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Royal Ascot Day Four

 It has been a rather difficult week so far, but with two days remaining we have more than enough time to make amends. A couple of selections have been slightly unlucky and we are not without hope that we can hit the mark. The good news is we haven't done much damage as of yet. At the start of the week, I would have said Friday was one of the more attractive cards. Hopefully that will still be the main thought on Friday evening.

The day kicks off with the Albany Stakes over 6 furlongs for the two-year-old fillies and I really like Eve Lodge in this. She was eye-catching on debut behind Queen Mary sixth Get Ahead, making up lengths in the closing stages having been held up off a steady pace and encountering traffic problems. Whether she would have won that day or not is hard to say, and while I am inclined to think the traffic didn't cost her the race, she would have gone very close. The winner ran well in the Queen Mary earlier this week from her draw, without ever looking like winning. The way Eve Lodge hit the line suggests that 6 furlongs will suit her even better. As mentioned earlier this week, that race has worked out quite well and she was easily the biggest eyecatcher among them. Considering she encountered trouble in running just after the 2 furlong pole, her final 3f splits of 11.93, 12.19 and 11.72 are quite impressive, compared with 36.28 combined by Get Ahead.  Eve Lodge then hacked up in a low quality affair at Lingfield where we didn't learn much but her Ascot run offers enough encouragement. Her sire Ardad has had a terrific start to his stud career and produced the winner of the Norfolk today in the shape of Perfect Power. Any overnight rain would not do her any harm and if the ground was on the softer side of good, I might even double down on her myself.  I would be slightly concerned if Ascot survived all of the rain but that seems unlikely from the forecasts I have seen and good (or softer better again) should be fine. She was pulled out of the Queen Mary earlier in the week on account of the ground. She looks well drawn and the pace appears to be strong as she is likely to be held up. All in all, I would be very hopeful of a good run.

In the Commonwealth Cup, I am willing to forgive Supremacy his disappointing reappearance and give him one more chance to show his two-year-old form. That form was of the highest standard with a comfortable success at Goodwood usurped by a battling defeat of Lucky Vega in the Middle Park at Newmarket. The latter contest arguably one of the best juvenile races run last year. It looks a fascinating renewal with Campanelle and the unbeaten Suesa among the many dangers. However, I think Supremacy has the best form on offer, admittedly from last season and he is twice the price of the aforementioned pair. Of course, the reason for that is his poor reappearance but the trainer has stated that his blood was wrong after that run and he has been given plenty of time to recover. If that was just a blip and he is back to his best, it is hard to see him not go close here. He appears to have a good draw in stall 19 with the market leaders drawn more towards the middle and given his running style, I expect him to make his own running down the stands rail with Dragon Symbol alongside him in stall 18. The concern would be if Ascot got a lot of rain as he has yet to race on ground softer than good but it would take a lot of rain at this point to change the ground to soft by tomorrow afternoon. With the concern over the rain and his reappearance it might be a bit of a boom or bust selection so the advice is to play win only. If the rain did stay away, place option might be reconsidered.

The highlight of day four is the Coronation Stakes, and I think it is a similar contest to the St James's Palace in many ways. I believe Mother Earth comes here as the rock solid option, the best of the division at the moment and it is a matter if anything can improve to get to her level or does she take another step forward again. Just like Poetic Flare, she won the English Guineas and went close to winning a second (in her case in the French Guineas) and she has been freshened up since. So many from the stable progress throughout the season and she will be hard to beat, looking very likely to run her race. I think she will prove herself as the best mile filly and I fancy her to win this. I think her price is only fair though with so many potential improvers in the line-up. If one of the others went in, I would probably end up backing her but getting involved at this price when the week isn't going great is not advisable.


0.5pt eway Eve Lodge (10/1 General) Royal Ascot 2.30 *4 places


0.5pt win Supremacy (10/1 BetVictor, Unibet, 9/1 General) Royal Ascot 3.40


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 96.5 points

Total Returned: 139.3 points

Total Profit: 42.8 points

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