1.20 Marsh Novices Chase
The Marsh Novices Chase sees the third short-priced novice
chaser of the week and this time it is the turn of Envoi Allen. He brings an
unbeaten record into the race and to date has swept all before him in bumpers
and over hurdles. This will be his biggest test to date over fences as through
no fault of his own, he has only had a couple of small field moderate races in
this campaign. We know the engine is there as he was a breathtaking winner of
the Ballymore last season in a very quick time. His jumping has been more than
adequate if not spectacular and he is the one they all have to beat as the
price would suggest. There are some decent opposition for him to deal with
though not least Shan Blue for the Skelton’s who is a brilliant jumper and was
impressive in the Feltham at Christmas. On that occasion, he was much too good
for The Big Breakaway and the result was never in doubt. I think this race will
really suit him and if he is over the exertions of his Sandown effort, when
worn down by Sporting John, he should go well. The other interesting one in my
view is Chatham Street Lad who absolutely bolted up her in the December Gold
Cup off a mark of 141 over this course and distance. Envoi Allen wins but
hopefully we see a good contest. I like front runners over this trip on the
chase course so I’ll take Shan Blue to make up the forecast.
1.55 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
The Bosses Oscar has been the name on many lips for
this race since he was an eyecatching fifth in the Martin Pipe at last year’s
Festival. Hardly the most hidden plot, he has been campaigned with the race in
mind all season and it would be surprising if he doesn’t improve again for the
shrewd stable (admittedly not in name) that have won the race for the past
three years. He was staying on strongly up the hill last year, so the extra
distance is sure to suit although he does have a 13lb higher mark to contend
with (6lb if factoring in Jordan Gainford’s claim). There has been a lot of
talk about the rise he received compared to his Irish mark, as a result of the
Leopardstown race but quite often the ones that get the big rise are the ones
that win (Presenting Percy in particular, comes to mind). That form has been
franked to an extent so far this week and I think he was the best horse in that
race. He has steadily improved this season and his second to Flooring Porter
was followed up with a slightly unlucky defeat at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He looks sure to run his race and it is very hard to see him out of the frame.
There are plenty of dangers of course like any Cheltenham handicap. Paul
Nolan’s Mrs Milner looks to have been laid out for it too and is his only
runner here this week. She was fourth in the qualifier that The Bosses Oscar
but was ridden more prominently on that occasion than when second to On The
Blindside here in November. She has paid the price for the Leopardstown race
(first four raised) which has been hammered by the English handicapper and got
an extra 5lbs as a result. The other one I like though is Come On Teddy. He
was only third in the qualifier won by Imperial Alcazar at Haydock but he was
left on the same mark (while the winner got 8lb). I think the Heavy ground on
that occasion would not have suited as both his career wins have come on “soft,
good to soft in places”. His previous course and distance win here in December
when he thrashed On The Blindside marked him down as a real Pertemps candidate.
Admittedly that was off 127, but anyone who watched that race at the time or
since must surely think he can at least be competitive off 134, with On The
Blindside a reliable yardstick this season.
2.30 Ryanair Chase
Having already advised Allaho before he ran this year, in
the hope that the race would cut up like it normally does, I was disappointed
to see this shape up to being the most competitive Grade 1 of the week. The
whole field are covered by just 11lbs on official ratings and you could make a
case for any of them if pushed. Looking at Allaho, firstly, I think he is not
without hope, particularly if they ride him aggressively but I don’t think he
is value now. I thought his last run was better than he got the credit for as
he beat the two that went with him by miles. They went very hard early and I
was pleasantly surprised he had enough in the tank to hold off Elimay and move
away again up the straight. I think something similar here will be his best
chance of winning as I feel he jumps much better when he they are aggressive
with him. The problem with that is there is so much potential pace in the race
that they might set it up for one held up. Melon, Min and Imperial Aura are all
sure to be up there. They all have strong claims and despite Melon not winning
very often, he is the one horse you would pick from this field to make the
frame. It is a much deeper contest than those though as you have last year’s
runner-up Saint Calvados, the enigmatic Samcro who is two from two at the
Festival, Real Steel who was travelling best of all in the Gold Cup at the
bottom of the hill last year and last year’s slightly unlucky Marsh fourth
Mister Fisher. However, I am still not finished as I could easily make a case
for Chris’s Dream who goes very well fresh and is one of the best jumpers of a
fence I have seen and last year’s Arkle second Fakir Doudairies who looks sure
to appreciate the step up in trip. You get the picture, I don’t have a strong
opinion on this race. If you pushed me for a selection now, it would probably
just about be Melon (each-way) for the reason given above but I think it is a
race to watch as it promises to be a cracking contest.
