Racing Nerd

There is no doubt that the highlight of the day from a racing point of view is the Clarence House Chase. Politologue is a horse that has grown on me over the past couple of years and his form is becoming increasingly harder to knock. He might be susceptible to a superstar but he is certainly a top quality Grade 1 horse and probably hasn't gotten the credit he deserves. I think he is by far the likeliest winner unless Defi Du Seuil returns to the form he showed last winter when he looked top class at this distance. He really needs to show something tomorrow and hopefully he will come back to something like his best as the two-mile chase division is looking a little bare.  In terms of betting races, there are a few interesting handicaps at Ascot. The handicap hurdle at 1.50 is an interesting contest. Janika is just short of Grade 1 class over fences and is allowed to run off 147 here. Admittedly, he is probably better over fences but he could be thrown in off that mark if ready to go...

This is probably one the quieter weekends of the National Hunt season, with relatively low key cards at Warwick and Market Rasen. Undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend promises to be the clash of Envoi Allen and Asterion Forlonge at Punchestown tomorrow. The 11lb received by Willie Mullins' inmate should make things interesting and we may find out a little more about how good Envoi Allen actually is. I think it could be close given the weight differential and the fact that it is right-handed should see us treated to a real race between two of this season's top novices. Reverting back to today's action for now, the Classic Chase is the highlight at Warwick and I have decided to swerve the race for a bet. I couldn't come down on the side of one. Early in the week, Captain Chaos caught my eye but clearly I wasn't the only one as his price collapsed from the early 16/1 available. He looks well handicapped on his form from this time last season but he does need the bl...

I was delighted to wake up to the news this morning that all three race meetings that had early inspections were deemed raceable and we were going to be treated to a full programme for the day. I had taken a chance on Kempton and focused a lot of my attention on their meeting over the past few days so I was relieved to see that meeting go ahead! The rescheduled Welsh National card adds real depth to the day's schedule and having been initially keen on Lord Du Mesnil, I have decided to give the race a skip and focus on Kempton for my selections. I must admit that Master Tommytucker is a bit of a guilty pleasure of mine. I know I shouldn't like him, he has let me down a few times (usually by falling) and is about as unpredictable as you will get. However, despite falling on his last two visits to Kempton, I actually think he has his ideal conditions today and Imperial Aura is going to have to be very good to give him 6lb. On those two occasions, he was jumping brilliantly and tr...

The Savills Chase at Leopardstown tomorrow is just about as good a staying chase as I can remember. The field has such depth and even those well down the betting list are top quality performers. There is little doubt that the race will impact both the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase markets and we should have a better picture of both races by tomorrow evening. I think Minella Indo is the right favourite and if he wins tomorrow, he will be a strong favourite for the Cheltenham showpiece. However, at the price tomorrow I am inclined to watch and enjoy the race. The depth of the race means I'm not too inclined to have a stab at something at a bigger price, even though I would like to see a lot more from Allaho after advising him for the Ryanair previously. Samcro is very interesting trying this trip for the first time and the ground should be perfect for him - he will have no excuses. Minella Indo is the one that I have liked for the Gold Cup from the start and he is the one I think will w...

When I was a college student, many light moons ago, Christmas was celebrated in a three-day extravaganza that was aptly called "Christmas Daze". It was a few years before we realised that was how it was actually spelled and probably another year before we knew why. It reminds me a little of the Christmas racing period. It is often hard to see the wood from the trees with so much racing and it is all too easy to get caught up in the festive spirit and give freely to the bookmakers. While this year has undoubtedly been tough on them, the advice remains the same... thread carefully. There are four long days to consider and you don't have to have 5 or 6 bets in a day. If you can't enjoy the quality of racing on show in the next few days without having a bet, this probably isn't the right sport for you. Anyway, enough reminiscing and rambling, let's have a look at today's action. I will be treating today as a warm up as such and getting the eye back in after a ...

Tomorrow is the first time in quite a while that I have found myself with a large shortlist - this is always an added concern as not only do you have to get it right in reading the form book, but there is the risk of eliminating a winning selection. In the end, I have gone with two horses that look sure to go very close and coincidentally have similar positives and indeed negatives!!  The Handicap over 2 miles at 1.15 is a cracking contest and there are a couple in here who I have backed recently. Zanza was a winning selection for the column at Newbury recently and should go close again, while Ibleo has a progressive profile over fences. Certainly in terms of the latter, if the ground were to deteriorate he would be a major threat. However, both are up in the weights in a better race and I cannot look beyond Sky Pirate who is surely better than his current mark of 134. There is every chance that this horse will trade at odds-on at some point (so those looking to take a profit coul...

What a race we have in store in the John Durkan at Punchestown tomorrow. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say it might well be the best race we see all year outside of Cheltenham, although that is a controversial topic at the moment. Min has been brilliant the last few years but he faces a lot of young talent on this occasion, some of which have race fitness on their side. Chris's Dream was a painful loser for the blog at Down Royal, having looked like the winner virtually all the way. He has the speed to cope with the drop in trip and they might be able to make more use of his excellent jumping. Gordon Elliott runs two live contenders in Battleoverdoyen and the unpredictable Samcro. Battleoverdoyen was very impressive at Down Royal and early in the season seems to be the time to catch him. I think Samcro might improve for Down Royal as he seemed unusually sluggish there, but perhaps his day might be on Spring ground. Melon seems to save his best efforts for Cheltenham an...