Epsom Derby Day

 We saw a performance of the highest quality from Snowfall in the Oaks yesterday. People are knocking the form and all sorts but the facts are that she won a classic by 16 lengths in a good time with eye-catching closing sectionals.  It is hard to argue with either of those aspects and say what you like about those in behind but her superiority was there for all to see. Of course they may not be world-beaters but if they were, Snowfall would have to be from a different universe. The camera shots of her lengthening away will live long in the memory and she has marked herself down as a top quality middle-distance filly for the Classic generation. Pyledriver was a popular winner of the Coronation Cup despite looked rather uncomfortable on the track. George Boughey continued his sensational stable form winning the Woodcote in fine style with Oscula.

Moving on to Derby Day and there is a quality supporting card first and foremost. I was very keen on Statement at around 7/2 and was an initial selection when I started this piece but procrastination as well as a couple of non runners have seen the price disappear. However, we are still getting just about the same odds when rule 4's are factored in and there are two less rivals to beat. Three-year-old's have a good recent record in the race, winning three of the last six renewals (although it was quite poor before that) and the top three in the market have been responsible for nine of the last twelve winners. Her two main market rivals (one has since come out) have yet to win on anything softer than good and while it may dry out somewhat, it is unlikely to be good ground come 2.35 tomorrow. The ground should be fine for her regardless as she has won on heavy and put up her best performance to date on good ground. That effort was a short head second in the Fred Darling at Newbury over seven furlongs on her seasonal reappearance. The form has been hit and miss but the fourth Primo Bacio won a Listed contest impressively at York on her next start. In addition, the tenth and thirteenth won at Listed level too. Statement was unable to do her bit for the form when a slightly disappointing eighth in the 1000 Guineas but she was only beaten six lengths. She meets nothing of genuine Group 1 quality here and while she may be slightly off the top Group 1 fillies, she is possibly a class above this opposition. 

I had a long look at the 1m 4f handicap that takes place after the main event and firmly had three horses in mind. However, on softer ground, it became just two, as Soto Sizzler has done all his best work on proper good ground. The two I came down on were Midnight's Legacy and Group One Power and I was surprised by the price differential in the two. Alan King's form figures on the flat for June read 32161 and this horse was a real eyecatcher at Salisbury last time over a trip that just stretches his stamina. Held up in a race that it benefitted those prominent, he came with a good run only for it to fizzle out late on over 1m 6f, hanging on ground that may have been on the quick side for him. He was the only one of the first four to be held up and another horse held up, Ispahan, won impressively since despite only finishing fifth at Salisbury. Hopefully Group One Power will go as hard as he did at Ascot last time and it will give Midnight's Legacy a real strong pace to aim at. He has been raised 1lb for that Salisbury effort, but he is only 4lb higher than the second of his two wins last June. Incidentally, it is his first time at this trip on turf since and they may well be his optimum conditions. 

While the Derby is obviously the highlight of the day, I don't really have a strong view on the race. The 3-year-old colts have been rather hard to analyse. The favourite is obviously the one they all have to beat and I have him as the most likely winner (hardly inspiring). However, his form is nothing to write about and it is based purely on potential and the style of his performances rather than rock solid substance (albeit his time in the Derrinstown was good). MacSwiney was reportedly not right at Leopardstown and aside from him, there is not much to rank that form above what the others have achieved. It was however, the manner he did it that was most impressive, putting the race to bed in a matter of strides, not too dissimilar to Snowfall here yesterday. Mac Swiney has been in my head for the race even befoe his Guineas win and he brings genuine Group 1 form to the table (admittedly over a mile). That is something that the hot favourite is yet to do. The softer conditions, while it looks like it will help him based on his previous form, could raise a major question regarding his stamina as he certainly didn't look slow at the Curragh. If anything, the Curragh run, slightly tempered my enthusiasm as I had him down as a real stayer prior to that. Mohaafeth will want the ground to dry out, but I must admit to coming around to him before Friday's downpour. I couldn't suggest backing him at this point as he looks a real good ground horse but if it did appear goodish ground in the earlier races, then that is a different story. Hurricane Lane has attracted good support in the last 24 hours and was a good winner of the Dante so has at least won his trial. He looks very likely to run his race and I believe that was the main reason for the support behind him. He might just find one or two too good though. John Leeper has been a major talking horse for obvious reasons but he didn't strike me as an Epsom horse last time and I wonder if he has enough experience, for all that he has plenty of ability. He looks like a bit of  a baby to me still and Epsom is not a place for horses that have not matured. One Ruler is possibly the one that is overpriced as I write this. He plugged on in the Guineas considering all his best form at two was with cut in the ground. He looks sure to come on for that and I would be fairly confident he will get this trip. Similar comments apply to Gear Up, although he may need to improve a lot more from his seasonal reappearance in the Dante. Overall, it is a Derby I am happy to watch, at least at this juncture, with additional unknowns regarding the ground on top of everything else. If I was really pushed for a selection (although thankfully that's not how this works), it would probably be One Ruler each way at the current prices. That may change such is my indecisive view on the race and as mentioned I won't be having a bet in the race as things stand so I certainly won't suggest one for someone else to back. 

1 pt win Statement (9/4 Boylesports, Hills, Bet365, 2/1 General) Epsom 2.35 *BOG

0.5pt win Midnights Legacy (7/1 General) Epsom 5.15 *BOG