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Saturday 23rd January

There is no doubt that the highlight of the day from a racing point of view is the Clarence House Chase. Politologue is a horse that has grown on me over the past couple of years and his form is becoming increasingly harder to knock. He might be susceptible to a superstar but he is certainly a top quality Grade 1 horse and probably hasn't gotten the credit he deserves. I think he is by far the likeliest winner unless Defi Du Seuil returns to the form he showed last winter when he looked top class at this distance. He really needs to show something tomorrow and hopefully he will come back to something like his best as the two-mile chase division is looking a little bare. 

In terms of betting races, there are a few interesting handicaps at Ascot. The handicap hurdle at 1.50 is an interesting contest. Janika is just short of Grade 1 class over fences and is allowed to run off 147 here. Admittedly, he is probably better over fences but he could be thrown in off that mark if ready to go off a break (has won off a break before). However, the juice is gone on his price and I'm happy to let him go in this ground carrying a big weight. Paddys Motorbike was another in the race that I had a long look at from the other end of the weights. He takes a big step up in class but has been winning impressively and Will Sting gave his latest win a nice boost last weekend. I considered taking the two against the field as I think they are the likelier ones but the prices didn't allow it (at least not when I got around to writing this). 

I will have to suggest an interest in Windsor Avenue in the handicap chase at 3.00 in the hope that tomorrow is finally the day he puts it all together. It is nearing last chance saloon for this horse who is surely better than a mark of 147. However, the more chances that are spurned, the more evidence there is that perhaps he is not. I am prepared to give him one more chance and possibly the theory that he might be slightly better going this way round. His comeback run this season when second to Imperial Aura (albeit in receipt of 4lb) would surely be good enough to win a race of this nature but he needs to go and do it. Having disappointed at Cheltenham after that, I thought he ran well at Wetherby and was probably undone by the trip. He should have his ideal conditions here with 2m 5f on soft ground perfect for him. His form figures on right handed tracks reads 1212 and the last three of those are arguably three of his better career runs. Brian Hughes is riding at the top of his game so I can't find any reason why he should not give a bold show. I will be disappointed if he doesn't at least hit the frame in a race that possibly lacks depth.


0.5pt eway Windsor Avenue (9/1 General) Ascot 3.00 *use BOG firms, (Paddy Power, Skybet, William Hill paying 5 places) 

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