The first of three fabulous days at Aintree takes place tomorrow with the racing having an extremely competitive look to it. Much has been made of the Irish domination in the aftermath of Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see if Ireland can be as competitive with a smaller team and many of the big names waiting for Punchestown. My first impression is that tomorrow is the most difficult day for betting opportunities, certainly in terms of value.
The opening Novice Chase is a sign of the competitive feel throughout the day, with 10lb officially separating the field and I have it even tighter than that. Marginal preference would be for Hitman but it is not a race I have a strong opinion on. The 4-year-old hurdle looks a match and they look priced up right to me. Similar comments apply to the Mares bumper, although I am looking forward to seeing Eileendover again as I think she could be a potential star of the future. The Aintree hurdle over two and a half miles is a race I normally like but this year looks a very difficult race to analyse with any degree of confidence. I was with Abacadabras at Cheltenham and his fall was disappointing given how the Supreme form faired through the week. I have never had him down as a horse that wants a trip though, while he comes here off the back of a fall and the stable could be in better form. Jason The Militant has the least questions to answer but probably the biggest one of all - is he good enough to win a Grade 1? There seems to be plenty of pace on and that was enough to swerve him and the price has gone too. While he is the most solid, I can't say he is a bet at around 3/1. I didn't like McFabulous' attitude at Fontwell last time, perhaps it was the track that just didn't suit but I'd like to see him running before putting my hard earned on him again. That doesn't leave much left and I am happy to give this a skip.
The Foxhunters races don't set my pulses racing in general but old boy Sametegal is very interesting over the National fences at 4.05. He actually beat the Foxhunters winner at the festival at Wincanton in February and has kept really good company in competitive handicaps. He hasn't been disgraced either with some creditable efforts off marks generally around 140. The value has gone now though, particularly for a horse that has a lot of placed efforts but not too many winning ones. I thought the Red Rum handicap chase is full of horses with live chances. On The Slopes will love the flat two miles around here as his Kempton form suggests and I am convinced there is a big pot in him at some point. Moon Over Germany looks like a bit of a plot and Zanza was never going at Cheltenham but could benefit as a result. Destrier looks very well handicapped on his best form for the red-hot Skelton team so as you can see by now, there's too many I could make a case for so... I'm out!
I was going to hold fire until Friday but I can't let Native River go in the Bowl at a price that I think is just too big now. You are probably all saying "What about the ground?" right now but let me finish. Yes he certainly would prefer softer conditions but he is not a bad horse on goodish ground either. In fact you could argue that his form on good/ good to soft is as good as anything else in here. He won the Grade 2 Denman at Newbury last year on good ground with Secret Investor snugly beaten in second, in receipt of 3lb. Secret Investor subsequently won this year's renewal of the same race from Clan Des Obeaux, who lines up as favourite here. He also finished third in a Gold Cup, beaten less than three lengths on good ground for what it's worth.
Admittedly Colin Tizzard's horse did have a hard race in the Gold Cup just twenty days ago, when a well-beaten fourth on that occasion having struggled throughout. He doesn't really look the same horse in behind though and the lack of pace here is a huge positive as I think he might get an easy time of it in front. There is a good chance he might have recovered from those exertions as he has precedence - he won the Grade 1 Novice Chase here five years ago after finishing a gallant second in the National Hunt Chase just twenty-four days previously. It is worth noting that the National Hunt Chase was of course run over four miles at that time! He is two from three here with his only defeat coming in December this year in a race where many of the fences were omitted. It was also his seasonal reappearance and he was entitled to get tired, particularly after getting the better of an early pace duel with Frodon. He may not be over Cheltenham but there is a good chance he may recover, he is a tough sort and he has the best form in the race. I think he should be at least challenging for favouritism and the price may look a gift in hindsight.
0.5pt win Native River (13/2 General) Aintree 2.50 *Use BOG firms
Comments
Post a Comment