Thursday at Aintree threw up some strange results and Friday doesn't look much easier in truth. One man that had a good day was Paul Nicholls and he could have another good day on Friday with plenty of strong chances. The pick of those is probably Bravemansgame who won't have anything like Bob Olinger to deal with here and the Ballymore third should improve for the step up in trip, particularly on this ground. It will be interesting to see how he fares but he isn't a bet at the prices for all that he could be a class above this opposition.
I am interested in a couple of his stable companions though. Politologue missed his Cheltenham assignment at the eleventh hour but that might be a blessing in disguise. He is a horse that is definitely best when fresh and his form figures after a break of 60 days or more read U111211. Whether 72 days will be quite enough to see him at his best is anyone's guess but what we do know is that if he is at his best, he will take a hell of a lot of beating here. Those performances above include a Champion Chase by 9 1/2 lengths and a Tingle Creek by 7 lengths. He also has good course form and won this race after a great battle with Min 3 years ago. He finished second to Min a year later when admittedly well beaten but he was after a hard race at Cheltenham that year. On his other visit here, he looked like he was going to win the Grade 1 Novice Chase in 2017 before stumbling and falling at the last. Like any Grade 1, there are plenty of dangers. Fakir Doudairies has been running well without winning on his last couple of starts but the Ryanair may have left its mark on him. If he is over his exertions, he is certainly a big danger. Dashel Drasher is a worry too, particularly as he may be the pace in the race and the selection is probably best when leading. Notebook disappointed at Cheltenham but he doesn't run well there and if he can reproduce his Leopardstown form he can go close too. I'm a big fan of Master Tommytucker as regular readers will know but I find it hard to see him having the resolution to win a competitive Grade 1 and I feel he is better going right-handed in any case. The fly in the ointment may be Nuts Well who has been really progressive this season and form is really starting to stack up. Still, if Politologue is at his best and I think the break means he could be, then he looks likely to go very close.
I am also keen on another Nicholls horse who is coming here off a break which should suit him well in the Topham at 4.05 over the National fences. Modus' record off a break of 100 days or more reads 2131161, the 6th a very creditable effort in the Galway plate when the trip just stretched his stamina to the limit. In November, he was incredibly impressive here off a 465 day break to win a handicap over 2m 4f by 8 lengths. That was off a mark of 141 but he was incredibly impressive and then ran very well over these fences a month later off tomorrow's mark. It was interesting that he ran so well on that occasion without much time to recover. The effort can be marked up too given that he was held up in a race that it certainly those to race near the pace. In actual fact, he was the only horse to finish in the first four (that pulled clear) to be held up. The winner was clearly well handicapped and has won again in the interim while a few in behind have won since too. With conditions to suit, he looks a bigger price than he should be.
The other one I like in the Topham is Caribean Boy who I have had in the back of my mind for this race for a long time. His run at Newbury in November when comfortably disposing of Fiddlerontheroof, with Getaway Trump miles back in third, marked him down as an exciting horse and one to follow for the season. That was a very good time too and it has slightly surprised me that he hasn't won since. However, circumstances have conspired against him a little, having very little chance in the Plate last time when held up off a steady pace. I still believe he is reasonably handicapped and these fences could suit as he can be an exuberant jumper.
I don't have a strong opinion on the Novice Chase and while I am a huge fan of Dusart and think he could go right to the top, he is not much value considering he met with a setback since his last run . He is also very inexperienced compared to some of his rivals who set a decent standard so I'll take a watching brief.
1pt win Politologue (3/1 General) Aintree 3.25
0.5pt eway Modus (14/1 General) Aintree 4.05 *Use firms paying 6 places
0.5pt eway Caribean Boy (8/1 General) Aintree 4.05 *Use firms paying 6 places
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