Racing Nerd

 While the Irish Oaks at the Curragh is the highlight of tomorrow's racing in terms of prestige, even the most enthusiastic of fans would struggle to consider it a vintage renewal this year. The race does present us with another opportunity to see the wildly impressive Epsom Oaks winner, Snowfall. I doubt we will learn very much about her tomorrow apart from that she is in full health as the race lacks any realistic challengers on all known form.  There is a competitive supporting card but for a bet I decided to look to Newbury instead and the proverbial "group horse in a handicap" potentially rearing it's head once more. I am a huge fan of Rodrigo Diaz and he has been incredibly progressive over the past twelve months or so. It has co-incided with his partnership with Jamie Spencer and the pair have combined for four wins and two placed efforts from six starts. Having comfortably progressed through the ranks last season with three wins from much lower marks, he has...

 It really is a Super Saturday on the racing front with quality action at York and Ascot, as well as of course the final day of the July festival from Newmarket. The feature at Newmarket is the eagerly awaited July Cup. This race promises to be one of the best sprint races we have seen in a very long time in the UK. There is quantity as well as quality with a large field of 19 set to take their chance in a clash of generations. The fact that nine of the runners are officially rated 114 or above means that there is a fair chance it will take a performance of the highest quality, particularly from any of the older horses having to concede 6lb to a host of progressive three year old's. Interestingly, the last ten renewals are split evenly between those, but I have a feeling that the younger horses will come out on top on this occasion.  The starting point when looking at the three year old's is the Commonwealth Cup, despite it not being as informative as it may have been if geldi...

 The second day of the festival sees a very promising card, more appealing to this pair of eyes than the Thursday card certainly. From the opening maiden to the concluding 5f handicap, there was something that caught my attention. However, as regular readers will know by now, that is not my style. I just hope that if I have read any of the races right that they are the ones I have included!!  The opening contest, while not a betting race for me personally sees an interesting one from the Charlie Appleby stable. Noble Truth was third behind July Stakes winner Lusail over course and distance on debut and in my opinion that rates close enough to the form of Chesham fourth Sweeping to suggest they should be closer in the betting than they currently are.  The following handicap is the first port of call in terms of selections and I believe the Mark Johnston trained King Frankel is worth another chance after a string of good efforts. He was a good second in the London Gold Cup...

 It is the opening day of the July Festival at Headquarters tomorrow and it presents a very competitive card to commence festivities. I felt the other days present more betting opportunities if I'm honest and contemplated keeping my powder dry entirely. I had no strong opinion regarding taking on Al Aasy given the opposition he faces as they are far inferior on all known form. Stowell was a tentative selection but not a bet at the prices in the Bahrain Trophy and I had a rather large shortlist for the 6f handicap.  In the end, I decided I couldn't let Eldrickjones go unsupported at the current price based on the impression he left on me at Royal Ascot in the Coventry. Having travelled ominously well on that occasion, he was stopped in his tracks inside the 2f pole (having waited patiently behind a wall of horses up to that point) when making his initial challenge. Once he re-gathered his momentum, he came with an eye-catching late run, despite racing on the part of the track ...

 How things can change quickly and having raced on good to firm throughout Thursday, Friday's card survived an eleventh hour inspection. I am hoping my luck will change like the weather did and Saturday will see a change in fortunes. Of course, Friday was spent scrimmaging through the form book trying to find horses that would/ would not act on softer conditions, particularly ones that had not seen their price collapse through Friday morning. They were few and far between. Wonderful Tonight was one of those that did see her price collapse early Friday morning from 11/1 down to about 6/1 over the course of a couple of hours. The more images of heavy rain at Ascot appeared through the various media, the tighter her price got. The case for her is blatantly obvious as she simply loves testing conditions. She first came to prominence as a potential high class filly when winning a Group 3 on heavy ground at Deauville last August over the mile and a half trip. That came somewhat as a surp...

 It has been a rather difficult week so far, but with two days remaining we have more than enough time to make amends. A couple of selections have been slightly unlucky and we are not without hope that we can hit the mark. The good news is we haven't done much damage as of yet. At the start of the week, I would have said Friday was one of the more attractive cards. Hopefully that will still be the main thought on Friday evening. The day kicks off with the Albany Stakes over 6 furlongs for the two-year-old fillies and I really like Eve Lodge in this. She was eye-catching on debut behind Queen Mary sixth Get Ahead, making up lengths in the closing stages having been held up off a steady pace and encountering traffic problems. Whether she would have won that day or not is hard to say, and while I am inclined to think the traffic didn't cost her the race, she would have gone very close. The winner ran well in the Queen Mary earlier this week from her draw, without ever looking li...

 The highlight of Thursday is undoubtedly the brilliant Stradivarius and his attempt at history. He is a horse that has very much captured the adoration of the public and his partnership with Frankie Dettori is a PR blockbuster. I have no doubt that the majority of the people (myself included) watching the Gold Cup later today will be hoping they win. However, what we want and what happens as racing fans are often completely different things. Of course with Stradivarius, like any champion, there are many positives. He has dominated the staying division with the last three years. He is 6lb clear on official figures and arguably his most devastating performance came in this very race last year. He is fairly adaptable in relation to ground conditions too so any overnight rain won't cause him any problem. You could be forgiven for thinking that is the end of the segment. However, there are a couple of reasons to think he may be vulnerable, in particular to a younger, improving rival. T...