3.05 Stayer’s Hurdle
Thyme Hill was one of my earliest ante-post bets for the
Festival, so I was very disappointed to hear last week that he would miss the
race. Paisley Park is now the solid favourite in his bid to redeem his crown he
lost twelve months ago when he trailed home in seventh. He was subsequently
diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat but thankfully has returned to something
like his best this season. Anyone who watched the race at Ascot last time certainly
wouldn’t question his heart as he came from nowhere to snatch victory from the
jaws of defeat. He is the obvious place to start as the defeat last year
brought to an end a streak of seven wins on the trot. He returned this season
with a very satisfactory second to Thyme Hill at Newbury (giving him 3lbs).
That race was run at a very steady pace and he was seen to much better effect
at Ascot. The guaranteed pace in this race will surely suit but there isn’t
much value in his current price. The aforementioned pace is likely to come from
Flooring Porter who has had an incredible rise through the rankings this
season. He won a handicap hurdle at Gowran in July off a mark of 122. He was
then beaten at Galway and back at Gowran before bolting up in a competitive
looking handicap at Navan in early December. He beat The Bosses Oscar by 12
lengths in receipt of 1lb on that occasion, off a mark of 136. However, it was
his performance at Leopardstown at Christmas that saw him shoot to prominence
in the Stayer’s Hurdle market. He is now officially rated 160 and regardless of
the result here he has been one of the stories of the season. He could face
competition for the lead here which may make things more difficult.
The Storyteller has been mixing it between hurdles and fences successfully throughout the season. He was second in the Leopardstown race despite some sketchy jumping, staying on really well to pinch second from stablemate Sire Du Berlais. They are quite closely matched on last seasons Pertemps form when The Storyteller lost out by half a length in receipt of 3lbs. The two pulled well clear on that occasion in a very good time (2 seconds quicker than the Stayer’s). They had Third Wind back in fourth, in receipt of 11lbs and 8lbs respectively, who won the Rendlesham at Haydock last time from Lisnagar Oscar and was behind Paisley Park at Ascot before that.
I think Sire Du Berlais is the main danger to
Paisley Park based on his Cheltenham form, with last year being his second consecutive
success in the Pertemps. He won off 152 last year while his mark the previous year
was just 145. He has a bit to find to with a peak-form Paisley Park and will
need to improve even more again from last year. He is starting to travel better
in his races and I think you can ignore the run at Christmas as the horses
weren’t quite right. Prior to that, I was very impressed with his win at Navan
over an inadequate two and a half miles, particularly how he travelled and
picked up in that race. Ronald Pump was beaten on that occasion when falling
before going on to give the mighty Honeysuckle a scare in the Hatton’s Grace. The
market is just about right I think and it will be a no bet race for me.
3.40 Plate Handicap Chase
I really like course and distance form over the intermediate trip over fences at Cheltenham. Time and time again, the same horses pop up in these races (the Paddy Power, December Gold Cup and this race just a few of those) and invariably run well. Two prime examples of that are Mister Whitaker and Happy Diva, third and second in the race last year off 2lb and 4lb (excluding 3lb claim) higher marks respectively. Mister Whitaker has run six times over this trip here (give or take a margin of 100y or so) and his form figures read 114153. The three beaten efforts all off a mark of 152 or 153 with his highest winning mark is 149. He clearly doesn’t have much room to play with here off 150 but I think the case for him to be bang there is clear from those figures and he looks good value at his current price. He may find one or two too good again but as we saw with Vintage Clouds earlier this week, horses that run well in these races consistently may win without looking obviously well handicapped.
