What a weekend we have in store. The Dublin Racing Festival has had some negativity since its inception (mostly due to ground conditions admittedly), but one cannot argue with the quality racing we are being treated to this weekend. We start with four Grade 1's tomorrow and a Grade 2 bumper that is a Grade 1 in all but name. As well as that, there is excellent racing from Sandown (hopefully) if it passes a morning inspection and the rescheduled Cleeve Hurdle also takes place at Wetherby. I have focused my attention on Leopardstown however, as I was surprised to hear that Sandown passed the inspection on Friday afternoon. I was tempted by Hitman in the Scilly Isles' Novices Chase as I think the trip will suit after staying on well behind Allmankind last time. That race was run at a frantic gallop and I think he might have too much speed for his rivals here late on but I won't put him forward as a selection. It does appear to be a really strong renewal and the price is short enough.
At Leopardstown, the Grade 1 action sees four solid favourites but it is highly unlikely they will all win and there is plenty of value in opposing some of them at least. Chacun Pour Soi looks bulletproof in the Dublin Chase and he is one that I certainly won't be taking on. He looked the real deal at Christmas (yet again) and he took care of Min rather easily in the corresponding race last year. I expect him to enhance his Champion Chase credentials. The Novice Chase over 2 miles promises to be run at a lightening pace with many front-runners in the field. Energumene will have to be as good as he has looked to date to make all or even most under the expected pace pressure. Felix Desjy ran a bizarre race at Christmas and Unexcepted can also have a tendency to freewheel. I think the favourite is the best horse in the race but it is not a race I have any interest in getting involved in. Darver Star could possibly be the one that is overpriced and he ran very well at the meeting last year when a close second to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
That takes us on nicely tp the Irish Champion Hurdle. I do feel this could be the day that Honeysuckle loses her unbeaten record. However, the others, Sharjah apart, have plenty of question marks. I was tempted to give Saint Roi another chance as he is a horse I think has huge potential but the lack of a real reason for his disappointing run at Christmas is enough to put me off. Honeysuckle and Sharjah are the solid yardsticks but you can argue that Abacadabras, Saint Roi and Saldier have the potential to beat them on their day and there are too many unknown quantities for me to make a confident selection. I have Saint Roi in an ante-post multiple for Cheltenham that was taking shape so I hope he can resume his progress and consign the disappointing run last time to history but unfortunately the hope is fading.
I am keen to get involved in the other Grade 1, the opening race of the meeting, the 2m 6f novice hurdle. There is no doubt the Gaillard Du Mesnil was hugely impressive last time out at Leopardstown. The clock as well as the subsequent form all back up the visual impression the imposing Willie Mullins inmate made on that occasion. The second and third have both won since and it is clear that Gaillard Du Mesnil improved from his first run. If I was to be super critical, I felt he was a little keen and the question mark over whether this longer trip will suit. On his first run of the season, Gaillard Du Mesnil was no match for the re-opposing Holymacapony in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown. Holymacapony then ran too bad to be true next time at Navan in a Grade 2 and he is entitled to another chance based on his run at Punchestown. While Gaillard Du Mesnil almost certainly improved from his first run to his second (travelled well before fading), he has 8 lengths to find with the selection on that run and I think this longer trip will suit Henry De Bromhead's charge more as he looks a real galloper. While I think the favourite is the most likely winner, Holymacapony is certainly the value.
There are also two outstanding handicaps on the card and in the 2m handicap chase, I am keen on the prospects of another De Bromhead inmate, Epson Du Houx. He was incredibly impressive last time out at Naas when he could have won by any distance and although up 13lb in a better race, he looks like a chaser going places. He is fancied to continue his progression and I believe he might be a Graded horse before the season is over. If that is the case, he is potentially still well handicapped off a mark of 138.
In the Ladbrokes Hurdle, I am giving one final chance to Eclair De Beaufeu to win again on this card having won the Handicap Chase on the card 12 months ago. He was unfortunately a selection here when he came down 2 out at Fairyhouse in the handicap won by Advanced Virgo, the favourite for tomorrow's contest. Perhaps, my pocket is talking but I feel he would have gone very close on that occasion. He remains on the same mark of 135 (while Advanced Virgo has gone up 10lb) and he is weighted to go very close off that. As was pointed out on that occasion, the horse was bang there at the last in a County Hurdle off 136 a couple of seasons ago. He was run well at this meeting for the past two years. As mentioned above, he won the Handicap chase on this card last year off a mark of 140 and he was placed in this race the previous year as a 5-year-old off a mark of 130. There is an element of forgiveness here too as he ran very poorly last time but the stable were out of form and I imagine they were delighted to get round as he was after two falls previously. His jumping will need to improve as having watched him through the Fairyhouse race, it was amazing he was still there going to the second last after a number of sketchy jumps. Hopefully they have done plenty of schooling with him as the track is ideal and he is definitely well-handicapped if putting his best foot forward.
The Bumper is a cracking contest for a Grade 2 and I am really looking forward to it, despite the late defection of Sir Gerhard. I really like Kilcruit but I am not sure there is any value in his price, although if one of the above win I might have an interest in him. I would love to be there but I will settle for watching it on the couch. Whatever else, enjoy the day. It is great to have racing to entertain us in these times.
0.5pt win Holymacapony (8/1 General) Leopardstown 1.05
0.5pt win Epson Du Houx (11/2 General) Leopardstown 2.45
0.5pt eway Eclair De Beaufeu (33/1 General) Leopardstown 3.50 *use firms paying 6 places
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