My main takeaways from Cheltenham 2021

The 2021 Cheltenham Festival lived up to the weighty expectations that were placed on it in the build-up to the biggest week of the racing year. We had the brilliant winners that marked themselves down as potential superstars, while Tiger Roll literally rolled back the years with an emotional win that epitomized the National Hunt game. He has been a horse of a lifetime for not just connections but the general public. The fact that these horses can be enjoyed for several years allows the public to connect with them in a different way and become as familiar with them as those closest to them. While the Irish dominance has been the topic of huge debate, I believe that those involved in that dominance should be celebrated for their achievements in the game. We have become accustomed to Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott dominating at Cheltenham but Henry De Bromhead has built an incredible stable over the past few years and he was in scintillating form. His partnership with Rachael Blackmore has clearly benefitted both parties and they will be a growing force in the coming seasons. Rachael had an incredible week and it is hard to believe that she rode her first Cheltenham winner just two years ago. She is now firmly at the top of the sport.

Personally, I had a reasonably good week. Like any Cheltenham festival, you won’t get them all right and it is about picking your battles. The right horses won for me in terms of my strongest views, while admittedly some were stronger at various points in the season. I wrote here in this corresponding piece after Cheltenham last year that if you fancy a horse for Cheltenham, don’t procrastinate and that approach paid dividends. I was very keen on Allaho and Minella Indo early in the season and while they didn’t set the world alight this year, they did fulfil the promise they showed at the 2020 festival. It was a successful week for the blog too with a profit of 15.6 points and a ROI of 74%. It was great to recover from a shaky start on Tuesday, with the two winners and two placed on Thursday a clear highlight of the week. It was a different festival as it was my first since the blog started. I enjoyed the week immensely as I love sharing my thoughts and hope that they provide some information that can be of use to followers going forward. With that in mind, I have put together my main points from this year’s Festival, similar to my very first article here just under a year ago.

Age is more than just a number

While I would have always thought that older horses struggle at Cheltenham, I didn’t really look at the detail behind this opinion. In the past week, I have had a look at age statistics in greater detail and the evidence is undoubtedly against horses older than 8 at the Festival. Of the 28 races, just 3 winners were older than eight this year, namely Vintage Clouds, Porlock Bay and the aforementioned Tiger Roll. Porlock Bay is not a surprise as the Foxhunters winner has been in that bracket in each of the last five years. Similarly, the Ultima can throw up an older winner at times as having run in the race previously is a positive trend. While some may argue the stat is skewed as the novice races and the four-year-old races are not really applicable, I thought there would have been more older horses winning. In the past five years, only 20 of the 140 races have been won by horses older than 8 years and that includes the Foxhunters in each of those years.

Further investigation suggests that certain races are easier than others for the older horses. Aside from the Foxhunters, the Cross Country (3), the Champion Chase (3), the National Hunt Chase (2), the Grand Annual (2), the Ultima (2) and the Ryanair (2) are responsible for the others apart from William Henry in the Coral Cup in 2019. Among those that were successful were Tiger Roll (twice), Altior and Un De Sceaux which were special racehorses and are likely to break any trend against them. Of course, like any statistic, they can be broken but I will certainly be favouring younger horses, with the potential for better ground again at next year’s festival (due to dates) suggesting it may hinder the older horses even more.

The Mares are worth following

I am sure this will not be new information to most people, but it was an incredible week for mares in the Cotswolds. Of the 20 mares to compete against the geldings, 5 were successful showing a healthy level stakes profit of 42.6 points (a profit of €426 to a €10 stake). This may be an angle worth following in the coming seasons, assuming they still benefit from the 7lb allowance. There is little doubt that this will be discussed further with Honeysuckle becoming the third mare in recent seasons to win the Champion Hurdle and the other mare in the field Epatante finishing third. Put The Kettle On also won the Champion Chase and they were successful in three handicaps during the week. The excellent Mares programme in recent years (particularly in Ireland) has played a huge part in this and the quality of mare in Ireland now is exceptional. Already this season, Colreevy won the Grade 1 at Limerick over Christmas while Honeysuckle had a pair of Grade 1s already in her locker before Cheltenham. The 7lb allowance may not last for too long more but I will be hoping to avail of this angle for as long as it does.

The form holds up at Cheltenham and Cheltenham form is the strongest of all

I mentioned in a piece after Cheltenham last year that the previous festival is the first place to start when looking for next year’s Festival winners, but I think it is a point worth reiterating. You can read the full article and deeper analysis under “Horses that could make amends at Cheltenham 2021” but here is a short extract “I believe that we have seen at least 12 of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival winners run at this season’s festival based on analysis of the results over the past five seasons. If my opinion that the quality from the 2020 Festival (particularly the novice hurdlers) was above average is proven to be correct, we may even have seen more.”

Last week, we actually saw 15 winners that ran at the 2020 Festival and 11 of those finished in the first three at the previous Festival. Again, given that you can exclude the Bumper winner and the two four-year-old races it is a much stronger stat than it first appears. When scrolling through videos, there is no need to deviate too far from the obvious at Cheltenham as the form holds true. In fact, Cheltenham form is the strongest form of all. Cheltenham is probably the strongest place where collateral form holds up. There are always examples of this during the week and it is probably worth noting horses that have that collateral form prior to the week as the value quickly goes. Heaven Help Us gave the Telmesomethinggirl form a boost and she duly franked that form in the Mares Novice Hurdle. Allaho and Minella Indo likewise. Flooring Porter’s win saw Streets Of Doyen’s odds halve and he ran well without winning.

I also mentioned in this review last year about the value of Cheltenham form in general throughout the season and while a couple of meetings were lost, we still saw plenty of winners run at the Cotswolds earlier this season. Again, there is no need to scroll through horses that shaped well. At the October meeting, Galvin won before being put away for the National Hunt Chase. Put The Kettle On and The Shunter both won at the November meeting while Mrs Milner was a very close second. Tiger Roll was the exception as he was pulled up in November, but he has of course plenty of top quality form here!! Just for good measure Chantry House was third in December and Sky Pirate won impressively before taking the Grand Annual at the Festival.

The Grade 1 races represent poor value from a betting viewpoint (on the day)

This is something that has become more of an issue in recent years but could possibly be about to get worse if the early markets are anything to go by. I found myself having very few bets in the top Grade 1 races (if I wasn’t already involved ante-post) as the value was gone on the day of the race. I am not a backer at short prices, particularly at Cheltenham and some of the prices on offer last week were certainly not a working man’s price. The feeling is that to get any value, particularly in the Graded races, you must be involved early in the time, certainly before the Dublin Racing Festival when many of the Irish will have their final prep run. It is certainly an argument for the three-day festival as uncompetitive racing and odds-on favourites do nothing for the enjoyment of the sport for most people.

An early look at next year is worrying as a number of horses are already in single-figure digits for a race in twelve months’ time. Bookmakers now seem to cut horses on the back of any winning effort and with so many different pundits analysing the action, any value in the markets is quickly snapped up. The issue with horses not getting there or their target not known or likely to change makes it a difficult task but one that punters may have to get used to if value is a key component of your strategy. This is my way of saying I will hope to introduce a more detailed ante-post book for Cheltenham 2022 from the beginning of next season. Stay tuned!!