1.20 Triumph Hurdle
At the start of the week, I felt that Zanahiyr was
one of the bets of the week as the 2/1 or 9/4 was much too big. His price has
contracted since Saint Sam franked the form on Tuesday but I still think he is
value as I would have him an odds on shot. Furthermore, the stable form has not
suffered one bit due to the recent controversy. In terms of form and what they
have achieved, I think Zanahiyr is well clear of Tritonic. He jumps better and
I think he is the quicker horse despite what Tritonic may have achieved on the
flat. The time of the Kempton win last time suggests that Tritonic was perhaps
not as impressive as he looked. Admittedly, his last furlong was his best but
overall the time was average enough and while the stiff uphill finish will
suit, I can’t have him at a shorter price than Quilixios on what they have both
achieved over jumps. Zanahiyr blew me away at Fairyhouse (as mentioned here a few times) when he beat Saint
Sam by 14 lengths and nothing I have seen since has convinced me that he won’t
win the Triumph. That performance was marked up when the time analysis
started to appear and how favourably he compared with Ballyadam (amongst
others). It was a special performance in substance and quality. He was
obviously less impressive at Christmas but the horses were not running well at
the time and the race was run at a crawl. I am hoping Quilixios will set a good
pace and Zanahiyr can track as I think he will be seen to best effect then. Of
the others, Adagio could be a little overpriced as he disposed of Nassalam
pretty easily at Chepstow and has done nothing but improve all season. Zanahiyr
for me though, to get favourite backers off to a flier on Gold Cup day.
1.55 County Hurdle
Willie Mullins is always the first port of call for me in
this race as he has such a good record in it. My eye was immediately drawn to Ganapathi,
who had little chance in the Grade 1 over 2m 6f at the Dublin Racing Festival.
It was his runs prior to that though that really interested me. The day he
won on debut in Cork, he actually recorded a quicker time than both The Devils
Coachman and Appreciate It who ran in the following two races. From 3 out to
the line, he was (slightly) behind Appreciate It but was still ahead of The
Devils Coachman having gone much quicker earlier in the race. That
certainly suggests that he can be very competitive off his mark here. I thought
he would have gone very close to beating The Real Deal if he had not fluffed
the last on his penultimate start. He handed the initiative to The Real Deal
and was unable to recover up the relatively short run in. The fact that he
clearly stays must be a positive in this race and I think he is
well-handicapped off a mark of 141. There are dangers aplenty not least Éclair
De Beaufeu who I have followed a couple of times this year and Fifty Ball for
the Moores who was a good second in the Betfair recently. However, I think the
selection has a great chance and I am happy to put him forward as my sole
representative.
2.30 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
I have been waiting for this race all week as one of my
biggest fancies at a price runs here. I feel this race could throw up another
double-figure priced winner as there are question marks over a number of those
at the top of the market. Streets Of Doyen has done nothing but improve
all season and I think this race is perfect for him. He ticks a lot of boxes
including course and distance form, is a second-season novice and has plenty of
runs under his belt (reminds me a lot of At Fishers Cross who won the race for
Rebecca Curtis). As well as that, he looks a really tough sort and I think he will
love the battle that this race often becomes. It is a gruelling test for
novices and any weaknesses will be found in the last mile with so little
jumping and stamina coming to the fore. My reading of his form has me
struggling to figure out just why he is such a big price (I backed him at 30 on
the Exchange a few weeks ago) and almost second-guessing myself. It could be
that he is coming from a small stable but one that excel with their small
string. He has had a lot of runs but I am going to focus on those in or around
this sort of trip which appear to be the key to this horse and show his
extremely progressive profile. His first run at 3 miles was in a low-grade
affair in Roscommon off a mark of just 113 and he won with a bit to spare. It
is almost like that win gave him confidence because from there his form takes
off. On his next start he beat Flooring Porter (did lug left up the straight and might have won if keeping a straight line) by 5 lengths at Gowran, admittedly in receipt of 11lb but
that looks a much better effort now. Since then, Flooring Porter has obviously bolted
up in a handicap off 136 and won the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. He then
won at Cork and while there wasn’t anything like Flooring Porter in behind, the
race has still worked out quite well. The second winning a handicap recently at
Naas off 131. He did well to win there as I’m not sure that race would have played
to his strength which appears to be abundant stamina. He came to Cheltenham in
October for what looked like a prep for this and won impressively, charging up
the hill. He had Fergal O Brien’s Polish well beaten back in third (in receipt
of 3lb) who again won a competitive handicap recently off 130 while the fourth
who was beaten miles has won twice since. You can ignore his last run as that
was just a pipe-opener over an inadequate trip but they used it to try
cheekpieces to sweeten him up a bit and sharpen his jumping. They obviously
felt it worked and they are worn again here. If he can eek out any bit of
improvement I think he will certainly be bang there and if he is there going to
the last, I don’t think he will be found wanting. I am not saying he is the
second coming, but I think he should be half the price he currently is and you
could argue his form, when weighed up, is as good as anything else in the race.
I would have him a nice bit higher than his official 138 which would put him
right there on ratings. The market principals were well beaten by Gaillard Du Mesnil
and while they might improve for a trip, I don’t think any of them are
potential superstars.
