Grand National Day

Aintree has been one of those weeks for me unfortunately. Clan Des Obeaux (King George) and Abacadabras (Champion Hurdle) both came back to haunt me on Thursday while the three selections I gave yesterday proved simply appalling. The two in the Topham jumped the worst of the whole field and Politologue apparently bled. I also got Fakir all wrong and he bounced back from his Cheltenham run in style. Today is another day though and I am down but certainly not out. 

The card looks as difficult today and the question all week of how horses recover from Cheltenham is one that there is no definitive answer to. Thyme Hill was a horse I was sorry to see miss Cheltenham and his record fresh suggests he should go close today but he did have a setback and I am not going to suggest backing him at a short price. I found the two in the Novice hurdle hard to split as I like My Drogo and while the Irish have won everything in terms of novice hurdles, he may well be the best of the English novices. 

Happygolucky was tempting but I thought he was a little short after getting beaten at Cheltenham. This track may suit better though as I felt he struggled up the hill. It may have been stamina too and he did have to make up ground a couple of times after his fences. He looked the winner turning in and traded accordingly so a flat 3m may be just what he needs. I'm still hurting from that reverse though and not ready to support him again just yet. I won't have a play in the other races as nothing stood out to me.

Grand National Preview

The biggest race in the calendar is upon us. Whether it is here or in the UK, virtually anyone that ever watches a horse race, watches the National at Aintree. It has undoubtedly been more viewer friendly over the years and it is not the lottery it once was. In fact, it has been a race that has been quite favourable to those near to the top of the market of late. Since 2000, 11 winners have gone off at 16/1 or less, with many more fancied horses filling the placings.

Like any big handicap, it helps to start by ruling out some that don’t meet the profile of the race. While not an exact science, looking at previous winners can guide us towards what we need to look out for. Of course, there are horses that break all these statistics from time to time but I have found it to be very useful.  With the National, the first place I like to start is with age. As no 7-year-old has won in my lifetime, they are the first to go. On the other end of the age spectrum, horses older than 11 have a very poor recent record. Amberleigh House was the last to win in 2004 so they can be bypassed too. Those combined get removes 7 from our list of 40. Definitely Red, Takingrisks, Vieux Lion Rouge, The Long Mile, Farclas, Sub Lieutenant and Blaklion are the first to fail the profiling of our Grand National winner.

It goes without saying that to win over 4m 2f, you must have stamina in abundance. Nine out of the last ten winners had previously won over 3m plus. As well as Farclas and The Long Mile already mentioned above, Minella Times, Discorama, Class Conti and Balko Des Flos have yet to win over this trip. While it is important not to have shown your hand throughout the season, it is hard to win a race such as this without showing some form. Nine of the last ten winners had at least one top three finish in their three previous starts. This takes out Milan Native, Hogan’s Height, Alpha Des Obeaux, Minellacelebration, Jett, Tout Est Permis and Ballyoptic.

Like any big sporting event, it is hard to turn on a switch on the day. That counts for the above point in relation to form but it also means that horses find it hard to win here without having enough races during the season. A lack of match practice in effect can see horses found out as they go quite hard here considering the distance. Eight of the last ten winners had run at least three times during that season and this is where we lose Kimberlite Candy, Bristol De Mai, Anibale Fly, OK Corral, Give Me A Copper, Talkischeap and Ami Desbois. There are many other trends to consider but this is where I have drawn the line and have a rather big shortlist of 15 remaining. I am not saying the others can’t win but history tells us they are less likely than those that remain. In effect, you are playing the percentages. This is my process and has been reasonably successful in big handicaps. Of course, there are flaws, for example ruling out Discorama based on not winning over 3m before as he clearly stays. You must have a plan though and if you start making exceptions you will end up back where you started. Time to start going through the form book!!

The obvious starting point is Cloth Cap, the deserving favourite. Many people have mentioned he is too short but would they lay him at 8/1? I certainly would not! Betting is a two-way street and for every bet there must be a layer. Generally nowadays, with mature markets, horses at the top of the market tend to find their price in the bigger races. I think his price is just about right now, with the 7/2 and 4/1 on offer earlier in the week certainly on the short side. He has a stone in hand on official ratings and while that may be overstating the form of his last win, he certainly is well-handicapped. He was ultra-impressive at Newbury before that in what is usually one of the strongest handicaps of the season. There is no doubt that he has improved for prominent tactics and the fitting of cheekpieces. He looks extremely progressive and it is hard to pick holes in him. He jumps well and he was third in a Scottish National two years ago so stamina should not be a problem. He will love the ground and it is hard to see him not finishing in the frame granted reasonable luck. The fact that he should be up there throughout should also help in that regard as he is less likely to meet trouble from fallers.

Any Second Now was next on my list as he looks like he has been trained for this with two years (as the race didn’t take place last year). He has very good form over shorter distances but the longest trip he has raced (excluding his fall in the Irish National) saw him win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. That was off a mark of 143 and he was certainly not stopping so he should get the extra distance. He beat Castlegrace Paddy over 2m in a Grade 2 last time which has been franked since with the runner-up going close at Fairyhouse.

Of the others, Burrows Saint was fancied to run well last year and has National experience winning the Irish version a couple of years ago. He represents the Topham winning Mullins team with Patrick in the saddle. He was second to stablemate Acapella Bourgeois in the Bobbyjo Chase (in receipt of 6lb) and had that horse behind when winning the Irish National. They are closer than the betting suggests and there is a 7lb swing for the seven and a quarter lengths. Of the two, I would slightly favour Acapella Bourgeois at the prices, while admittedly he might prefer softer conditions. That Irish National run was on good ground though and I like his prominent running style around here. The other at bigger prices is Mister Malarky. He loves staying chases on flat tracks on good ground and while not the most consistent, he is very effective given the right conditions. He also ran very well here in the handicap chase earlier on the card two years ago, a race that can often throw up future National winners. The stable form would be the slight worry and he would have possibly been the selection only for that. I actually did have a small bet on him ante-post at bigger prices. His run behind Clondaw Castle at Kempton last time was very good and showed he may have benefitted from his recent wind operation.

In summary, I would be mildly surprised, but not shocked, if the winner didn’t come from these five and apart from the favorite, I found it hard to separate the others. Hard as it may seem to believe after many hours of research and over 1000 words that is all comes back to the horse at the head of the betting. However, his current price gives a better return if he wins than if any of the others place and in the end that was the deciding factor. It is not original but he is clearly the most likely winner and I would be astonished if he does not finish in the frame if he completes. The others are all viable alternatives and I certainly wouldn’t put you off any of them. If pinned for a next best selection, it would be Any Second Now but I found it so hard to split them, that could have changed a few times by the time 5.15 comes around. Whatever you decide, be sensible and enjoy the day for the spectacle that it is. Hopefully, all the horses and jockeys return safe as that is the most important thing. Good luck.

0.5pt eway Cloth Cap (11/2 General) Aintree 4.05 *Use firms paying 6 places