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Sunday 20th February

It is brilliant to have the excellent Betfair Hurdle card to look forward to today. There are plenty of interesting horses on show, not least last year's RSA Chase winner Champ, as he reappears over the minimum trip. Realistically, it is impossible to see him winning a Grade 2 at this trip considering it took him almost the full trip to hit the front in the 3 mile Novice at the Festival. It is clearly being used to get a run into him without bottoming him out over 3 miles so close to Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson loves running his horses at Newbury too and I am sure he will be quite fit with the Gold Cup less than four weeks away. The race doesn't interest me from a betting point of view though and instead I want to look at the hugely competitive Betfair Hurdle. 

On To Victory was a winner for the blog in the November Handicap off a mark of 99 and that alone suggests he could be well-handicapped off a mark of 129. The fact that he hasn't shown it yet is of little concern as there can be excuses made for most of his efforts. In his six hurdles starts to date, he has only completed three times, unseating once and falling twice. That is hardly inspiring form figures but is more than factored into his price I think. In truth, he is not that bad of a jumper, and has looked much improved this season. His fall at Kempton behind Third Time Lucki on his penultimate start was a typical example of a novicey fall, just knuckling over on landing. He was still in contention in that race at the time and while he probably would not have beaten the winner, he could have finished a clear second which further suggests he may be reasonably treated here. He got his head in front last time at Wincanton and the feeling is that it was used purely as a confidence booster with today in mind. He fits the ideal profile for the race, albeit a second-season novice but thoroughly unexposed over hurdles. Furthermore, the strong pace of a big-field handicap is sure to suit. There are many dangers and even more likely winners, but at the prices and with attractive place terms, he looks decent value, granted a clear round.


0.5pt eway On To Victory (18/1 General) Newbury 3.35 * use firms paying 6+ places, BOG Prices


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