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Friday 9th October

There is some brilliant racing on both fronts tomorrow at a time of year when it's hard to decide which to focus on. The card at Chepstow tomorrow should be informative for the rest of the season but nothing stands out as a betting proposition. Instead, I have found one at Newmarket that I think is hugely overpriced and in my opinion should be close to the head of the market. 

In the Old Rowley Cup Handicap at 4.10, a double figure price about Louganini is an insult to both the horses ability and his last couple of runs. On his last start at Sandown, he was a slightly unlucky loser having had little or no room in the closing stages. That effort can be marked up as the race was not run to suit and it was on quick ground which would not have helped Roger Charlton's gelding. The form has been franked since too with the second winning next time at Goodwood. However, it was his previous effort at Haydock on soft ground that gives me the most confidence that the horse is well over-priced. On that occasion, he made up huge ground late on to get up in the shadows of the post, pulling miles clear with a decent yardstick who benefited from a brilliant Adam Kirby ride. Louganini was only raised 5lbs for that effort and as a result he meets Surrey Pride on 6lbs better terms tomorrow than on that occasion, when tomorrow's favourite could only finish fifth (beaten over 9 lengths). I am not doubting that Surrey Pride has improved, but I think they were both inconvenienced by being held up in that Haydock race and Louganini just didn't get a chance to show it last time on quick ground. The step up in trip should suit based on what he has shown so far and I think he is twice the price he should be. 


0.5pt eway Louganini (14/1 Bet365, 12/1 General) Ayr 3.40 *use firms paying 5 places

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