1.20 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
A small but select field go to post for the Grade 1 Novice
Hurdle over the intermediate trip of 2 miles 5 furlongs. The market has been
dominated by the “Big Three” for several weeks now and that partly explains the
small number of declarations. I have had Bob Olinger in mind for this race ever
since his debut over hurdles at Gowran in November (fortunate enough to hold a small
slip at a big price - don't accuse me of after-timing as it was mentioned here). On that occasion, he failed by just a length against the
highly regarded Ferny Hollow over an inadequate 2 miles. Ferny Hollow was
subsequently ruled out for the season but at the time appeared to be the number
one hope for the Willie Mullins stable in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (beat Appreciate It in last year's Champion Bumper). Since
then, he has enhanced his reputation by winning a maiden hurdle in effortless
fashion and then taking Grade 1 honours at Naas in mid-January. That race has a
habit of throwing up potential stars and while this year’s renewal may not have
been a vintage one, he did dispose of Blue Lord very easily (admittedly ran
keen). Blue Lord would surely have been second in the Supreme if he didn't fall at the last despite again being keen so there is some substance to that form. I particularly liked the way he hit the line on that occasion having
previously shown a lot of speed over 2 miles.
Gaillard Du Mesnil progressed from his debut at Punchestown
to win a traditionally hot maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. That
form has been franked since and Willie Mullin’s grey did his bit for the form
when winning the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2 miles 6 furlongs.
While he was impressive in the end, I felt the acceleration was laboured and
for a while turning for home, I thought he may not pick up his stable-mate
Stattler. Paul Nicholls is represented by Bravemansgame who regardless of how
he fairs tomorrow will certainly be worth following over fences next season. He
has improved with every run and like Bob Olinger met defeat on his debut over
hurdles at Chepstow over 2 miles (to none other than Soaring Glory). He then
won at Exeter before going on to win at Newbury in late November. He shot to
prominence in this market when winning the Challow Hurdle at Newbury over
Christmas in impressive fashion. While Challow winners have a poor record in
the race, he will be a danger to all if getting his own way on the front end
and his hurdling is exceptional. It is hard to look beyond the main
protagonists although Bear Ghylls would have a chance in an average renewal.
One feels this may not be an average renewal though and that the winner of this
may be exceptional. I like all three horses and find it hard to split them in
all honesty. However, I am fairly sure neither of the others would be able to
go with Ferny Hollow over two miles and I feel Bob Olinger may have a better
turn of foot, that might swing it in his favour. I am conscious it may be a
slightly biased view and I don’t see any value at the prices now to suggest a
bet.
1.55 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
The race formerly known as the RSA has a new sponsor this
year. They might just get the best value for money as the race is eagerly
awaited due to the presence of a potential superstar of the National Hunt Game.
Monkfish announced himself at this Festival last year with a game success in
the Albert Bartlett. I have been raving about him ever since as I thought it
was a performance that was even more impressive given he was keen throughout
much of the race and made a couple of mistakes. He managed to outbattle Latest
Exhibition, Fury Road and Thyme Hill up the hill and Thyme Hill has since
emerged as one of the best staying hurdlers this season. Monkfish was only
marking time over hurdles though as this gorgeous horse was destined to be a
chaser. I don’t ever remember seeing a staying novice chaser jump as well as he
did on debut. He took lengths out of the field at every obstacle and won as he
pleased. He has gone on to pick up a couple of Grade 1s since and in particular
last time was awesome at the Dublin Racing Festival. He showed a turn of foot
from the last that surprised me and he looks every bit the potential heir to
the throne. I am looking forward to seeing him fulfil his potential and it is
very hard to see him being beaten.
In terms of opposition, The Big Breakaway did well to finish
so close to Shan Blue in the Feltham as his jumping, particularly in the home
straight, was dreadful. He must improve in that department if he is to get
round here but Kempton would not have suited him. The stable form has been hit
and miss this season though and it is hard to have any degree of confidence in
him. Eklat De Rire is my idea of the main danger as he jumps superbly and beat
Escaria Ten comfortably enough last time. He had Pencilfulloflead back in third
(although he may be better going right-handed) which gives the form some
substance. Despite all that, it is hard to look beyond Monkfish and hopefully
we see a performance of real quality.
2.30 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
As with all big handicaps, I normally like to start the process
by “profiling” the race. That allows me to see what type of horse I am looking
for and helps me develop a shortlist. Of course, that doesn’t mean you rule out
the others altogether and some horses who don’t quite fit the profile will make
the shortlist as they might just appear well-handicapped. Generally though, if
I can’t separate them, I will come down on the side of the horses that fit the
profile best and the angle I like for this race is second-season hurdlers. They
have been responsible for 11 out of the last 16 winners of the race, performing
above expectation in the process. The other angle I like is horses that have
not won more than 1 handicap (like 17 out of the last 20). Basically, you are
looking for lightly-raced horses that have not yet had a chance to show their
hand to the handicapper.
Eventually, I found myself left with three horses that I
found it very hard to split – Grand Roi, Monte Cristo and Craigneiche. Based
purely on price and as a result perceived value, I came down on the side of the
Henderson pair. Monte Cristo is very interesting and could just be the
proverbial Grade 1 horse in a handicap. He will need to be close enough to
prevail off a mark of 145 here but I think there are a number of reasons why he
might just be that. He was last seen running away with a handicap at Kempton
over Christmas. While the form has not looked exceptional, a lot of the horses
in behind have been running well without winning since and he was just simply
miles better than them. That was a huge improvement from his first run of the
season and he is surely open to more improvement again. Craigneiche has
been well supported in recent days and it is easy to see why. He could hardly
have been more impressive at Ascot last time, winning in the proverbial canter.
