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Irish Grand National Day

The Irish Grand National is the highlight of day three and indeed the entire weekend of the Easter Festival and as one would expect it looks a very competitive affair. More thoughts on that later but the two Grade 2s preceding the big race caught my eye from a betting point of view. They both had short enough favourites that I thought were beatable with a relatively small field and a couple of standout dangers to choose from. 

The withdrawal of Beacon Edge has meant that the price of French Dynamite is now much shorter than it was previously in the Grade 2 hurdle at 3.50 and for that reason I am (just about) willing to let him run. The Bosses Oscar is now the clear favourite and perhaps justifiably so, but I think the price difference between the two is too big. French Dynamite has his ideal conditions here and he has run to a very high level when getting his optimum conditions in the past. He actually beat the The Bosses Oscar at Thurles last year and while there is a 7lb swing in the weights, it could be closer than the betting today suggests. French Dynamite has the added advantage of having missed Cheltenham. In a race that looks like a match, Rachael Blackmore's mount was tempting but I opted instead to take a little insurance with my other fancy of the day.

Easy Game looks the main danger to Fakir Doudairies, along with Battleoverdoyen who is slightly less reliable. The key to Battleoverdoyen seems to be when fresh so the break should help but it might not be enough and first time up appears to be the best time to catch him. I was keen to take on Fakir Doudairies, not just because of his price, which I feel is way too short, but also coming from such a hard race at Cheltenham. The Ryanair was like an equine war zone at the end as a result of the searching gallop set by Allaho and horses finished very tired. The selection has an excellent record given today's ground and trip. In fact, he has only finished out of the first three once over this sort of trip on goodish ground and that was over hurdles in a Punchestown Grade 1. Over fences, he has a string of quality efforts at 2 and a half miles (or around it) including a defeat of the aforementioned Allaho at Leopardstown and a close second to Faugheen there in the Flogas. This season, he beat The Storyteller at Gowran before finishing second to the re-opposing Battleoverdoyen who was having his first run of the season. He was sent off the 10/11 favourite on that occasion and I think we are getting a big price here after a couple of average efforts in conditions that were not to suit. He jumped poorly behind Allaho last time but that horse takes others out of their comfort zone and I would like to see him ridden prominenty today. It was close between the two market rivals to the favourite but Easy Game looks a bet to nothing granted a clear round and he is the selection. 

In the Irish Grand National, I had a rather large shortlist in the end and was unable to whittle it down to recommend a bet. Latest Exhibition looks really solid and while he may not beat something that is very well-handicapped, it is hard to see him out of the frame. He would have to run to a mark in the mid 160's though or close enough to win and he has been firmly put in his place by a novice, admittedly a potential superstar, already this season. His price reflects the solidity about him and I was keen to look for an alternative. When I did, I found plenty that one could make a case for, in particular the form line of the handicap over course and distance earlier in the season won by Court Maid. She was of interest, as was the second, Brace Yourself, who travelled ominously well on that occasion. The Thyestes form was of interest too as the first two home on that occasion both looked ahead of the handicapper. As you can probably gather at this point, I wasn't keen enough on anything to suggest a bet. If you nailed me for one, it might just be Court Maid, although not obviously well handicapped, she looks a real stayer and these marathon races can take a life of their own from a ratings perspective. On form from earlier in the season, she will find it hard to beat the favourite on these terms and I passed for that reason. 


0.5pt win Easy Game (9/2 General) Fairyhouse 4.20 *Use BOG firms



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