From the outset this week, I thought today was the toughest card in terms of finding value. My natural tendency is to look for races where I believe those at the head of the market are vulnerable. The highlights on Day 2 of Royal Ascot feature a number of races where this may not be the case. Starting with the return of Love in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. Based on what he saw from her last season, she is certainly not one I want to be taking on and when you throw Lord North (*now a non-runner) into the mix, it is a huge ask to find something to get them both beat. Armory might just do that but I expected him to be a slightly bigger price than what is currently available so I will take a watching brief. That is not to say I am not looking forward to this though as I simply can't wait to see last season's superstar filly in action once again. One is left with the feeling that we never got to see how good she might be last season, albeit she comfortably beat anything put in front of her. That will not be the case this year and while a defeat tomorrow would not be the end of the world, we might just know more about her ceiling later this year. The wet Autumn means we haven't seen her since last August and I am sure she will improve plenty for her first run back. It promises to be a fascinating contest with an intriguing tactical battle potentially as well. Sit back and enjoy.
The preceding contest, the Duke of Cambridge, is another of those contests with a rather solid-looking market leader, Lady Bowthorpe, who has returned better than ever this season. On her seasonal reappearance she just shaded the re-opposing Queen Power before chasing home Palace Pier in the Lockinge. That was a high class effort and sets a very high standard in the context of this race. Lavender's Blue might be the value of those at bigger odds but there are other more appealing bets on the card. Her form figure on good to firm are 113, the third when beaten just half a length by Lady Bowthorpe in the aforementioned Newmarket race. Parents Prayer looks progressive too but may face competition for the lead this time. As you can probably guess at this point, it is not a race I have an overly strong view on. We will move on.
It is a big day for Wesley Ward who saddles the two market leaders in the Queen Mary and the Windsor Castle. The 5 furlong races on quick ground have very much been an integral part of his success at previous Royal Ascot festivals. Given his record in that bracket here, I am not overly keen on taking either of those on. However, I cannot resist a (very) small interest in the Clive Cox trained Get Ahead with many firms offering excellent place terms. I was very taken with her debut here at Ascot when she overcame obvious inexperience to win impressively. On that occasion she was one of the first off the bridle but picked up really well when the penny dropped inside the final furlong to win going away. The form has worked out reasonably well too with the third, sixth and eighth all winning since. I know people may suggest that the third was unlucky that day but Get Ahead was very green herself. Her trainer Clive Cox has an excellent record in this race of recent with form figures of 613 in the last five years (the third only beaten a pair of short heads). Incidentally, his winner of the race, Heartache, coming for the same owners in 2017. The ground is an unknown, while the draw may not be favourable so it is a minimum play here but one I felt I didn't want to let go without an interest on a day when few stood out to me.
I have decided to tackle the devilishly difficult Hunt Cup and believe Haqeeqy can get his career back on track after a slight blip last time. Starting with the draw and while it is hard to be definitive, I would be favouring those drawn middle to high based on the evidence from Tuesday but also where the pace is likely to come from. Haqeeqy will love a strong pace which looks very likely and he could just be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap (which he will need to be off his mark of 107). He certainly looked like a potential Group horse when winning the Lincoln impressively on his reappearance. On that occasion, he travelled ominously well throughout and cut through the field in the manner of a very good horse. The form has worked out quite well, particularly when you consider how dominant he was over his rivals. He was disappointing on the face of it last time here in a Listed contest but that performance may have been underestimated. The steady pace would not have suited him and the form has worked out well. The winner took the Group 3 at Epsom on Derby Day while the third Sir Busker filled the same place behind Palace Pier yesterday. Haqeeqy was just a neck behind him in fourth with subsequent Listed winner Solid Stone (also third here yesterday) a half length further back. He did get a 7lb hike for the Lincoln success, as well as not having the value 7lb claim from his jockey on that occasion but he does have Jim Crowley's assistance who has a brilliant record in the big-field handicaps on the straight course at this meeting. I think he has a solid each-way chance and granted a bit of luck in running, which you invariably need on a hold-up horse in the circumstances, he should go very close.
0.25pt eway Get Ahead (14/1 General) Royal Ascot 2.30 *use firms paying 5 places
1pt win Haqeeqy (7/1 General) Royal Ascot 5.00
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 94 points
Total Returned: 139.3 points
Total Profit: 45.3 points
Comments
Post a Comment