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Royal Ascot Saturday

 How things can change quickly and having raced on good to firm throughout Thursday, Friday's card survived an eleventh hour inspection. I am hoping my luck will change like the weather did and Saturday will see a change in fortunes. Of course, Friday was spent scrimmaging through the form book trying to find horses that would/ would not act on softer conditions, particularly ones that had not seen their price collapse through Friday morning. They were few and far between.

Wonderful Tonight was one of those that did see her price collapse early Friday morning from 11/1 down to about 6/1 over the course of a couple of hours. The more images of heavy rain at Ascot appeared through the various media, the tighter her price got. The case for her is blatantly obvious as she simply loves testing conditions. She first came to prominence as a potential high class filly when winning a Group 3 on heavy ground at Deauville last August over the mile and a half trip. That came somewhat as a surprise as she was sent off 20/1 but was only the start of an impressive Autumn campaign. The upward curve was flattened temporarily on better ground next time but with the benefit of hindsight, it ended up much better than it seemed at the time. She was beaten four lengths by Tarnawa at Longchamp on that occasion but the return to soft ground saw a return to winning ways on Arc weekend in a strong Group 2. That defeat of Pista and Ebaiyra marked her down as a proper Group 1 filly and she confirmed that impression by winning the Group 1 here on Champions Day. She progressed throughout last season and with conditions having come in her favour, she looks sure to go very close. The slight concern being that it is her seasonal reappearance, but that is the only real negative. The conditions, combined with her form, should see her favourite for this race by the time they go to post and I think she is still a bet at 3/1 or more.

Archie Watson may feel aggrieved after losing the Commonwealth Cup in the stewards room, but he might gain quick compensation in the Diamond Jubilee. Glen Shiel has been incredibly progressive in the past few seasons, culminating in a Group 1 success on Champions Day last October. Having been with Dream of Dreams for each of his narrow defeats in this contest, I can't go against now and on the softer conditions he looks the one they all have to beat. Last season, he was possibly given too much to do, just failing to get there. Since that defeat, they have ridden him more forward in his races and a repeat of those tactics might tip the scales in his favour, gaining a deserved success in this race. It is not as clear-cut in my opinion as the previous contest however and I am not inclined to play the two again. The price is probably short enough on Dream of Dreams now and I will be keeping an eye on it. No play for now, hopefully he might drift back again. I was tempted to make Stag Horn a bet in the Queen Alexandra but with the fancy prices after disappearing I will pass for now. The main concern would be there seems to be plenty of pace on and I might wait to see how the race develops in the early stages before playing. 


1pt win Wonderful Tonight (4/1 General) Royal Ascot 3.40


Current P/L since June 2020:

Total Staked: 97.5 points

Total Returned: 139.3 points

Total Profit: 41.8 points

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