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Saturday April 3rd

We have an action packed weekend of racing ahead, typical of this time of year, with the National Hunt season edging towards the final few weeks and the flat just starting. I have remained focused on the jumps racing for the past few weeks and usually find Guineas weekend as the point when I fully adjust to finding suitable flat selections. The flat poses a different set of variables, with draw replacing ability to jump obstacles and an increased emphasis on the predicted pace and where it may come from. 

Having said that, my resistance was broken when I saw a personal favourite of mine Muntadab priced up at tempting odds at Musselburgh (1.50). While he was originally 20/1 (at least), I still think there is plenty of value in his current odds. He was a winner for us at Epsom on Derby weekend last summer and is 7lb lower tomorrow after a mixed campaign following that win. There are plenty more positives though as his record at Musselburgh is very promising too with a win and two seconds here off higher marks in the past. He was actually a nose second here prior to his Epsom win last July off a mark of 87. He did disappoint here last October but his form tailed off at the end of last season as already mentioned, so I think that can be easily excused. He hardly set the world alight on his return at Southwell but he always needs at least a run so I think that can be easily ignored and it wasn't without some encouragement. In fact, it may still be a run too soon (if he runs well I'd be keeping an eye out for him again) but the odds on offer compensate for that. The reason he was put up at Epsom is because the 7f track there suits front runners and it is a similar story around Musselburgh. The issue is that he may face competition for the lead but he did at Epsom too on his last win and was able to fend them all off. His low draw should help him get on the favoured rail and he is worth a small investment to start our flat season with a bang. 

Reverting to the jumps action and there is a a very competitive card at Fairyhouse to kick off the Easter Festival. Eclair De Beaufeu is starting to become a little bit of a cliff horse but as he invariably hits the frame at an each-way price, I can't help but sticking with him. While today's price is much shorter than he has been of recent, he looks to have an outstanding chance again in the handicap hurdle at 4.05 if fully over his Cheltenham exertions. You could argue (particularly if you backed him) that he was slightly unlucky in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, not getting the clearest of runs and while he may not have won, he would certainly have been very close if not running into trouble on a couple of occasions. He is a pound lower here and has the benefit of Jordan Gainford's excellent 7lb allowance which brings him to a very good mark. 

It is open to debate again, but I thought he was going to win here in November when falling two from home in the handicap won easily by Advanced Virgo, or at the very least finished a good second. That was looking like an exceptional effort given he made a number of jumping errors throughout. Drop The Anchor, a well beaten third won the 2m handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival off 2lb higher on his next start. On that occasion Eclair De Beaufeu was off 135 so there is plenty of evidence to suggest 138 is well within his compass here and the ground should suit so if there is to be a day he gets his head in front this season, it will surely be today. He is incredibly consistent and his only poor effort when completing was after a couple of falls this season when I am sure the priority was to get round at Leopardstown over Christmas. In fact, every other time he has completed, he has finished in the first 6 so I was inclined to take the place insurance initially, before the 9/2 and 4/1 disappeared. I still think he is just about value at the current price and if he repeats his Cheltenham run he should win granted reasonable luck in running. Therefore, I recommend a small win bet.


 0.5pt win Muntadab (12/1 General) Musselburgh 1.50 *Use BOG firms


0.5pt win Eclair De Beaufeu (7/2 General) Fairyhouse 4.05 *Use BOG firms


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