Just like that, Royal Ascot 2021 is upon us. A little over a week ago we were dissecting the Derby and Oaks and now the flat juggernaut rolls on to the biggest week of the year. What a week it promises to be and there is certainly no better venue to have greater crowds in attendance than this one. The week has so much potential from a storywriter's point of view but undoubtedly the plot of the week is Stradivarius' attempt at history. I (barely) remember Yeats' historic achievement and my heart will be firmly in the camp of the potential history maker on Thursday afternoon. These stories bring the sport into the spotlight and can only be a positive in attracting a wider audience.
Getting back to the action at hand on Tuesday and it is a card stacked in quality. One of the real standout points for me on Tuesday is the number of runners in the Group 1 races, certainly not in keeping with recent trends, where the Queen Anne has the smallest field of the day, albeit still reaching double figures. There are a couple of strong fancies, in particular in the aforementioned Queen Anne where Palace Pier faces ten opponents, while Battaash faces a big field in his bid to retain his King's Stand crown. I don't have an overly strong opinion in either of those contests to be honest. Palace Pier is a clear standout on form and those behind him in the market are of a similar level, albeit at varying intervals. Good luck if odds on punting is your thing but on the opening race of a long week, I am happy enough to sit this one out. I would be shocked if Palace Pier doesn't fill one of the places so the each-way terms are hardly appealing. No bet.
In relation to the Kings Stand, Battaash is the one they all have to beat even though he is making his belatedly having his first run since last August at York. He has a perfect record on his seasonal reappearance though and they would not be running him unless they were entirely happy with him. Age is possibly the biggest potential stumbling block and he is now seven, one has to wonder if he will be as good as he was last year. The main danger according to the market is Winter Power and I tend to agree with this view. She is certainly deserving of a chance at the top level based on what he have seen to date. I was really impressed by what I saw at York on her first run this season. The 3-year-old filly had that Listed contest in the bag a long way out, with the second franking the form when taking a Listed success of her own at Sandown on Saturday. I just thought there might be a little more juice in her price and for that reason I am willing to tentatively pass, for now anyway. The Coventry is really not my type of contest, although I will have an interest in the Clive Cox angle I mentioned as part of my Royal Ascot preview for Attheraces. He is represented by Caturra who is hard to fancy on bare form but might just outrun his odds like so many sprinters from the stable do here, particularly the 2-year-olds.
One I am not going to pass over though is Chindit in the St James' Palace Stakes as I think he rates a good bet at the current odds. I will be more than a little surprised if this horse does not finish in the frame at least as I expect him to go very close if not win this Group 1 contest. He comes here with an excellent record of four wins from six career starts but that only tells half the story. The two defeats have both come at Newmarket and he has looked rather uncomfortable on the undulations of headquarters on both occasions. He handled it a little better in the Guineas than he did in the Dewhurst admittedly but still got slightly unbalanced in the dip and by the time he had gathered himself the race was over, running on for fifth but the clear eyecatcher of the race from my point of view. He also had to change his course and the race developed away from him with the first three home all challenging from the other side of the field. He gained on the leaders once he met the rising ground and I think Ascot will play to his strengths a lot more (impressive winner on his only previous run here). He will need to settle better as he was quite keen in the early part of the race at Newmarket and I would like to see him not given quite as much to do. If Pat Dobbs was able to get cover in midfield, I think he has a potent turn of foot to be delivered. Poetic Flare is the right favourite and the most likely winner. In fact, I thought he might be a point or so shorter. He has won the English Guineas and gone within a nose of doubling up in the Irish equivalent. You can ignore his run in France and having been freshened up since the Irish Guineas he will be a tough nut to crack. However at two and a half times the price, I felt Chindit was better value and would have him a bet at anything around 6/1 or above.
There are two staying handicaps on the card and I must admit I found the Ascot Stakes very difficult to figure out. There are a number of horses coming here off the jumps and it is hard to quantify how much they may have improved since they last appeared on the flat. Coeur De Lion was a winner of the race last year for the blog but find it more difficult this year., particularly on the quicker ground. The Irish were not allowed compete in 2020 and Willie Mullins runs three this time around in an effort to make up for that. To add further difficulty, Emmet Mullins sends a raider that will have the aid of Rachael Blackmore having her first Royal Ascot ride. I just found it a hard race to get a handle on with a host of unknown quantities. The other is a different matter and I am going back to my old friend Alan King with his November Handicap winner On To Victory. The form of that win has worked out quite well too with the third, fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth all winning since. He is just 5lb higher than when winning that rather comfortably and still looks progressive on the flat, despite being a seven-year-old. He warmed up for this with an excellent second to Hukum at Goodwood over 1m 4f, with higher-rated rivals in behind giving substance to that form. I think he could improve further for the return to this trip having shown promise at staying trips for Eve Johnson Houghton earlier in his career. Since moving to Alan King, he has only tried this trip once on turf when finishing a neck second to Stargazer at Haydock, off a mark of 99, prior to winning at Doncaster. The ground has been mentioned as a slight concern but he has had some excellent efforts on good and good-to-firm without winning. His draw widest of all might be viewed as a negative but the first four home last year came from stalls 16,9,19,14 (although there is a short run to the bend). I will trust Tom Marquand to tuck in to a nice position and he has the luxury of being patient on a horse that likes to be held up and come through horses. Saldier and Global Storm head the market and while both could potentially be handicap blots, they hold a fair chunk of the market. Saldier has to back up pretty quickly on good ground and consistency has hardly been his forte. He wouldn't be for me at the prices and while he might make me look foolish, I am happy to play each-way against him.
Felix was available at bigger odds earlier in the day but I would have him challenging for favouritism for the Wolferton. His third to Lord North in Meydan is the standout piece of form on offer, given his close proximity to the winner. He was almost a third bet but the value has gone on him and I am happy to let him run at this point, although I certainly wouldn't put anyone off him.
0.5pt win Chindit (9/1 Boylesports, Bet Victor, 17/2 General) Royal Ascot 4.20
0.5pt eway On To Victory (12/1 PaddyPower, Betfair, William Hill) Royal Ascot 6.10 *5 places
Current P/L since June 2020:
Total Staked: 92.5 points
Total Returned: 138.3 points
Total Profit: 45.8 points
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