Happy Diva is a similar story, her form figures are B212F. She
steadily rose through the ratings with those runs with the corresponding
ratings 140, 140, 143, 149 and 151. She was an excellent second in the race
last year behind the seemingly well-handicapped Simply The Betts and was a
couple clear of the remainder. She was not going to win the Paddy Power when
she fell but she was in the process of running a decent race off a mark of 151.
I was surprised her mark was revised down to 145 off the back of her run last
time at Warwick when she wasn’t given a hard time and I think she has everything
in her favour to go very close.
4.15 Mares Novice Hurdle
Similar to last year prior to the off, it looks a wide open contest and one wonders if we will see a Concertista like performance or whether there will be very little to spilt these mares like those that fought out the places last year. Willie Mullins has a host of chances in here and the vibes are that they are not even sure what is their strongest prospect. Personally, I am happy to go with the form of the open Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. The race would have had the first three home in the Supreme had it not been for Blue Lord’s late mishap and Hook Up was finishing best of all of those at Leopardstown having been held up off the steady pace. The concern is her jumping but it was better last time and will need to be at least as good again as it was the main reason for her defeat by Royal Kahala at Fairyhouse. If her jumping holds up, I think she potentially has more gears than her rivals and the fact that there are only two hurdles in the last 7 furlongs can only help her cause. I am not sure what to make of the Solerina form and would be surprised if it holds up. I prefer Royal Kahala with both Gauloise and Roseys Hollow carrying penalties here. I am happy enough with Hook Up as I thought she would be a shorter price and I am confident she will go very close.
The other
one I want onside is Tellmesomethinggirl for the red-hot team Of Henry
De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore. She has seen her price contract dramatically,
rather unsurprisingly as on her penultimate start, she attempted to give 9lb to
Heaven Help Us. She has plenty of form over further which is often a huge
positive in 2m hurdle races here but she certainly isn’t slow and travels very
well. Just like Concertista, she is a second season novice and has plenty of
experience so I expect the hustle and bustle of this race to suit her well. The
good ground is the final piece of the jigsaw and I think she has everything in
her favour.
4.50 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
This is not a race I am a huge fan of if I am completely
honest and have not spent much time on it as a result, so I won’t be giving a
selection here. I had a small interest on Deise Aba ante-post so I was happy to
see him declared but I couldn’t suggest backing or tipping him at current
prices. A friend of mine (who has been having a good week) brought Go Another One
to my attention and he is certainly interesting if you go through his hurdles
form. His last run was behind none other than The Bosses Oscar when attempting
to give him 4lb and only beaten just under 10 lengths. That is high class
hurdles form and if he can transfer that to fences, he must surely be
well-handicapped off a mark of just 142. He was also fifth in a Punchestown
Grade 1 in 2019 to Minella Indo and beat Notebook over hurdles in a Thurles
Grade 3 earlier that year. He goes very well fresh too with form figures of
1432111F1 coming off a break of more than 50 days. The “F” was in this race
last year but is interesting he comes back again and if he jumps reasonable, he
might just have a class edge over some of his rivals. With just the seven chase
starts to date he s relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles.
The other one that interested me is Storm Control who in
keeping with the trend brings rock solid course and distance form. He won here
at both the November and December meetings so it would be a unique treble (unsure
if there is a stat on that). He is 2 from 2 over course and distance and while
he has only won by small margins on both occasions, he has been full value both
times, idling badly up the straight. He is not straightforward and looked like
he was going to throw the race away in December, but once pressed he recovered
well, not too dissimilar to Might Bite in that famous RSA Chase. If he keeps
his mind on the job, he is very talented for this grade and I expect him to go
close. However, no advised bet.
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