That was his first run of the season and the majority of horses have improved
from their first run. He is up 12lb (like Monte Cristo) in a better race but he
is very unexposed. His novice hurdle form from last season is notable for his
run behind The Big Breakaway on hurdles debut at Newbury. He certainly was not
disgraced, beaten just over 8 lengths in the end by the eventual Ballymore
fourth. He will certainly be better than 139 in time I am convinced with
inexperience the slight concern. I wouldn’t put anyone off Grand Roi and it was
hard to leave him out but I can’t pick them all!!
3.05 Champion Chase
Chacun Pour Soi is undoubtedly the star attraction here and
the only doubt is his lack of experience here (the stiff uphill finish a main concern).
He has looked unbeatable in Ireland to date. He does everything you want in a
two-mile chaser, jumps brilliantly, travels well and quickens. It all seems
effortless to him. It is hard to see him being beaten. My only slight concern
is that he never seems to hit the line that hard and for that reason I wouldn’t
be getting involved at a short price, particularly here.
His rivals do seem inferior though. I am not sure about Nube
Negra, while he was visually very good at Kempton last time. I think that race
slightly fell apart and feel he is worth taking on in the w/o Chacun market
with the conditions not certain to see him to best effect. Put The Kettle On
brings last season’s Arkle form to the table and I think of the opposition, she
is the one that is the most solid. Arkle winners have a great record in the
race and she loves it around here (3 wins from 3 runs). She hasn’t run since
Christmas which might help as she has an excellent record fresh, and I think
she will give the favourite most to think about. The soft ground and a truly
run race will be perfect for her. Cilaos Emery, stable-mate of the favourite,
is another that may be overpriced. He looked exceptional as a novice and has
Grade 1 winning form over hurdles. He was also fourth in last season’s Champion
Hurdle and he jumped very well last time. If he puts his best foot forward in
the jumping, he looks a bit of each-way value.
3.40 Cross Country Chase
A race that I’m not going to spend much time on and of the
races of the Festival that I love to watch without having a bet. As much as I
would love to see Tiger Roll winning, it is hard to turn back the clock and
last year’s renewal of him toiling behind Easysland is still clear in my
memory. It is hard to see him turning the tables, although I thought his
reappearance run was more promising than it was credited with. He appeared to
travel with a lot of his old zest before tiring in the heavy ground. As he has
been pulled out of the National, this could well be the last hurrah and what a
story it would be. However, it is important to advise devoid of sentiment and
my head says Easysland but I won’t be getting involved at a short price.
4.15 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
I have found this difficult to dissect with a host of horses
in here who I have followed throughout the season. In fact, I think I have
tipped three horses in here to win already this season and they weren’t even in
the final shortlist. Zanza, Sky Pirate and Ibleo have all been progressive
throughout the season but I can’t help feel they may have shown too much of
their hand to win a competitive heat off their current marks. I am going to
take two against the field who I think have excellent prospects, having not
shown their true potential thus far. The feeling persists that Chosen Mate
has been kept for this since he won last year’s renewal in impressive fashion.
He is 9lb higher but that is before you take into account Jordan Gainford’s 7lb
claim and he is full value for that. It is his first ride at the Cheltenham
Festival but it is a name you will be hearing plenty more about in the coming
years (and days hopefully). The form of last year is very strong (although it
was run on the New course) with Greaneteen in fourth going on to finish second
in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek.
I also want a novice on side and Embittered is surely
going to be better than his current mark of 146 over fences. He was an
excellent third to Saint Roi and Aramon in the County Hurdle at the Festival
last year. Saint Roi (who was rated just 137 at the time) has since gone on to
finish second, beaten a neck in a Grade 1 while Aramon won the Galway Hurdle
off a 6lb higher mark. This season, he has been in hot company but has shown
snippets of potential. I like his run behind Andy Dufresne when he was beaten 3
lengths and he shaped promisingly given a conservative ride at the Dublin
Racing Festival last time. I feel this has been the plan for a long time and he
looks sure to go very close.
4.50 Champion Bumper
This is a race I am really looking forward to seeing as I
think it is a brilliant renewal and we will be hearing about Kilcruit and Sir
Gerhard for the next few years. They are too potential superstars among a
quality field with Ramillies and Three Stripe Life also showing a
high level of form in their own right. For that reason it won’t be a betting
race for me as I think the market is just about right. I was blown away by
Kilcruit visually at Leopardstown last time and while subsequent sectional
analysis has shown that the leaders went too hard and fell in a hole, I find it
hard to go against him with that image of a motionless Patrick Mullins cruising
past what I thought was a good field. Sir Gerhard was slightly workmanlike on
his last run when beating Letsbeclearaboutit 4 and ½ lengths (12l behind
Kilcruit, ridden prominently) but prior to that he looked exceptional at Down
Royal. On that occasion, his visual impression was backed up by the clock and
his time compared favourably with Quilixios and Ballyadam. In fact, he came off
much better even allowing for not having to jump hurdles. When I had another
look at that, it slightly swayed me back in his favour, if I was really pushed
to select one. I will be happy to watch what should be a cracking contest.
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