Skip to main content

Cheltenham Antepost #1

What a race we have in store in the John Durkan at Punchestown tomorrow. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say it might well be the best race we see all year outside of Cheltenham, although that is a controversial topic at the moment. Min has been brilliant the last few years but he faces a lot of young talent on this occasion, some of which have race fitness on their side. Chris's Dream was a painful loser for the blog at Down Royal, having looked like the winner virtually all the way. He has the speed to cope with the drop in trip and they might be able to make more use of his excellent jumping. Gordon Elliott runs two live contenders in Battleoverdoyen and the unpredictable Samcro. Battleoverdoyen was very impressive at Down Royal and early in the season seems to be the time to catch him. I think Samcro might improve for Down Royal as he seemed unusually sluggish there, but perhaps his day might be on Spring ground. Melon seems to save his best efforts for Cheltenham and Le Richebourg is worth keeping an eye on returning from a long absence as he looked a brilliant Novice a couple of seasons ago. 


As you may have inferred by now, it is not a race I have a particularly strong view on in terms of the result. However, I am going to suggest my first Ante-post bet of the season just in case the markets change dramatically. Allaho has been knocking on the door of Grade 1 success for a couple of years now and I expect him to make that breakthrough this season. While I don't necessarily think it will be tomorrow, if he does then the odds for the Ryanair will probably halve and it is not a risk I am willing to take. If he is beaten tomorrow, I wouldn't be too concerned as he was beaten on his reappearance by Easy game last year before turning that form around comfortably in March. He ran a cracking race in last season's RSA Chase at the Festival, forcing a strong pace with Minella Indo and only giving way late on. The fact that he was only 6 and it was just his third chase start entitles him to be a better horse this season and I think the Ryanair is tailor-made for him. The Ryanair is often won by horses that race on or close to the pace and I think his jumping combined with his high cruising speed will have plenty of horses out of their comfort zone (just like last year's RSA). It is worth noting that Battleoverdoyen was miles behind him in March and his form ties in with the top second season chasers at this trip. I feel the top three in the RSA were ahead of those that fought out the finish in the Marsh and if that is the case, then the dangers are reduced significantly. I am a major fan of Imperial Aura who will also be suited to the race but he is plenty short enough now on what he has actually achieved to date (I'm not sure about the form of his last win). Min is the reigning champion and probably sets the standard but he will be 10 by the Festival and I tend to avoid older horses at the Festival. Allaho has this as his main target which is always a great help when making an ante-post selection and I am happy to take 10/1 about a horse that ticks a lot of boxes for a race I like. 


1pt win Allaho (10/1) Ryanair Chase (Ante-post rules apply)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Royal Ascot Day 2

What an amazing day of racing we witnessed yesterday, sheer quality from start to finish. Personally, for me the highlight was Baatash winning the Kings Stand and putting the "myth" about Ascot to bed. There was no shame in being beaten by Blue Point a couple of times but he thoroughly deserved a win at the Royal meeting. For a horse that has achieved so much, I wonder if perhaps he doesn't get the credit he deserves? A debate for another day perhaps as today's card has taken quite a lot of time to go through! Again, my initial thought for day two is proceed with caution. There are a host of difficult handicaps with any amount of potentially well-handicapped horses and the Group races on the card offer little respite in terms of difficulty level. Addeybb would be a strong fancy if the rain arrives in time but to back him now would be guessing. The trendy horse for the day is clearly Ranch Hand for the concluding handicap at 4.40. I don't pay too much attention to ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Irish Grand National Day

The Irish Grand National is the highlight of day three and indeed the entire weekend of the Easter Festival and as one would expect it looks a very competitive affair. More thoughts on that later but the two Grade 2s preceding the big race caught my eye from a betting point of view. They both had short enough favourites that I thought were beatable with a relatively small field and a couple of standout dangers to choose from.  The withdrawal of Beacon Edge has meant that the price of French Dynamite is now much shorter than it was previously in the Grade 2 hurdle at 3.50 and for that reason I am (just about) willing to let him run. The Bosses Oscar is now the clear favourite and perhaps justifiably so, but I think the price difference between the two is too big. French Dynamite has his ideal conditions here and he has run to a very high level when getting his optimum conditions in the past. He actually beat the The Bosses Oscar at Thurles last year and while there is a 7lb swing in...
Post a Comment
Read more

Arc Day at Parislongchamp

 While we may be more familiar with Irish and UK classics from a geographical point of view, the Arc is the best flat race in the world from a ratings perspective. The fact that we have what has been widely touted as the best Arc in a long time tells you all you need to know about the quality of today's field. From the moment she crossed the line in second in the Irish Champion Stakes I felt Tarnawa would win and nothing since has changed my mind, even though I am not as definitive as I was then. She has a good draw and should cope with conditions. The problem is that while she is in a stall that you want to be in, she will require luck in running and it is a large field of horses to get through, enhancing the possibility of traffic problems.  I think the winner will come from one of those at the top of the market and the two Godolphin representatives head those along with Snowfall. The draw and the conditions have brought Hurricane Lane right into it and he has replaced Tarna...
Post a Comment
Read more