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Derby Day at Epsom

What a weekend of racing we have in store!! As if the Derby and Oaks at Epsom is not enough, we have a brilliant renewal of the Eclipse tomorrow as well as some top quality action from France and Ireland!! It is one of those weekends that there is so much racing it is easy to get carried away and have more attempts than one normally would. As always, patience is so important when looking at making a profit in the long-term. The Derby is a prime example of people putting up selections for the sake of it. There are reasons why every horse in the field can't win (in the case of some, quite a few reasons) from the draw to stamina doubts or their form not being to the required standard. There seems to be a huge amount of guesswork involved and for me it is impossible to be confident about anything hitting the frame, let alone winning. I don't think Kameko will stay as he beat two horses who barely get the mile at Newmarket as was proven at Ascot when Palace Pier put them both in their place. English King has the draw to overcome and his trainer hasn't been there and done it. I was starting to come down on the side of Mogul purely because I think he will take a big step forward but he will need to just to reverse the form with Pyledriver and that still may not be near good enough. There are more reasons why a horse won't win than reasons why the will so I will be happy to watch it.

The Oaks however is a completely different matter and I would be astounded if the winner comes from outside the top three in the market. I believe there is huge value in Ennistymon for Aidan O'Brien and Seamie Heffernan. She does have a lot to find with Frankly Darling on the face of it, but she was closing at Ascot and I think she will be ridden a lot closer to the pace tomorrow. Ennistymon took a huge step forward at Ascot and she may improve more than Frankly Darling as this race would have been her aim. In any case, I think the first three look a cut above and she looks a cracking each-way bet. I just hope there are no non-runners to make sure we get the 3 places!!! 

In the finale at Epsom, Muntadab can make a bold bid from the front. If you were backing front runners over 7f at Epsom over the past 5 seasons, you would be sitting on a handsome profit, but that is only the first point that suggests Muntadab is worth an investment. He has looked extremely well handicapped in a couple of runs of late, only collared on the line at Musselburgh on Wednesday. He has also won a few times after a quick reappearance so that should not be too much of a concern. Roger Fell has his team in good form and Ben Curtis is a jockey at the top of his game so everything looks in place for a good run once he can get to the front. 


1pt eway Ennistymon (6/1 General) Epsom 3.40 *use BOG firms

1pt win Muntadab (5/1 General) Epsom 5.35 *use BOG firms




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