Cheltenham Day 1

 

I have not been as excited writing something since I wrote my last letter to Santa over 20 years ago. Perhaps as a result of the strange times we are in (or the recency bias), but I don’t remember looking forward to Cheltenham as much as this before. We haven’t really had much to look forward to in recent months and Cheltenham this week will hopefully give us some semblance of normality. However, Cheltenham will be very different too. The crowds, or lack of them to be more precise, will be surreal. The lack of activity should make it easier for the horses and jockeys in theory, but one can only imagine how the lack of atmosphere will affect the Festival as a whole.

Cheltenham has become such a focus point that virtually every horse that has won impressively in the past 6 months has been mentioned in the context of the Festival. Any equine star worth mentioning must have been itching their nose over the past few weeks as the virtual previews took over. The talking is almost over and we can look forward to four fabulous days. Above all, be responsible and enjoy the Festival for what it is. I once read from a very shrewd judge that there are many better even money shots throughout the year when compared to those at Cheltenham. Value can be hard to find with such analysis and the mature markets we are left with but we will do our best.

 

1.20 Supreme Novices Hurdle

I must start with a confession here. I was really hoping Appreciate It would run in the Ballymore having had him in a few small multiple bets at the start of the season. I thought he would be better stepping up in trip and have spent the last few weeks trying to find something to prove that theory correct and get him beat in the Supreme. However, the more I have looked at the other runners, the more holes I have found and I have come round to the fact that Appreciate It (despite probably being better over a longer trip) is by far the most likely winner. The reason I felt he was a horse worth following was primarily I felt his effort in the Champion Bumper last season was much better than it appeared. They went a searching gallop and he was up there throughout, eventually unable to hold off the late challenge of Ferny Hollow, possibly with his early exertions taking their toll. Of the first 10 horses home, he was the only one to race closer than mid-division throughout, with the first and fourth both coming from the last pair. Of the opposition, he has beaten Ballyadam twice and while Ballyadam was much better last time than at Christmas, he has struck me as a weak finisher and it is hard to envisage him passing Appreciate It up the hill. The recent stable change is another unknown quantity but it is easy to see him travelling there to two out… The question is what will be in the tank from there home. Blue Lord was ridden very conservatively last time at Leopardstown but I felt he didn’t gain much ground from the last flight home. Perhaps he had too much running done to that point, but I don’t see how he will reverse the form. Metier is a bit of an unknown quantity as he has been incredibly impressive, but the form has more holes in it than any golf course and it is hard to be confident about what he has achieved. In his three races, only one horse to finish behind him (out of 22 in total) has won a race subsequently (Amarillo Sky off a lowly mark of 115) and you would like to see more substance before getting involved in a Grade 1 at around 5/1. Furthermore, his hurdles form is all on soft or heavy although he did have a maiden win on the flat on yielding. Soaring Glory brings the Betfair Hurdle form to the table. I think it was a strong renewal of that handicap and he was very impressive, albeit off a mark of 133. In the last 12 years, Get Me Out Of Here, Recession Proof, My Tent Or Yours, Splash Of Ginge, Ballyandy, Kalashnikov and Al Dancer all failed to follow up, despite winning the handicap off a higher mark than Soaring Glory. Get Me Out Of Here, My Tent Or Yours and Kalashnikov did all go close and it is easy to see Soaring Glory hit the frame, but maybe find one to good. The right horse is favourite (at the right price) and I’ll be quite happy to watch it rather than get involved, with the “dead eight” declared making each-way betting even more perilous.

