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July Cup Day at Newmarket

I was delighted to see Nazeef win the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes yesterday at Newmarket having marked her out as a Group horse in the making before she won her Kempton listed race on reappearance this year. Admittedly I should have kept the faith and kept following her but hopefully some of you did. Thursday wasn't as satisfying as Dancin Inthestreet was unlucky again when racing alone for the second half of the race and could only finish third. Moving on to today's action and it isn't a card that particularly jumps out at me from a betting point of view. When the races were priced initially, I found it hard to find something that was over-priced. That is always my first instinct as you have then got the percentages in your favour. 

As a result, I have reverted to plan b as such - find a horse that I think will be solid and give a good run for investment. That then turns the percentages in your favour again, while also having the option of taking a profit or covering your stake if Betfair is your betting medium of choice. Golden Horde fits the bill perfectly, having obliged as a winner for us at Ascot, and I think he can beat the older sprinters in receipt of 6lb (4 out of the last 5 winners were 3 year olds). The older 6 furlong horses seem to be good, but just perhaps lacking a real star. The close proximity of a few of them in the finish at Ascot backs this up and I think Clive Cox's 3 year old could be a class above. He was a dominant winner of the Commonwealth Cup, making all and always in command. There is a valid argument that Clive Cox's horses are taking a big step forward from their first run as there have been quite a few examples of this in recent days. The fact that Golden Horde was running in a Group 1, he may have been more ready than others, but he is still likely to improve, as the trainer comments in the Racing Post would suggest. He may not need to do so to win, but if he improves again, he will be extremely difficult to beat. As I said at Ascot, I think he could be a proper Group 1 sprinter this year and if that is to be the case, I think he should win here with conditions in his favour. Threat could be just that dropping down in trip having travelled well in the St. James' Palace although he may need the ground to dry out to be seen to best effect. 

1pt win Golden Horde (5/2 Bet 365, William Hill, 9/4 General) Newmarket 3.35 *use BOG firms

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