Skip to main content

Cheltenham Antepost #1

 I have been looking at the Mares Hurdle for quite some time, trying to find an angle into it and I believe the one that is wildly overpriced is Heaven Help Us. I don't want to take the chance that she wins today and the price goes so I'm going to suggest backing her now. It would not be the end of the world if she doesn't win today as I think she is better at two and a half miles, while it is also harder to dominate from the front on the New Course.

I have been going through those at the head of the market for a while and there are plenty of question marks. At this juncture, I think it is fair to say that there is certainly no superstar in the field and Paul Hennessy's Coral Cup winner holds claims to match most at the very least. Her current price is an insult to her ability and her profile.

She is taking a similar rout to last year's winner Black Tears in that she also ran in the Coral Cup the previous year (and the year before that). Black Tears was second in the previous year's Coral Cup off a mark of 144 behind Mares Hurdle disappointment Dame De Compagnie (140). In comparison, Heaven Help Us was as impressive as any of the other winners all week, leading the field a merry dance to win by 9 lengths off a mark of 138.

Prior to Cheltenham, she won the hottest of handicaps at the Dublin Racing Festival, with Mares Novice Hurdle winner Telmesomethinggirl back in third, giving her 2lb admittedly (excluding jockey claim). 

Her Cheltenham form is better than her form anywhere else and if she does run well in the International today, she will be half the price she is now. She won her maiden hurdle here beating Master Debonair and Fred, solid if not spectacular form. It is easy to forget she ran in the Supreme won by Shishkin and performed with credit, despite eventually fading out of it. 

She was one of the many badly hampered in that contest, still seventh was very reasonable when you look at the horses down the field in that race. Edwardstone was sixth, while Fiddlerontheroof was well behind her. 

As mentioned, I wouldn't give up if she is beaten today, as I think the old course might suit her better and it is more difficult to make all on the New Course. They have also left off the cheekpieces again. 

If she does win, then she will be half the price she is now. One can ignore her reappearance effort as the cheekpieces that have brought about more improvement were left off and she made a bad mistake at a vital point. I wouldn't think Punchestown would be her ideal track either.

It is quite rare in current ante-post markets that one can find a progressive horse, with solid form claims for a race that is definitely their target available at double figure odds. She is huge value at 25/1. 


1pt win Heaven Help Us (Mares Hurdle, Cheltenham) - 25/1 General


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cheltenham 2026 Day 2

A good start is half the battle as they say, but it is still very early days in the 2026 Festival. I think Wednesday is probably the toughest day of this year's festival and I don't have the same ante-post positions either. It does get easier (in my opinion) later in the week so I will be threading carefully again on day two.  The importance of being prominent was one of the big clues from day one and I hope all three of my additional selections will be ridden positively.  Twenty-two runners (not a typo!!!!) go to post in the Turners Novices' Hurdle, the Grade 1 that opens the card. I haven't checked the stats, but I know it has been a long time since a Grade 1 novice had that field size. The changes to the festival handicaps have certainly helped add depth to these contests, with plenty of these likely to have been taking that route if the old rule of three qualifying runs applied. There are question marks over the Irish novices after the Supreme, but I feel like the b...
Post a Comment
Read more

Day 1: Cheltenham 2026

The 2026 Cheltenham festival is finally upon us and after months of anticipation, the waiting is almost over. For casual fans reading this, this year's festival looks incredibly competitive and with the added complication of horses running on soft ground all winter and now facing decent ground, caution is advised. That is certainly the way I'll be approaching the opening day, although admittedly a good ante-post book will help too. The opening contest is a prime example of the competitiveness on show in this year's festival. This promises to be one of the races of the week, with many bubbles burst. I've been firmly in the Old Park Star camp since his impressive win at Cheltenham in December (advised at 14/1 on Attheraces) and while there is plenty of potential in this field, I feel he sets a very high standard. His time was good at Cheltenham even if he didn't beat much and he was better again at Haydock, when he quickened off a strong pace. That bodes well for this...
Post a Comment
Read more

Royal Ascot Day 2

What an amazing day of racing we witnessed yesterday, sheer quality from start to finish. Personally, for me the highlight was Baatash winning the Kings Stand and putting the "myth" about Ascot to bed. There was no shame in being beaten by Blue Point a couple of times but he thoroughly deserved a win at the Royal meeting. For a horse that has achieved so much, I wonder if perhaps he doesn't get the credit he deserves? A debate for another day perhaps as today's card has taken quite a lot of time to go through! Again, my initial thought for day two is proceed with caution. There are a host of difficult handicaps with any amount of potentially well-handicapped horses and the Group races on the card offer little respite in terms of difficulty level. Addeybb would be a strong fancy if the rain arrives in time but to back him now would be guessing. The trendy horse for the day is clearly Ranch Hand for the concluding handicap at 4.40. I don't pay too much attention to ...
Post a Comment
Read more