3.05 Gold Cup
History in the making. That is the main story of the week
and can Al Boum Photo join the greats by winning a third Gold Cup. I vaguely
remember Best Mate and what a huge achievement it was at the time but I would
love for my generation to witness this piece of history. I feel he hasn’t got
the credit he deserves, but surely if he is successful then he must go down as
one of the great staying chasers. His novice campaign could be partly to blame
for that but don’t forget he was about to win at Punchestown only for Paul
Townend to make an error of judgement. He was won two Gold Cups in different
styles and is clearly the one they all have to beat. I feel he was a work in
progress the year he ran in the RSA when he fell when looking beaten but apart
from that blemish, he has looked brilliant around here. It is clear that he is
better off a stronger gallop and I think that looks fairly assured here. Champ and
Minella Indo bring represent the second season chasers but come here on the
back of indifferent seasons. Champ has only had one run since winning the RSA
last year and that was over two miles. Surely, he would break all stats in
terms of preparations in a season. He looked great at Newbury for what it is
worth and his jumping in particular was excellent. He was very exuberant though
and the question remains how he will settle. He appears to be another one who
will want them to go a good pace. While he stays really well, he certainly isn’t
slow and he should have no issue laying up with a strong early pace. I think he
is the biggest danger despite his unconventional prep. One that a strong pace
may inconvenience is A Plus Tard who can jump quite slow, as seen in last
season’s Ryanair. The drying ground is a concern even though the trainer/jockey
combination are red-hot. He has never won on anything better than soft ground admittedly
from limited evidence but I’ve always had him as a soft ground horse. Of the
others, while they may run well, it is hard to envisage them winning. The Gold
Cup has become rather predictable in terms of trends and it is quite rare that
we get a left-field result. Minella Indo would be my idea of the best of the
remainder with the mention of returning him to positive tactics a plus. He
jumps much better from the front and I think the better ground will actually
help him too. It is hard to see him winning but I think he might outrun his
odds. I am conscious it is the highlight of the week and everyone wants a bet
but I can’t strongly make a case for one. I think the market is spot on. Al
Boum Photo is the most likely winner and my heart will be hoping he can make
his piece of history. I think Champ is reasonably solid against him and looks
like a bet to nothing each-way as it hard to see him out of the frame. I’ll be
quite happy to watch and enjoy.
3.40 Foxhunters Chase
Not a race I can claim to have a handle on so certainly won’t
be a race I will be advising on. It Came To Pass was incredibly impressive last
year and it is a race that throws up a number of repeat winners. He has been
awful this season, and that is not being overly critical, but the ground is the
key to him and he will love the drying ground. Billaway is the solid one
although a beaten favourite in the race last year. He looks to have improved
but his jumping is a slight concern. If he jumps better, he is sure to go close
too.
4.15 Mares Chase
The new Mares Chase hasn’t quite captured the trainer’s attention just yet as it is quite an average renewal for its inaugural running. I think this field really lacks depth and I would be shocked if the winner comes from outside the top four in the market so they are the ones I am going to focus on as each have reasonable credentials. Shattered Love has five and a half lengths to find with Elimay on their last run (same weight difference here) but the drying ground is not ideal for her. All her best form is on soft or heavy ground. She does have Festival winning form in the book though, over this course and distance too. However, that was in an average renewal of the Marsh (or whatever it was called at the time) and it was on proper soft ground, heavy in places officially. Her other visits to the Festival have been rather disappointing on better ground and unless we get some unexpected rain, I find it hard to see her winning here. Colreevy might just be similar in terms of ground as that is certainly the main question mark against her. Her form since going chasing at the start of this campaign has been exceptional and she brings close to the best form to the table. In particular, her defeat of Pencilfulloflead in the Grade 1 at Limerick was a top class effort. He had beaten Latest Exhibition prior to that and I think he is a very good horse going right-handed and she beat him on his own terms. The question remains whether they were Colreevy’s terms and is she better going right-handed too? I’m not sure she needs heavy ground as she beat Abacadabras in a Bumper at Punchestown a few years ago on good to soft. Her Cheltenham form is hard to analyse as neither were her optimum conditions but it is hard to say she ran to form on both occasions. She doesn’t have a lot of form left-handed to go on but I just feel there is enough of a question mark there to raise doubt.
Elimay is similar
as most of her form right-handed but she won well at Naas last time and that
slightly puts the mind at ease. I think it is easier forgive her run here a
couple of years ago as it was just her second start for Willie Mullins and her
chase form is much better in any case. The standout piece of form was obviously
getting close to Allaho at Thurles in receipt of just 2lb although the race was
slightly set up for her so may have been slightly flattered. To me, she was one
of the favourites I thought was value a couple of weeks ago. She has shortened
but comparably speaking she is still a bigger price than Concertista was
and there are not near as many potential dangers. She gets 2lb from her main
rival but I think she is probably just about the right price now. I was tempted but I didn't want to select two short ones and I felt of the two Zanahiyr was better value. The one at a bigger price that might be interesting is Magic Of Light, while this trip may be on the short side. She has an excellent strike rate over fences of late, although has been chasing rather sparingly in an attempt to mind her mark. She probably has a bit to find with the principles but is not without hope.
4.50 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
There was a couple in here I was interested in but the more
I looked at it, the more names cropped up. In particular I think Gabynako has the
standout piece of form but has not been missed in the market. His run behind
Bob Olinger and Blue Lord looks very good now (beaten just 8 and ¾ lengths) and
I think you can ignore his run at Leopardstown as the drop in trip would not
have suited. Frontal Assault is interesting down the bottom of the weights under
Jordan Gainford who I still believe will have a winner this week. He kept extremely
good company in bumpers (second to Energumene and third to Ferny Hollow) and
won a Grade 3 at Navan last time. They would probably just be my preferences
but Fire Attack and Gentleman Du Mee look to have been laid out for this and
must be respected from their stables.
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