potential for success at the Festival. Not only that, but the effect the Festival has on the National Hunt season as a whole has been brought into the spotlight by the eleventh hour defection of Altior from the Tingle Creek at Sandown. For what it's worth, I think the decision rests with those closest to the horse and those speaking through their pockets on social media must realise that there is a risk associated with ante-post betting. Clearly, Nicky Henderson regretted running Altior last season but public pressure in the build up to the match with Cyrname possibly influenced his decision then. It was to the detriment of his stable star and I am sure he is aware of the definition of insanity. If there is a criticism of Henderson, then surely it must be his PR when it comes to these big