While the feature tomorrow evening is the 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, it doesn't strike me as an attractive betting heat. Ballydoyle are throwing a number of darts at the unbeaten Siskin, who is the form pick. While I think the favourite is vulnerable, virtually any one of them could win and I have doubts about a few of them getting home over the stiff mile. I won't be getting involved in the race.
The Newbury card, however, looks much more attractive from a betting point of view. The 5.25 promises to be a highly informative event, with a few horse that could potentially finish the season on much higher marks than they are currently. The one I like is Bear Force One who has been extremely popular since the market formed. To my eye at least, he didn't appear overly comfortable on the undulations of Newmarket last time. He will be much better on this flatter track and has already an impressive win over course and distance last September. He followed that effort with a close second at Kempton (headed close home) but that was over a mile and I think 7f is ideal. That race has worked out really well too, the fourth and sixth both won next time, and he should be very competitive off a 3lb higher mark.
The second selection also goes at Newbury, an hour later in the 6.25. It might be 11 races since he last got his head in front but Lunar Jet has a lot in his favour on his return to Newbury. As a result of that string of defeats, he is 3lb lower than his last winning mark. He is two from two at Newbury (both at 10f) and the second of those was probably his best performance on a racecourse. He will need to improve from his reappearance run at Newcastle to reverse the form with Moll Davis, but there is a chance he will given conditions and he is five times the price.
1 pt win Bear Force One (9/2 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral) Newbury 5.25
0.5 pt win Lunar Jet (9/1 Bet365, 8/1 General) Newbury 6.25
The Newbury card, however, looks much more attractive from a betting point of view. The 5.25 promises to be a highly informative event, with a few horse that could potentially finish the season on much higher marks than they are currently. The one I like is Bear Force One who has been extremely popular since the market formed. To my eye at least, he didn't appear overly comfortable on the undulations of Newmarket last time. He will be much better on this flatter track and has already an impressive win over course and distance last September. He followed that effort with a close second at Kempton (headed close home) but that was over a mile and I think 7f is ideal. That race has worked out really well too, the fourth and sixth both won next time, and he should be very competitive off a 3lb higher mark.
The second selection also goes at Newbury, an hour later in the 6.25. It might be 11 races since he last got his head in front but Lunar Jet has a lot in his favour on his return to Newbury. As a result of that string of defeats, he is 3lb lower than his last winning mark. He is two from two at Newbury (both at 10f) and the second of those was probably his best performance on a racecourse. He will need to improve from his reappearance run at Newcastle to reverse the form with Moll Davis, but there is a chance he will given conditions and he is five times the price.
1 pt win Bear Force One (9/2 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral) Newbury 5.25
0.5 pt win Lunar Jet (9/1 Bet365, 8/1 General) Newbury 6.25
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