 

1.55 Arkle Novices Chase

This race was robbed of much of its intrigue with the late defection of Energumene which was a huge pity. Simply, Shishkin looks very hard to beat, but it is Cheltenham (and a novice chase at that) so anything can happen. He has looked a class above to-date, won the Supreme last year when everything that could go wrong did go wrong and his times hold up to the greatest scrutiny. Of the opposition that remain, I only see captain Guinness making any sort of race of it. He has yet to show his potential over fences and has erred in his jumping on a couple of occasions. He did shape quite well until coming down three out at the Dublin Racing Festival last time and I am sure he will be better on the forecast ground. Allmankind has been a revelation over fences but he can be very low, and I can see the fences around here catching him out. He will need to jump much better than he did last time to have any chance although he may now get an easy time on the front end. He was very impressive in the Henry VIII at Sandown on Tingle Creek Day and a repeat of that would see him best of the rest. Franco De Port won the Grade 1 at Christmas but was no match for Energumene last time. He did make an early mistake on that occasion so that performance can be marked up but realistically would be hoping to pick up place money unless something unforeseen happens. I am not going to say too much more, Shishkin will win, and I will gladly watch this again in the hope of seeing an emerging star strut his stuff. It will be the first time in a few years that I will not have a bet in the opening two races of the Festival.

 

2.30 Ultima Handicap Chase

This has probably been one of the more punter-friendly handicaps at the festival with 15 out of the last 20 coming from the top 5 in the betting. I don’t think this year will be too different, in fact I actually feel the race lacks depth in comparison to previous renewals. I hope I am proven right as I am confident on the prospects of Happygolucky for the in-form Kim Bailey team. His course form is excellent, the stable form is red-hot, and I think a mark of 147 leaves plenty of room for improvement. He was fourth in a strong renewal of the Martin Pipe last season off a mark of 137 and I am sure he will be much higher over fences in time than his current mark of 147. He won over course and distance earlier this season at the December meeting and he has been put away since. He boasts an excellent record fresh, winning first time up both this season and last. The win first time this year at Stratford could hardly have worked out any better. He has a class element too as he got within 4 lengths of Thyme Hill in a novice hurdle here last season, highlighting his potential to be a graded performer over fences. The price is a little on the short side for a competitive handicap, but I cannot let him go unbacked. There are a couple of dangers, in particular Milan Native who was very impressive when winning the Kim Muir last year. He is 8lb higher though and I think there are a few in here that are better than anything he met on that occasion. Onefortheteam brings graded novice form to the table too and is dangerous off his mark. I was tempted to put him up as a saver but his lack of course form is a slight concern, particularly going into a handicap.

 

3.05 Champion Hurdle

We have an intriguing renewal of the Champion Hurdle with two high quality mares taking on the boys. I must say I have found this race quite difficult to figure out. The pace will undoubtedly be strong and the question is whether or not it will hold up late on or they will set the race up for something ridden with more restraint. When I thought about it, I think Honeysuckle holds the key. She is the one that the others will be watching and certainly won’t want to let go. As a result, I think both Epatante and Sharjah will be ridden closer to the pace. I am not sure that will suit either of them as they both like one run with an explosive turn of foot rather than a long, protracted run. Epatante was brilliant in this race last year but they went slow early and was slightly found out at Kempton at Christmas by Silver Streak who went a strong gallop (admittedly reported to be not quite right afterwards). Her jumping left her down on that occasion and will need to be as good as it was last year for her to emerge victorious.

Honeysuckle has an incredible record and while she isn’t always as impressive as she was in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month, she always gets the job done. Her hurdling has been electric this season and she seems to be showing more acceleration than in previous years. She is undoubtedly the one they all have to beat. Goshen is the horse I found hardest to get a hold of (not alone there I am sure). There would hardly be a more popular winner all week after what happened last year. He was sensational on that occasion until the mishap at the last and showed something like that zest at Wincanton last time. He took decent horses out of their comfort zone, just like he did in the Triumph last year. However, with all the pace on here and the quality of the opposition, I’m not so sure he will be able to do that on this occasion.

Abacadabras has been on my radar for the race from the minute he passed the post a close second in last year’s Supreme. I thought he was unlucky on that occasion, not getting a lead for long enough and just going down to Shishkin in a wonderful battle up the hill. They pulled miles clear of good horses and the time was good too. If he can reproduce that effort, he must surely go close. I am willing to forgive his form this season as there have been valid excuses for his defeats. He was a long way behind Honeysuckle last time but the ground would have suited her and it was a step back in the right direction. I think he will get much closer to her with an excellent course record (also fourth in the Champion Bumper) and the race set to be run to suit. I am not sure if he will beat Honeysuckle in a battle up the hill if it does come to that but I think he is sure to go very close and he rates a bet in the "without the mares market".

