Skip to main content

Friday 9th October

There is some brilliant racing on both fronts tomorrow at a time of year when it's hard to decide which to focus on. The card at Chepstow tomorrow should be informative for the rest of the season but nothing stands out as a betting proposition. Instead, I have found one at Newmarket that I think is hugely overpriced and in my opinion should be close to the head of the market. 

In the Old Rowley Cup Handicap at 4.10, a double figure price about Louganini is an insult to both the horses ability and his last couple of runs. On his last start at Sandown, he was a slightly unlucky loser having had little or no room in the closing stages. That effort can be marked up as the race was not run to suit and it was on quick ground which would not have helped Roger Charlton's gelding. The form has been franked since too with the second winning next time at Goodwood. However, it was his previous effort at Haydock on soft ground that gives me the most confidence that the horse is well over-priced. On that occasion, he made up huge ground late on to get up in the shadows of the post, pulling miles clear with a decent yardstick who benefited from a brilliant Adam Kirby ride. Louganini was only raised 5lbs for that effort and as a result he meets Surrey Pride on 6lbs better terms tomorrow than on that occasion, when tomorrow's favourite could only finish fifth (beaten over 9 lengths). I am not doubting that Surrey Pride has improved, but I think they were both inconvenienced by being held up in that Haydock race and Louganini just didn't get a chance to show it last time on quick ground. The step up in trip should suit based on what he has shown so far and I think he is twice the price he should be. 


0.5pt eway Louganini (14/1 Bet365, 12/1 General) Ayr 3.40 *use firms paying 5 places

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Royal Ascot Day 2

What an amazing day of racing we witnessed yesterday, sheer quality from start to finish. Personally, for me the highlight was Baatash winning the Kings Stand and putting the "myth" about Ascot to bed. There was no shame in being beaten by Blue Point a couple of times but he thoroughly deserved a win at the Royal meeting. For a horse that has achieved so much, I wonder if perhaps he doesn't get the credit he deserves? A debate for another day perhaps as today's card has taken quite a lot of time to go through! Again, my initial thought for day two is proceed with caution. There are a host of difficult handicaps with any amount of potentially well-handicapped horses and the Group races on the card offer little respite in terms of difficulty level. Addeybb would be a strong fancy if the rain arrives in time but to back him now would be guessing. The trendy horse for the day is clearly Ranch Hand for the concluding handicap at 4.40. I don't pay too much attention to ...
Post a Comment
Read more

1000 Guineas Day

The early signs are that the 2000 Guineas was a very good renewal despite the interrupted preparations for the first Classic of the season. The time was the fastest in the races history and the horses that were expected to run well beforehand fought out the finish. I am sure it will produce plenty of winners throughout the season. Of course the first thought for most people will be the Derby and my initial thought is that ante-post favourite prior to the Guineas, Military March, will find it hard enough to reverse the form with Kameko, who was very strong at the finish. Hopefully Kameko will turn up and we will know for sure in a four weeks time. Moving on to Sunday's action and it looks quite a tricky card, with few standout bets, particularly from a price perspective. The Buckhounds Stakes at 1.50 might be the exception as the Mark Johnston trained Communique  looks a worthy favourite. While the price has contracted throughout the day, I still feel he is worth a bet at anything...
Post a Comment
Read more

Saturday 13th November

 Cheltenham is back and I simply cannot hide my excitement for this meeting as it is one of my favourite weekends of the season. I think perhaps it has something to do with the hope and aspirations for the jumps season ahead. At this time of year, there is hardly a day that goes by without a "potential" Grade 1 horse making their debut over either hurdles or fences. Of course, the results vary and there are plenty of bubbles burst! Looking ahead to tomorrow and the feature Paddy Power Gold Cup looks a cracking contest and one could make a reasonable case for at least half of the field. Those of you who read my Eyecatchers column on Attheraces will have seen that I mentioned the run of Zanza in the Haldon Gold Cup recently and I think he looks tailor made for this test, despite having course figures of 60FP.  His run here last December when he fell 3 out in the race won by Sky Pirate was enough to suggest the course should not be a problem. It was probably too far out to know ...
Post a Comment
Read more