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Saturday 17th July

 While the Irish Oaks at the Curragh is the highlight of tomorrow's racing in terms of prestige, even the most enthusiastic of fans would struggle to consider it a vintage renewal this year. The race does present us with another opportunity to see the wildly impressive Epsom Oaks winner, Snowfall. I doubt we will learn very much about her tomorrow apart from that she is in full health as the race lacks any realistic challengers on all known form. 

There is a competitive supporting card but for a bet I decided to look to Newbury instead and the proverbial "group horse in a handicap" potentially rearing it's head once more. I am a huge fan of Rodrigo Diaz and he has been incredibly progressive over the past twelve months or so. It has co-incided with his partnership with Jamie Spencer and the pair have combined for four wins and two placed efforts from six starts. Having comfortably progressed through the ranks last season with three wins from much lower marks, he has continued in that direction this season. He returned with an excellent second at Newmarket before winning with the minimum of fuss at Doncaster. That Doncaster effort looked really good at the time, and has been franked since. The runner-up Duke Of Condicote was second on his next start before winning off a 3lb higher mark. The superiority of Rodrigo Diaz on that occasion suggests he should be able to compete at the very least off a 7lb higher mark. I believe that is the bare minimum as there is a strong suggestion that this horse might be quite a way from his ceiling yet, with the curve of improvement still appearing quite sharp to these eyes. He was unable to show that potential last time at Kempton, and that effort is easily excused. I think the step up in trip shouldn't pose a problem (despite it being quite a rise) as his relaxed style should help in that regard. I can see him creeping into this under a typical Spencer ride. I believe this horse could be a 100 plus horse in time and if that is the case, he must surely go close here. I thought he would be clear favourite and was pleasantly surprised to see 4/1 availiable across the board. I make him a bet at anything close to 3/1.


1pt win Rodrigo Diaz (4/1 General) Newbury 2.25


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 101.5 points

Total Returned: 146.25 points

Total Profit: 44.75 points

 

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