The highlight of Thursday is undoubtedly the brilliant Stradivarius and his attempt at history. He is a horse that has very much captured the adoration of the public and his partnership with Frankie Dettori is a PR blockbuster. I have no doubt that the majority of the people (myself included) watching the Gold Cup later today will be hoping they win. However, what we want and what happens as racing fans are often completely different things.
Of course with Stradivarius, like any champion, there are many positives. He has dominated the staying division with the last three years. He is 6lb clear on official figures and arguably his most devastating performance came in this very race last year. He is fairly adaptable in relation to ground conditions too so any overnight rain won't cause him any problem. You could be forgiven for thinking that is the end of the segment. However, there are a couple of reasons to think he may be vulnerable, in particular to a younger, improving rival. The age is a key point I believe, together with his form tailing off last season, to suggest there is enough to take him on at around even money. I know supporters will claim that the Arc was the wrong trip/ground and that he had bottomed out for Champions Day. Perhaps I am a sceptic, but I have a lingering doubt that he may not be the horse he was here a year ago. Of course, he may not need to be with many of his challengers left trailing in his wake a year ago.
The one I like of the remainder is Trueshan and there are plenty of positives regarding his chances. He stole the show on Champions Day here at Ascot last season when bounding clear under Hollie Doyle to take the Long Distance Cup by seven and a half lengths. That was over 2 miles admittedly but there is evidence to suggest this trip could eek out even more improvement. In what was his first try over 2 miles he was slightly keen but still finished very strongly in the soft conditions. It was an improvement on his previous form and I love his profile for the race. His form is better the further in distance he has gone in his career to date and I firmly believe he will stay. The slight doubt is the ground but he won on good at Salisbury prior to his win at Ascot. Any overnight rain would help his chances but I think at this trip, good ground would not be an issue as stamina, which appears to be his forte, will still come to the fore. He is probably short enough at this juncture though so will play a waiting game regarding his price. There are plenty of others too and if the heavens really opened you would have to give a chance to Princess Zoe who was one of the stories of last season.
I always think the seven furlong distance is a bit of a specialist distance. A number of horses can be different animals at seven furlongs, having failed at six or a mile. Volatile Analyst (perhaps aptly named) may have found his preferred distance after having reasonable success sprinting before then trying a mile at York. However, his first start over this distance at York last month resulted in an emphatic success, benefitting from a positive ride. I think a 6lb rise is more than fair and his new mark of 100 should still be within his compass when looking at some of his back form. As a two-year-old, he was only beaten just over four lengths by Golden Horde at Gooodwood. That run came on good ground while he has won on good to firm and soft so the weather will not affect his chance. He is drawn highest of all and that stall has form figures of 1140 in the four races run on the straight course this week with more than 16 runners. The fourth was Ouzo at 33/1 with the unplaced runner 250/1 outsider Freyabella in the Windsor Castle. The fact that there is an apparent shift in the bias may represent a greater opportunity to grab that rail and in an open contest, I think he has a good a chance as any and represents excellent value.
The race prior to the Gold Cup sees the middle distance fillies battle it out in the Ribblesdale without the daunting task of facing Snowfall, the emphatic Oaks winner at Epsom. It looks a wide open contest from a betting point of view with six horses in single figures at the time of writing. Three of those met just over a month ago at Newbury when Eshaada led home Gloria Mundi (second) and Twisted Reality (fourth). I would be leaning towards Gloria Mundi to turn around that form with the step up in trip sure to suit this daughter of Galileo. She was closing with every stride at Newbury having taken her time to find full stride, somewhat understandably on only her second start. She progressed from her first run to her second in the 29 days in between and I fully expect her to progress again since that effort. The stable have won three of the last four renewals and she looks sure to go well. There are other dangers too though, notably Dubai Fountain and Noon Star. Noon Star chased home Snowfall in the Musidora which is arguably the best piece of form on offer. Dubai Fountain won the Chester Oaks before disappointing at Epsom having been far too keen. A return to positive tactics might just see her return to her form on the Roodee. Overall, it is not a race that I can come down on the side of one or even two for that matter.
Continuing to work back through the card and prior to the Ribblesdale we have the Hampton Court. This race revolves around Mohaafeth or perhaps even more so the weather. It will be very interesting to see if the forecasted rain arrives and to what extent. If we got the rain of biblical proportions that has been mentioned in places, who knows if he will even run considering he was a non-runner on drying good to soft in the Derby. If Ascot survives some of the rain and the course rides good or better, I think he will be hard to beat and therefore I won't be getting involved in the race at this point. Movin Time is the obvious alternative given he easily disposed of Queens Vase winner Kemari earlier in the season clocking some impressive sectionals in the process. I would be surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of those two but the weather gods will dictate which side I eventually come down on. The Norfolk for the two-year-old's promises to be frenetic with a number of horses that have made the running in their short careers to date. To add further confusion, a number of those on the shortlist are drawn near the middle and the first two days have shown the advantage to be high, (or latterly low) but certainly not the middle. Generally speaking rain would accentuate this advantage as high draws have dominated on ground softer than good in recent years. There is too much guesswork involved for my liking and I'm going to sit this one out, with two-year-old races not my forte in any case.
0.5pt eway Volatile Analyst (22/1 PP, Betfair, 20/1 General) Royal Ascot 6.10 *use firms paying 6 places
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 95.5 points
Total Returned: 139.3 points
Total Profit: 43.8 points
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