Horses that could make amends at Cheltenham 2021

With the lack of activity on the racing front set to continue for another while yet, I decided to cast an early eye over the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. While making any concrete predictions at this time is probably ill-advised, I have put together a list of horses that may gain compensation next March. I avoided horses that won this year simply because it is obvious which of those are most likely to follow-up next year and they are priced accordingly. As highlighted in my last blog, the best place to find winners at Cheltenham throughout the season is Cheltenham itself. However, the first place to start for finding Cheltenham winners is the previous Festival. I believe that we have seen at least 12 of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival winners run at this season’s festival based on analysis of the results over the past five seasons. If my opinion that the quality from the 2020 Festival (particularly the novice hurdlers) was above average is proven to be correct, we may even have seen more. Maybe it might be time to have a look at those races again…

Firstly, I started by looking at the statistics from the past few seasons. I would have guessed that a “fair share” of winners would have run at the previous festival but I was slightly surprised by the numbers. Over the past five seasons, there have been 64 winners that appeared at the previous Cheltenham festival, an average of 12.8 a season. While one might think that out of a total of 140, that still only amounts to less than half, it is important to remember the make-up of some of the races mean they are unlikely to meet this trend. In addition to the two 4-year-old races, the Champion bumper winner is highly unlikely to have run at the Festival before. Furthermore, the novice hurdle winners that have previously run at the Festival are quite rare with just 2 winners in the past 5 years (coincidentally both this year with Envoi Allen and Concertista). Hypothetically, taking those out, it is 62 out of 105, which makes it both a more realistic figure and more attractive as an angle.

Anyway, that was only my base for the information as what I wanted to look at was how they performed at the Festival. Is it worth spending hours scrolling through the Festival also-rans in the hope of gaining compensation next March? The answer was simple, when it comes to looking at potential future Festival winners, there is no need to look too far past the obvious. Of the 64 winners in the period analysed, 19 (30%) had won at the Festival the previous year and almost three-quarters had finished in the first five places. The horses that were exceptions rather than the rule include fallers Annie Power (would have won Mares Hurdle 2015) and Al Boum Photo (would have placed in 2018 RSA) as well as a few horses who changed from hurdles to fences or vice-versa. Looking at this year as an example, only Epatante (who clearly did not give her running last season) finished outside the first 5 in 2019 from the 10 winners the meeting provided.

Epatante and the Mares Novice Hurdle from 2019 brings me on to my next point. Every year, there seems to be a race from the previous Festival that provides a few winners. This year it was the Mares Novice Hurdle from 2019 that included Concertista and Indefatigable as well as the Champion Hurdle winner. Astonishingly, despite the apparent strength of the form, Indefatigable was allowed start a relatively unconsidered 25/1 before winning the concluding race on the Friday. While not producing as many winners, the 2019 Bumper was just as strong with a winner and two more going close this year from the first four home. When assessing the quality of this year’s races, one must admit to an element of guesswork with no subsequent form lines from the other Spring festivals to back up the point. However, prior to the Festival, the consensus was that the novice hurdlers this season were well above average and I think the Festival only served to enhance this viewpoint. When assessing the strength of form initially, I like to see the horses from the top of the market feature in the finish. It tells you that the race developed as expected and that previous form was upheld, for the most part anyway. I believe we will certainly be seeing a lot more of the horses that filled the places in the novice hurdle events, with the possibility that the winner of each could be right out of the top drawer. They would certainly be high on the shortlist of potential follow-up winners in 2021.

Horses that could make amends at Cheltenham Festival 2021

Thyme Hill

Having already stressed my confidence in this year’s novice hurdlers, it makes sense to mention Thyme Hill for the 2021 Stayers Hurdle. The Stayers Hurdle has already been earmarked as his intended target and the division looks open to a newcomer given the uncertainty surrounding Paisley Park and the vulnerability of this year’s winner to a quality performer. The Albert Bartlett has produced the winner of the following season’s Stayers Hurdle for each of the past 3 years and of those, only Penhill ran as well in the demanding novice test. While I am not certain he would have won (and anyone who is either way is probably speaking from their pocket), he certainly would have finished a lot closer had he not been squeezed for room on a couple of occasions in the closing stages. He boasts top class Cheltenham form having also finished third to Envoi Allen (and ahead of Abacadabras) in the 2019 Champion Bumper and won a Grade 2 earlier this season.

Abacadabras

The first two home in the Supreme would obviously be on most people’s shortlists for next season and they pulled a long way clear of what looked a deep contest prior to the start. While Shishkin would have been an extremely unlucky loser, one feels that the race did not quite go to plan for the runner-up either. He was left slightly at the start and of those that filled the first four places, he was the only one that was outside the first half of the field early in the race. Furthermore, he was then in front a lot sooner than he would have hoped, travelling ominously well turning in and unable to find anything to give him a lead going to the last. The end-to-end gallop of a Champion Hurdle would surely suit and again the trainer has already stated that he will be trained with that in mind.

Allaho

Having already stated my confidence in the novice hurdlers, I am doubtful the novice chasers from 2020 have the same strength in depth. However, I do believe the first three home in the RSA Chase will be worth following next season. Of the three, I feel the eventual third horse might be the best chance of a Festival winner next March if as expected he is aimed at the Ryanair. I am convinced he would have won the Marsh Novices Chase if he had lined up, but we will never know for sure. His front-running style and excellent jumping looks ideally suited to the Ryanair as prominent racers have a great record. The stable also have a good record in the race and while they have this year’s winner presumable being aimed at it too, Min is turning 10 and could be vulnerable to a younger rival.

Elixir D’Ainay

Elixir D’Ainay was probably the horse affected most by his wayward stablemate during the Supreme as he was taken right at his hurdles consistently from halfway and eventually came down having been impeded approaching the second last. At the time, he was still travelling well and given his proven stamina over further, there is every reason to believe he would have been involved in the finish. Prior to the Festival, he was a very respectable second to Envoi Allen over 2m 4f, after which I thought he may have been a Supreme candidate. He then pulled like a train for most of the race when upped in trip at the Dublin Racing Festival. At Leopardstown, he did remarkably well to finish as close as he did (beaten 6 lengths) and that form was franked at Cheltenham too. Given connections he may appear as a “Graded horse in a handicap” next March if not an obvious Arkle candidate, but for now, I would be very keen to track his progress. He seems thoroughly unexposed at the minimum trip.

Column of Fire

Having tracked this horse from the start of the season (although initially thinking he could be an Albert Bartlett horse), it was painful to see him fall at the last flight in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle. I felt at the time he had plenty left, particularly as he seems to be the type to keep finding. It will be interesting to see what the plan is for him next season. The connections have plenty of options for the novice chase division and it might be that they decide to keep him over hurdles. I would see him as an ideal type for the Pertemps if that were the case and the extra distance would be no problem to him. If he does go chasing, who knows where he might end up, but I am anxious to keep him in mind for the Festival next March.