When I was a college student, many light moons ago, Christmas was celebrated in a three-day extravaganza that was aptly called "Christmas Daze". It was a few years before we realised that was how it was actually spelled and probably another year before we knew why. It reminds me a little of the Christmas racing period. It is often hard to see the wood from the trees with so much racing and it is all too easy to get caught up in the festive spirit and give freely to the bookmakers. While this year has undoubtedly been tough on them, the advice remains the same... thread carefully. There are four long days to consider and you don't have to have 5 or 6 bets in a day. If you can't enjoy the quality of racing on show in the next few days without having a bet, this probably isn't the right sport for you. Anyway, enough reminiscing and rambling, let's have a look at today's action.
I will be treating today as a warm up as such and getting the eye back in after a short break. In that regard, I have kept it relatively simple and gone with pure instinct for my first selection. When Clan Des Obeaux crossed the line in last year's King George, I decided he would win the 2020 renewal. However, taking 5/2 and waiting 12 months was never a realistic option and the hope was that he would be a bigger price after the Gold Cup. He disappointed (not the first time) at Cheltenham and he was suddenly a 6/1 chance for the same race. To my mind, nothing had changed from December to March and I was still convinced he would be the one to beat on the annual Stephens Day showpiece. I started nibbling away (to small stakes) then and throughout the lockdown at various prices and all the time convincing myself that I was never surer of anything. I may have over invested as a few of my Cheltenham ante-post multiples will go down today too if he is beaten.
Interestingly, the only negative is the doubt about possibly how good his prep was. To explain, I thought he ran a stormer behind Bristol De Mai who had his optimum conditions at his beloved Haydock. I would have preferred if Clan had a slightly easier prep race but I thought Sam Twiston Davies wasn't overly hard on him and he didn't finish totally legless, possibly coming back again just as they hit the line. There is no way of knowing what mark that will have left on him until today, but he is edging back towards the price he was for this race 12 months ago and that seems just about value to me. Yes those against him will say the race fell apart (which it did to some extent) but he has won two King Georges in different ways and has the speed to cope if they don't go that quick.
Of his rivals, Cyrname is the biggest danger. The question with him is did he underperform last year or did he simply just not get home? Those in his camp reckon he wasn't right last season after slaying Altior and that could be true. However, he has yet to win a Grade 1 at 3 miles and until he goes and does it, the doubts will remain. I thought there was no evidence from the Charlie Hall that he truly stays 3 miles. It was a slowly run race and one would love to have seen him quicken away at the death rather than being held on to. The question remains... what was left? I feel there wasn't a whole pile but perhaps that is a result of my opinion that he didn't get home at Kempton 12 months ago. While it isn't just a two hors race, I would be surprised if one of them didn't emerge victorious. Santini has the potential to run on but this ground may not allow it to be enough of a test for him to be really involved and Lostintranslation is on a retrieval mission. The ground could be the key to him and if there is an upset, he is the most likely but it is hard to have any confidence in him and select him based on two of his last three runs. Either way, I cannot change my mind again and desert Clan Des Obeaux like I did painfully 12 months ago. I have waited 12 months for my compensation and hopefully Sam T delivers my present.
The other action is brilliant in terms of quality but with many short priced favourites that look solid I am happy to sit back and enjoy the day. In particular, the Novice Chases feature a host of exciting potential stars and it will be interesting to see if any young horse can lay down a challenge to the respective standard bearers in each of the three divisions. Whatever else, enjoy the day and the quality fare that we are lucky to be able to watch, albeit disappointing that we are unable to attend.
2pts win Clan Des Obeaux (5/2 Unibet, BetVictor 9/4 General) Kempton 3.00 *use BOG firms
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