What I learned from Cheltenham 2020

It is indeed a strange time in the world right now. It is an uncertain time, but the hope remains that together we will win the battle against Covid-19. The necessary restrictions have led to people being creative within the confines of their household and many have used the time productively to learn new skills. Social media is awash with videos, commentaries and various challenges from a variety of different sports and hobbies. As I feel I’m not able to dance well enough to post a video to Tik-Tok, I decided to start sharing some of my thoughts on my biggest passion – horse racing.

For racing enthusiasts, Cheltenham seems like a distant memory. In a typical year, Cheltenham would be followed by more enthralling action at Aintree, Fairyhouse and of course, Punchestown. For me, the last week would have been spent going through the runners for the Aintree showpiece followed by the inevitable post-race dissection of the world’s greatest spectacle. The Virtual version (while admittedly for a great cause and a welcome distraction) paled in comparison. I have used my spare time in the last few weeks to conduct a detailed review of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. While I would always have looked at the various results sporadically over the following 12 months, I wouldn’t have given it the same immediate attention in a normal year, but 2020 is not a normal year.

The Handicaps are no longer bookmaker benefits

There was a time not that long ago that the Cheltenham handicaps were fiendishly difficult, regularly throwing up shock winners. I remember often having to check the form after the race so unfamiliar was the winner and any semblance of its form. Not anymore, however, as one could even make the argument that they have become as punter friendly as the Graded races over the last few years. Of the 10 handicap races during the past festival, the only winner in double-figure odds came in the very last race on the Friday in the shape of 25/1 Indefatigable. The average SP in the handicaps was a fraction over 8/1 and 5 favourites obliged (one joint). The places weren’t much better for the bookmakers with numerous fancied horses hitting the frame throughout the week. This isn’t just an isolated year in this either as it has been a growing trend in the past number of years. In 2019, 3 winning favourites obliged and a further 3 winners were second best in the market. I read recently in a column that it is the belief that it is the biggest owners, buying the best horses and sending them to the best trainers. Whatever the reason, it certainly helps the general public find the winners.

The best trials are run at Cheltenham

The best place to find Cheltenham winners during the year is… you guessed it, Cheltenham. Year on year, we see horses that continually run well at Cheltenham and those that don’t bring their best form to the Cotswold’s. While Cheltenham Trials Day has been somewhat overshadowed by the Dublin Racing Festival, it has once again usurped its Irish counterpart in producing winners. Trials Day at Cheltenham once again contributed three winners (average over the past 5 years). The December meeting was even more prolific producing 4 winners (although Imperial Aura featured in both), while the November meeting produced an additional 2 Festival winners. Just for good measure the October and New Year’s Day meeting produced a further winner apiece. Of those 10 Festival winners, only Champ didn’t finish in the first 3 at Cheltenham earlier in the season and he looked certain to win the Dipper when falling at the penultimate fence. Whatever I do, I won’t be missing Cheltenham racing during the early stages of next season!

Gordon Elliott is (still) ahead of the handicapper

There is no doubting Gordon Elliott’s ability as a trainer of equine superstars. From the resurrection of Samcro to the wonderful handling of Envoi Allen, he displayed his full repertoire of skills a few weeks ago at Prestbury Park. However, when it comes to handicaps, the man is a genius. His record in the 2020 Cheltenham festival handicaps is almost hard to believe, to those unaware of the unique talent possessed by the Cullentra handler. Elliott won 4 of the 10 handicaps at the meeting showing a steady €12 profit to a level €1 stake. However, that only tells a part of the story, for his performance runs much deeper and stands up to even the greatest scrutiny. Elliott had 4 more seconds and 4 more of his runners finished in the top 5. Even allowing for each-way standard terms of a quarter the odds paying 4 places, his each-way level stakes profit would rise to above €30 to a level €1 stake. Despite this, he still had Column of Fire as an extremely unlucky (and painful for me) last flight faller in the Martin Pipe, one of just three handicaps where the maestro failed to make the frame. What is even more incredible is that not only does he know how to prepare a vast quantity of horses to run well at the Festival, but he also appears to know which one he prefers. Sire Du Berlais getting the better of his more fancied stablemate The Storyteller as they filled the first two places in the Pertemps denied the stable of a clean sweep of winners coming from their most fancied runner.

If I really fancy a horse for Cheltenham during the year, avoid procrastination.

I must make an admission here. This observation was triggered by a bet that I didn’t remember doing until after the race and went unrecorded in my notebook (a cardinal sin). I only noticed it when logging into my account after the Marsh Novice’s Chase and was delighted to find an increase in my funds. Immediately, I set out about investigating the source of this inflow. Sometime in early December, I was certain that Samcro was back to his best even though he had fallen in the Drinmore when challenging Fakir D’oudairies. Opinion was divided as to whether he would have won or not, but I had seen enough to have my first ante-post bet for Cheltenham 2020. Clearly, after his exploits in Limerick on Stephens Day, I had given up hope and erased it from my memory like a drunken mistake!! I even unwittingly cheered for Faugheen against my own financial betterment (although given the stakes that may have been something I did anyway). This is a double-edged sword though I’m afraid. After watching Imperial Aura shape like a non-stayer over 3 miles behind Pym at Cheltenham in December, I confidently added him to my Tracker and earmarked the Novices Handicap Chase on the Tuesday as the race he would win come March. However, despite maximum confidence I had a minimum bet. I waited and waited (albeit nibbling away), to ensure he would get in and painfully watched his price capitulate over the coming months before eventually getting strongly involved when the non-runner no bet safety net was introduced. A feeling of what could have been!!!