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July Cup

 It really is a Super Saturday on the racing front with quality action at York and Ascot, as well as of course the final day of the July festival from Newmarket. The feature at Newmarket is the eagerly awaited July Cup. This race promises to be one of the best sprint races we have seen in a very long time in the UK. There is quantity as well as quality with a large field of 19 set to take their chance in a clash of generations. The fact that nine of the runners are officially rated 114 or above means that there is a fair chance it will take a performance of the highest quality, particularly from any of the older horses having to concede 6lb to a host of progressive three year old's. Interestingly, the last ten renewals are split evenly between those, but I have a feeling that the younger horses will come out on top on this occasion. 

The starting point when looking at the three year old's is the Commonwealth Cup, despite it not being as informative as it may have been if geldings were allowed run in the race. That race was controversial in itself because the first past the post, Dragon Symbol, was demoted following the stewards enquiry. While Dragon Symbol, in my opinion, broke the rules and deserved to be punished, I believe he was the best horse in the race. The first two pulled well clear and it looked a smart performance, regardless of the result. As has been well documented, both Creative Force and Rohaan were not allowed to take their chance in the race, despite being of age. They won the Jersey Stakes and Wokingham respectively, both in decisive fashion and we will never know how they would have fared in the Commonwealth Cup. 

The older horses are well represented in this intriguing contest with current favourite, Starman, who missed the Diamond Jubilee on account of the ground leading their hopes. They have depth to their challenge with the second and third from that Group 1, Glen Shiel and Art Power re-opposing although both would arguably prefer a little more cut. Oxted was successful over the minimum at the Royal meeting and looks sure to enjoy the return to 6f based on his strong finishing burst. He is the reigning champion and everything is in place for a big run from him. 

However, I am going to go with the younger brigade and hope that Archie Watson and Oisin Murphy can gain compensation for their heartbreaking reversal at Royal Ascot. Dragon Symbol was the best horse in the Commonwealth Cup and I think both he and Campanelle are top class. It was interesting prior to that contest that Oisin Murphy repeatedly mentioned that he would be a better horse on good ground. The fact that he performed to such a level if only "handling" softer conditions the last twice, suggests he could be anything. Prior to Ascot, he was caught on the line by Rohaan at Haydock in testing conditions when attempting to give him a pound. That form looks exceptional now given the winner bolted up in the Wokingham off 112. Of course Rohaan is a danger but his style of running will require a lot of luck here and the selection is more straightforward. It is hard to see him being out of the first five and I am happy to play it as an each-way bet to nothing (almost, late price change).

The supporting card is full of potential stars of the future and I was originally quite keen on Native Trail when bigger prices were available. I was impressed with his win on debut, the team are red hot and they have an excellent record in this. Every horse has his price though and the value is gone now. If he was to drift back a little towards 3/1 or 11/4, he would be of interest but no bet... for now.


0.5pt eway Dragon Symbol (9/2 General) Newmarket 4.25 *5 places


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 100.5 points

Total Returned: 145.3 points

Total Profit: 44.8 points

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