 

3.40 Mares Hurdle

I think the Mares Hurdle could be more competitive than the market suggests. Concertista has excellent course form here and looks to have improved this season. I am not sure she should be quite as short as she is though, and I certainly wouldn’t be a backer at around even money (see introduction). Roksana has been excellent at staying trips this season and while I have doubted her in the past, she has taken her form to a new level. She won the race in 2019 when Benie Des Dieux fell at the last when in command but was a never near fourth last year behind Honeysuckle (beaten just over 11 lengths).

Indefatigable is the one at a big price that would interest me. I wouldn't put anyone off backing her in the full market but the safer play is in the betting without Concertista and Roksana market. You have to just ignore her runs this season and base it on her course form. Her form figures at Cheltenham read 5121, with the unplaced effort coming in the Mares Novice Hurdle two years ago over an inadequate two miles (beaten just over 5 lengths, Concertista second). I say inadequate because it took every inch of the extended two-and-a-half-mile trip for her to get her head in front in last year’s Martin Pipe. The aforementioned race could be a line of form worth following (Happygolucky already advised earlier in the card and The Bosses Oscar later in the week). She won that off a mark of 145 (The Bosses Oscar ran off 138) which would put her right in the mix here on ratings although her form this season has not been near that standard. She does take a while to find her form though and the better ground should help too. Like myself, she likes the Spring and the recent wind op can only enhance her claims.

 

4.15 Boodles Handicap Hurdle

This is not a race I have a particularly good record in and has been quite often hard to predict since its inception. There are always plenty of “talking horses” and this year is certainly no different. Personally, I found it very hard to narrow my shortlist sufficiently to suggest a bet, or even two for that matter. French horses have a particularly good record in the race so they could be worth focusing on, although in this instance that particular trend doesn’t help too much with so many of them in here. Saint Sam and Busselton, bringing their placed Graded form to the table, caught my eye. If Zanahiyr is as good as I think he is, they are surely well-handicapped off their respective marks. Riviere Detel is interesting for Denise Foster. She shaped quite well behind The Devils Coachman last time and returns to take on her own age here (another positive trend). That is without even mentioning the English contingent and the highly rated Houx Gris in particular. I have raised the white flag, this is too difficult.

 

4.50 National Hunt Chase

This looks a very strong renewal, perhaps as a result of the thought of taking on Monkfish in the Brown Advisory appealing to very few. I have been keen to oppose Galvin for a while and I certainly don’t think he is much value around 9/4. The advice for anyone that fancies him would be to wait as I am sure there will be bigger than that available at some point. He was impressive here in October (albeit didn’t beat much) and ran very well in the Novice Handicap Chase behind Imperial Aura last year. He just doesn’t strike me as a horse that will relish this test and Jack Kennedy will need to be at his best to conserve enough to get him up the hill at the end of almost four miles. Remastered should ensure it is a test and he represents the Reynoldstown form (responsible for 2 of the last 5 winners). He should love the trip and jumps for fun and would be my idea of the value in the race. Next Destination is the most likely winner but again doesn’t scream value to me. He has proven Grade 1 form in the book as a novice, has age on his side and has been very good over fences so far. Escaria Ten is a moderate jumper but should stay and while he would have gone close in an average renewal I am not sure he has the beating of some of these. I actually backed Lord Royal ante-post as I thought the race might cut up more but I’m gone cold on him. I just don’t know how resolute he would be in a battle, which this race invariably is. If the day hasn’t been a disaster, I might get involved before the off on either Next Destination or Remastered (each-way) but I’ll keep my powder dry for now.

1pt win Happygolucky (7/2 General) Cheltenham 2.30

0.5pt eway Abacadabras (11/2 General) Cheltenham 3.05 (without Honeysuckle)

0.5pt eway Indefatigable (5/1 Bet365, 9/2 General) Cheltenham 3.40 (without Concertista and Roksana)