We were treated to a performance of the highest quality from Mishriff yesterday on the opening day of the Ebor Festival. He stamped his authority all over a strong field, who admittedly had their various limitations exposed. Still, it has hard to take away from the winner given the manner of the victory and he has been an exceptional horse for connections, particularly David Egan.
Hopefully we will see more of the same in the Yorkshire Oaks today. Snowfall has already produced a "wow" performance at Epsom this year. That performance has since been the subject of much debate and the question remains is she as good as she looked on that occasion. While she was impressive both prior and subsequent to that Oaks win, it certainly appears a standout piece of form and there may have been mitigating circumstances that led to the margin of victory.
That performance aside, there isn't too much between herself and Wonderful Tonight. She faces a major question mark of her own of course - will she handle the quicker ground? My gut feeling, although impossible to say for sure is that her progression coincided with soft ground but not as a direct consequence of it.
Furthermore, she looks a quicker horse this year than she did last Autumn when she looked a real slogger that would require a huge test at this trip. She has put both her races to bed early and in particular last time at Goodwood, over a longer trip, possibly even looked like her stamina was at the end of it's limit.
Either way, the odds discrepancy means she must be the call in a race that the others require a huge step forward or the market principles to underperform. The form of the O'Brien stable raises another doubt about Snowfall and at the prohibitive odds, I am willing to take her on.
The late defection of Illustrating from the Lowther, has taken some of my personal interest in the race as I liked what I saw from her at Goodwood. In any case, Sandrine will be hard to beat and there is little to choose between many of the others to suggest one. The remainder of the card is probably the least appealing of the four days and I haven't come down strongly on the side of anything.
1pt win Wonderful Tonight (9/2 General) York 3.35 *use BOG firms
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 104.5 points
Total Returned: 146.25 points
Total Profit: 41.75 points
I am hoping to attend the Ebor festival next year, as it has been 41 years since I attended British horse racing live. Starting today, I will use your predictions to fund my trip!
ReplyDeleteThe pressure is on the lad now 😃
DeleteApologies. I only saw this comment now. Please don't take it personally that I stopped posting blogs :-) I started a new role and just haven't had the time since but will be returning to it shortly.
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