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December 12th

Tomorrow is the first time in quite a while that I have found myself with a large shortlist - this is always an added concern as not only do you have to get it right in reading the form book, but there is the risk of eliminating a winning selection. In the end, I have gone with two horses that look sure to go very close and coincidentally have similar positives and indeed negatives!! 

The Handicap over 2 miles at 1.15 is a cracking contest and there are a couple in here who I have backed recently. Zanza was a winning selection for the column at Newbury recently and should go close again, while Ibleo has a progressive profile over fences. Certainly in terms of the latter, if the ground were to deteriorate he would be a major threat. However, both are up in the weights in a better race and I cannot look beyond Sky Pirate who is surely better than his current mark of 134. There is every chance that this horse will trade at odds-on at some point (so those looking to take a profit could consider that angle) but I am hoping that the drop in trip might help Jonjo O'Neill's charge gain a deserved win. He looked like the winner (yet again) in the Paddy Power coming down the hill but weakened late on, which has been a comment applied to many of his recent runs. In a competitive contest, he just about rates as value at around 7/2. 

Up at Doncaster, another horse likely to trade well shorter than his SP in running is Singlefarmpayment in the handicap chase at 3.15. Although he hasn't won in 4 years, he has gone agonisingly close a number of times in top handicaps and should hopefully appreciate the drop in grade and his current mark of 137 could be crucial in gaining that elusive win. It was this weekend four years ago that he last won (at Cheltenham) and this time of year clearly suits him very well. He was beaten a head by Cogry two years ago (off 146) at the Cheltenham meeting and last year was fourth to the same horse in the corresponding race (off 140). Perhaps that indicates he is regressing but he showed plenty of promise on his return this season at Sandown and has been generously dropped 2lb for that effort. That was particularly noteworthy given that he is rarely at his best after a break and seems to improve dramatically from his first fun to his second (partly behind his good record on this weekend). 


1pt win Sky Pirate (10/3 General) Cheltenham 1.15

1pt win Singlefarmpayment (13/2 General) Doncaster 3.15

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