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Cheltenham Antepost #1

What a race we have in store in the John Durkan at Punchestown tomorrow. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say it might well be the best race we see all year outside of Cheltenham, although that is a controversial topic at the moment. Min has been brilliant the last few years but he faces a lot of young talent on this occasion, some of which have race fitness on their side. Chris's Dream was a painful loser for the blog at Down Royal, having looked like the winner virtually all the way. He has the speed to cope with the drop in trip and they might be able to make more use of his excellent jumping. Gordon Elliott runs two live contenders in Battleoverdoyen and the unpredictable Samcro. Battleoverdoyen was very impressive at Down Royal and early in the season seems to be the time to catch him. I think Samcro might improve for Down Royal as he seemed unusually sluggish there, but perhaps his day might be on Spring ground. Melon seems to save his best efforts for Cheltenham and Le Richebourg is worth keeping an eye on returning from a long absence as he looked a brilliant Novice a couple of seasons ago. 


As you may have inferred by now, it is not a race I have a particularly strong view on in terms of the result. However, I am going to suggest my first Ante-post bet of the season just in case the markets change dramatically. Allaho has been knocking on the door of Grade 1 success for a couple of years now and I expect him to make that breakthrough this season. While I don't necessarily think it will be tomorrow, if he does then the odds for the Ryanair will probably halve and it is not a risk I am willing to take. If he is beaten tomorrow, I wouldn't be too concerned as he was beaten on his reappearance by Easy game last year before turning that form around comfortably in March. He ran a cracking race in last season's RSA Chase at the Festival, forcing a strong pace with Minella Indo and only giving way late on. The fact that he was only 6 and it was just his third chase start entitles him to be a better horse this season and I think the Ryanair is tailor-made for him. The Ryanair is often won by horses that race on or close to the pace and I think his jumping combined with his high cruising speed will have plenty of horses out of their comfort zone (just like last year's RSA). It is worth noting that Battleoverdoyen was miles behind him in March and his form ties in with the top second season chasers at this trip. I feel the top three in the RSA were ahead of those that fought out the finish in the Marsh and if that is the case, then the dangers are reduced significantly. I am a major fan of Imperial Aura who will also be suited to the race but he is plenty short enough now on what he has actually achieved to date (I'm not sure about the form of his last win). Min is the reigning champion and probably sets the standard but he will be 10 by the Festival and I tend to avoid older horses at the Festival. Allaho has this as his main target which is always a great help when making an ante-post selection and I am happy to take 10/1 about a horse that ticks a lot of boxes for a race I like. 


1pt win Allaho (10/1) Ryanair Chase (Ante-post rules apply)

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